金融学院知识库

      人民币离岸市场的建设与发展是推动人民币国际化的重要途径，在我国资本项目尚未完全开放的情况下，能够补充人民币回流机制，暂缓人民币兑换障碍。“一带一路”建设将条件各异的国家联系起来，为人民币在“一带一路”沿线地区的流通和使用创造了广阔空间，但是目前人民币离岸市场缺少在“一带一路”沿线国家的布局，难以为境外人民币流通提供充分的平台支持。对人民币离岸市场在“一带一路”沿线国家进行空间布局，能够有序扩大人民币使用范围，促进离岸与在岸市场联通，助力“一带一路”建设，推动人民币国际化纵深发展。
      本文研究了人民币离岸市场在“一带一路”沿线国家的空间布局。首先，本文回顾了离岸市场的一般性概念以及人民币离岸市场发展的相关理论。其次，在介绍主要人民币离岸市场发展情况的基础上，分析了人民币离岸市场发展过程中存在的问题，并阐述了在“一带一路”沿线国家推进人民币离岸市场空间布局的现实意义。再次，从建设人民币离岸市场目标国的自身条件及其与中国的联系两方面出发，选取了17个指标构建人民币离岸市场空间布局的评价指标体系。然后，依据样本指标特征，运用K-均值聚类的方法研究41个样本国家的分类及排序，研究结果表明：人民币离岸市场在“一带一路”沿线国家空间布局的第一梯队目标国应是新加坡，第二梯队目标国可包括俄罗斯、马来西亚、印度，第三梯队目标国可包括哈萨克斯坦等16个国家，第四梯队目标国可包括卡塔尔、匈牙利等21个国家。之后，通过因子分析研究各梯队目标国的指标差异，据以做出相应的策略安排，研究结果表明：对人民币离岸市场在“一带一路”沿线国家进行空间布局，在第一梯队目标国推动形成全球性人民币离岸市场，在第二梯队目标国建设区域性人民币离岸市场，在第三梯队目标国发展人民币出口信贷、基础设施专项贷款等创新业务并重点在哈萨克斯坦建设次区域性人民币离岸市场，在第四梯队目标国深化贸易及货币合作以激发人民币实际需求,并将卡塔尔和匈牙利作为建设重要国别人民币离岸市场的潜在目标国。最后，根据实证研究结果，从加强人民币离岸市场在“一带一路”沿线国家空间布局的顶层设计、加强政治合作、加强经济金融合作、加强文化交流等方面提出相关政策建议。

      The construction and development of RMB offshore market is an important way to promote RMB internationalization. In the case that China’s capital account has not yet been fully opened, RMB offshore market can help offshore RMB flow back and ease the barriers of RMB exchange. The “Belt and Road” construction connects countries with different conditions and creates an opportunity to expand the circulation and use of RMB in the areas along the route. However, the current layout of RMB offshore market along the “Belt and Road” is too scarce to provide sufficient platform support for overseas RMB circulation. The spatial layout of the RMB offshore market along the “Belt and Road” can expand the scope of RMB use in an orderly manner, promote the connection between the offshore and onshore markets, support the construction of the “Belt and Road” initiative, and promote the internationalization of RMB in depth.

      This paper studies the spatial layout of the RMB offshore market in the countries along the “Belt and Road”. Firstly, this research reviews the general concepts of offshore market and related theories about the development of RMB offshore market. Secondly, after introducing the development of the main RMB offshore markets, the paper analyzes the existing problems in the development of RMB offshore market, and expounds the practical significance of promoting the spatial layout of the RMB offshore market in the countries along the “Belt and Road”. Thirdly, according to the target country's own conditions and its connection with China, 17 indicators were selected to construct an evaluation index system for the spatial layout of the RMB offshore market. Then, the K-means clustering method is used to study the classification and ranking of 41 sample countries in the basis of indicators’ characteristics. The results show that the first echelon to layout the RMB offshore market spatially in the countries along the “Belt and Road” is Singapore and the second echelon include Russia, Malaysia, and India. The third echelon include 16 countries such as Kazakhstan, and the fourth echelon include 21 countries such as Qatar and Hungary. After that, the indicator differences of the target countries of each echelon were studied through factor analysis, and corresponding strategic arrangements were made accordingly. The research results show that, to layout the RMB offshore market spatially in the countries along the “Belt and Road”, the target country in the first echelon could promote the formation of a global RMB offshore market and the second-tier target countries could build regional RMB offshore market. The third-tier target countries should develop innovative RMB business and focus on building a sub-regional RMB offshore market in Kazakhstan. The fourth-tier target countries should enhance trade and currency cooperation to stimulate actual demand for offshore RMB and take Qatar and Hungary as the target countries to build RMB offshore market of important countries. Finally, based on the empirical research results, relevant policy recommendations were put forward in terms of strengthening the top-level design of the spatial layout of RMB offshore market in the countries along the “Belt and Road”, strengthening political cooperation, strengthening economic and financial cooperation, and strengthening cultural exchanges.