统计与数据科学学院知识库

全面建成小康社会既是我国经济社会发展的阶段性目标，也是人民群众期盼 美好生活的寄托。“十二五”期间，我国全面建成小康社会建设工作表现良好， “十三五”以来，全面建成小康社会的建设工作一直在持续。同一时期，遵循党 中央的指示，甘肃在全省范围内积极建设着全面小康社会，这一区域一直是我国 全面建成小康社会建设工作的难点地区，到目前为止，全省全面建成小康社会建 设工作进展顺利，最重要的成就是农村贫困人口持续脱贫，2018 年甘肃省全年 减贫 77.6 万人，现行标准下贫困发生率下降到 5.6%。此时，选择甘肃省全面建 成小康社会进程来做实证研究，是对甘肃省“十三五”规划实施效果的中期检测， 对全省最终顺利实现全面建成小康社会有积极意义。 本文的实证研究分别在《全国全面建成小康社会统计监测指标体系（修订 稿）》和《甘肃省全面建成小康社会统计监测指标体系（修订稿）》下进行，这样 做的目的：一是依甘肃实际，分析清楚甘肃省全面建成小康社会建设工作究竟进 展如何，二是对照全国统一标准，找出甘肃省全面建成小康社会实现水平与全国 标准之间的差距。经测算，在甘肃体系下，2017 年甘肃省全面建成小康社会总 体实现程度为 86.72%，比 2010 年提升了 24.49%，比 2015 年提升了 4.43%；但 在全国体系下，2017 年甘肃省全面建成小康社会总体实现程度只有 81.23%，比 2010 年提升了 24.55%，比 2015 年提升了 5.65%。通过对比发现，虽然在两套体 系下全年小康实现程度存在差距，但增长幅度却大致相当。在甘肃体系下，障碍 度诊断的结果是人民生活对全面建成小康社会的阻碍作用最大，经济发展次之； 但在全国体系下，经济发展对全面建成小康社会的阻碍作用最大，人民生活次之。 在甘肃体系下，使用变权重组合预测模型对 2020 年甘肃省全面建成小康社会预 期的实现水平做了预测，预测结果为 96.51%，未达到 100%，但从未来不确定性 角度来看，要实现全面建成小康社会的可能性非常大；由于全国统一标准对甘肃 省全面建成小康社会要求更高，在全国体系下，全面小康总体实现水平预测结果 为 93.92%。最后，从确保如期实现甘肃省全面建成小康社会的目的出发，提出 了五点对策建议。

Building a moderately prosperous society in all respects is not only a phased goal of China's economic and social development, but also the people's hope for a better life. During the 12th five-year plan period, China performed well in building a moderately prosperous society in all respects. Since the 13th five-year plan period, China has been building a moderately prosperous society in all respects. The same period, according to the CPC central committee's instructions, and gansu province in the province within the scope of construction of well-off society in an all-round way, and has been to build a well-off society in an all-round construction difficulties of the work area, so far, the province to build a well-off society in an all-round construction work goes well, the most important achievements are rural poverty population out of poverty, poverty reduction throughout the year 776000 in gansu province in 2018, under the current standards poverty rate dropped to 5.6%. At this time, the selection of gansu province to complete the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects to do empirical research, is the implementation of the 13th five-year plan of gansu province effect of the mid-term test, for the province to finally achieve the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects is of positive significance. In this paper, empirical research in the country to build a well-off society in an all-round way statistical monitoring indicators system (revised), and index system of gansu province to build a well-off society in an all-round way statistical monitoring (revised), under the aim: one is in accordance with the actual, gansu province, analysis clear exactly how to build a well-off society in an all-round way construction in gansu province, the second is to control the national unified standard, find out the gansu province to build a well-off society in an all-round way to realize the level and the gap between the national standard. It is estimated that under the gansu system, the overall realization degree of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects in gansu province in 2017 was 86.72%, 24.49% higher than that in 2010 and 4.43% higher than that in 2015. However, under the national system, the overall realization degree of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects in gansu province in 2017 was only 81.23%, 24.55% higher than that in 2010 and 5.65% higher than that in 2015. Through the comparison, although there is a gap between the two systems in the degree of annual well-off, but the growth rate is about the same. Under the gansu system, the result of obstacle degree diagnosis is that people's life has the biggest hindrance to the building of a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way, followed by economic development. However, under the national system, economic development is the biggest hindrance to the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects, followed by people's livelihood. Under the gansu system, the variable weight combination prediction model was used to predict the expected realization level of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects in gansu province in 2020. The predicted result was 96.51%, which did not reach 100%. However, from the perspective of future uncertainty, it is very possible to build a moderately prosperous society in all respects. Due to the higher requirement of the national unified standard for gansu province to complete the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects, under the national system, the predicted result of the overall realization level of the moderately prosperous society in all respects is 93.92%. Finally, five countermeasures and Suggestions are put forward to ensure the completion of building a moderately prosperous society in gansu province as scheduled.