作者林京
姓名汉语拼音LinJing
学号2018000003125
培养单位兰州财经大学
电话18819641996
电子邮件hzlinjing@foxmail.com
入学年份2018-9
学位类别专业硕士
培养级别硕士研究生
一级学科名称应用统计
学科代码0252
第一导师姓名傅德印
第一导师姓名汉语拼音Fu Deyin
第一导师单位中国劳动关系学院
第一导师职称教授
题名我国商品出口贸易影响因素的地区差异研究
英文题名Research on Regional Differences of Influencing Factors of China's Commodity Export Trade
关键词“一带一路”倡议 出口贸易 地区差异 k-means聚类 弹性网络
外文关键词"One Belt One Road" initiative ; Export trade ; Regional differences ; K-means clustering ; Elastic-Network algorithm
摘要

随着全球一体化和国与国之间经济联系的日益紧密,我国顺应时代潮流,加强了对外开放的力度,并设立自由贸易区和提出了一带一路倡议,成为世界经济发展的新引擎、新动力。改革开放40年来,我国持续重视商品货物的出口贸易发展,不断加大力度发展对外贸易,使得出口贸易发展迅猛。因此,在越来越开放的世界经济中,出口贸易显得尤为重要。而商品贸易是最基本的贸易方式,一个国家或地区的商品出口贸易水平越高,净出口额越大,所反映的经济实力和国际影响力不可小觑。

本文首先对国内外关于商品出口贸易影响因素地区差异相关文献进行总结,指出了现有文献在研究方式和内容上的不同,并提出了本文在地区划分和研究方法上的创新性。其次,从理论方面阐述了商品出口贸易的各类影响因素机理,对地区差异形成的传导机制。然后利用图表的形式对我国总体和各地区的商品出口差异现状进行了展示,其中使用了k-means聚类方法,将31个省市划分为出口水平较弱、出口水平中等、出口水平较强和出口水平强的四类地区,使用出口份额、标准差和变异系数、锡尔指数、出口的区位熵指数、出口的基尼系数、商品出口优势指数从地区间和地区内对差异进行描述,反映出我国商品出口地区间差异仍然较大,占比不均衡,但是根据发展速度趋势来看,相对差异在逐渐缩小。在实证分析方面,本文运用理论认识中的商品出口影响因素作为变量,分别对四类地区进行弹性网络算法建模,并对模型进行了自相关检验、同方差检验、多重共线性检验、回归方程检验和回归系数检验等,检验均通过后得到了各地区对商品出口有显著影响的因素。结果可以较好的看出我国商品出口影响因素地区间的差异,它不仅体现在影响因素的组合不同,也体现在各因素对地区商品出口影响程度的大小不同。

最后对各地区不同影响因素的差异进行了总结与分析,提出了进一步扩大对外开放力度、吸引人才、优化资源利用等提升商品出口水平的政策建议。

英文摘要

With the globalization and the increasingly close economic ties between countries, my country has followed the trend of the times, strengthened its opening up, and established free trade zones and proposed the "One Belt One Road" initiative, which has become a new engine for world economic development and new momentum. Over the past 40 years of reform and opening up, my country has continued to attach importance to the development of export trade of commodities and goods, and has continuously increased its efforts to develop foreign trade, which has led to the rapid development of export trade. Therefore, in an increasingly open world economy, export trade is particularly important. Commodity trade is the most basic mode of trade. The higher the level of commodity export trade in a country or region, the greater the net export value, and the economic strength and international influence reflected cannot be underestimated.

This article first summarizes the domestic and foreign related literature on the regional differences in the factors affecting commodity export trade, points out the differences in the research methods and content of the existing literature, and proposes the innovation of this article in terms of regional division and research methods. Secondly, it expounds the mechanism of various influencing factors of commodity export trade and the transmission mechanism of the formation of regional differences from the theoretical aspect. Then use the form of a chart to show the status of my country's overall and regional differences in commodity exports. The k-means clustering method is used to classify 31 provinces and cities into weaker export levels, medium export levels, and stronger export levels. And the four types of regions with strong export levels, use export share, standard deviation and coefficient of variation, theil index, export location entropy index, export Gini coefficient, and commodity export advantage index to describe differences between and within regions to reflect The regional differences in my country’s merchandise exports are still large and their proportions are not balanced. However, according to the development speed trend, the relative differences are gradually shrinking. In terms of empirical analysis, this article uses the commodity export influencing factors in the theoretical understanding as variables to model the elastic network algorithm for the four types of regions respectively, and conducts the autocorrelation test, homovariance test, multicollinearity test, and regression equation of the model. After passing the test and regression coefficient test, the factors that have a significant impact on commodity exports in each region are obtained after the tests are passed. The model can better see the regional differences in the factors affecting my country's merchandise exports. It is not only reflected in the different combinations of influencing factors, but also in the degree of influence of each factor on regional merchandise exports.

Finally, it summarizes and analyzes the differences of different influencing factors in various regions, and puts forward policy recommendations to further expand the opening up, attract talents, and optimize the utilization of resources to improve the level of commodity exports.

学位类型硕士
答辩日期2021-05-15
学位授予地点甘肃省兰州市
语种中文
论文总页数84
参考文献总数48
馆藏号0003676
保密级别公开
中图分类号C8/259
文献类型学位论文
条目标识符http://ir.lzufe.edu.cn/handle/39EH0E1M/29457
专题统计与数据科学学院
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
林京. 我国商品出口贸易影响因素的地区差异研究[D]. 甘肃省兰州市. 兰州财经大学,2021.
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