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金融危机以来，我国制造业面临发达国家高端制造业回流及发展中国家低端制造业兴起的双重压力，然而我国大多数制造业仍处在“微笑曲线”的低端，以消耗自然资源与破坏环境为代价，这对我国经济发展十分不利。因此，制造业亟需寻找转型升级的有效路径，以实现由大到强的转变。随着我国经济的快速发展，交通基础设施建设有了重大提升，高铁的建设也取得了长足进步，改变了我国的发展格局，降低了运输成本，促进了城市间、区域间的要素流动，为制造业的转型升级提供了新契机。

本文首先在回顾相关经典理论的基础上，从促进生产性服务业集聚、推动要素转移以及提高技术创新能力三方面分析了高铁发展影响制造业转型升级的机理。其次，对高铁与制造业的发展历程及现状进行分析，并运用对比分析的方法研究了高铁城市与非高铁城市制造业发展的差异。接着，采用我国2003-2018年284个地级市的面板数据进行实证检验。第一，运用双重差分法进行基准回归，发现高铁的发展在总体上有利于制造业转型升级，影响系数为0.0051，且通过了5%水平下的统计性检验。第二，异质性分析。考虑到我国各地区自然条件、经济发展水平具有差异性，对三大区域分别进行回归，发现高铁对东部地区制造业转型升级具有显著促进作用，影响系数为0.0055，且通过了1%水平下的统计性检验；城市的地理位置会对制造业产生一定影响，因此，我们从城市是否属于“八纵八横”主干线来进行异质性分析，结果发现，高铁的发展对主干线及非主干线城市制造业的转型升级并无显著促进作用；城市的发展等级也会对制造业转型升级产生一定影响，因此，我们对一二三四五线城市分别进行回归，结果发现，高铁对三线城市制造业的转型升级具有显著促进作用。第三，稳健性检验。为考察基准模型估计结果是否具有一般性，我们采用PSM-DID检验、“反事实”检验和替换样本检验三种方法进行稳健性检验，结果再次证明了基准估计结果的准确性。最后，文章提出了高铁发展下制造业转型升级的四条对策建议。

Since the financial crisis, China’s manufacturing industry has faced dual pressures from the return of high-end manufacturing industries in developed countries and the rise of low-end manufacturing industries in developing countries. However, Most of China's manufacturing industries are still at the low end of the "smile curve", at the expense of consuming natural resources and destroying the environment, which is very detrimental to China's economic development.Therefore, the manufacturing industry urgently needs to find an effective path for transformation and upgrading to realize the transformation from large to strong.With the rapid development of China’s economy, the construction of transportation infrastructure has been greatly improved, and the construction of high-speed rail has also made great progress, which has changed China’s development pattern, reduced transportation costs, promoted the flow of factors between cities and regions , and provided new opportunities for the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry.

This article first analyzes the mechanism by which the development of high-speed rail affects the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry from three aspects: promoting the agglomeration of producer services, promoting the transfer of factors, and improving technological innovation capabilities on the basis of reviewing related classic theories. Secondly, it analyzes the development history and status quo of high-speed rail and manufacturing industry, and uses the method of comparative analysis to study the difference in manufacturing development between high-speed rail cities and non-high-speed rail cities. Next, the panel data of 284 prefecture-level cities in China from 2003 to 2018 are used for empirical testing. First, the benchmark regression was carried out through the double difference method, and it was found that the development of high-speed rail is generally conducive to the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry, with an impact coefficient of 0.0051, and passed Statistical test at the 5% level. Second, analysis of heterogeneity. Taking into account the differences in the natural conditions and economic development levels of various regions in China, the three major regions were regressed separately, and it was found that the high-speed rail has the most obvious promotion effect on the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry in the eastern region, with an impact coefficient of 0.0055 and passing Statistical test at the 1% level. The city’s geographic location will have a certain impact on the manufacturing industry. Therefore, we analyze the heterogeneity of the city from whether the city belongs to the “eight vertical and eight horizontal” main lines. The results found that the development of high-speed rail does not significantly promote the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry in the main-line and non-main-line cities; the development level of the city will also have a certain impact on the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry. Therefore, we conducted regressions on Tier 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 cities, and found that high-speed rail has a significant role in promoting the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing in Tier 3 cities.Third, the robustness test. In order to examine whether the benchmark model estimation results are general, we use three methods: PSM-DID test, "counterfactual" test, and replacement sample test to test the robustness. The results once again prove the accuracy of the benchmark estimation results. Finally, the article puts forward four countermeasures and suggestions for the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry under the development of high-speed rail.