农村人口老龄化对农业高质量发展的影响效应

doi:10.13320/j.cnki.jauhe.2025.0007

	农村人口老龄化对农业高质量发展的影响效应
其他题名	The Impact of Rural Population Aging on the High-Quality Development of Agriculture
	张永凯; 许帆
	2025-01-27
发表期刊	河北农业大学学报（社会科学版）
卷号	27 期号:1 页码:63-73
摘要	基于2012-2022年甘肃省14个市州面板数据,采用熵值法,测算甘肃省农业高质量发展水平,然后通过动态面板和门槛效应模型,实证分析农村人口老龄化对农业高质量发展的影响效应.研究结果表明:农村人口老龄化总体上对农业高质量发展具有显著促进作用;从2012-2022年甘肃省各市州农业高质量发展水平时空演变情况来看,短期内农村人口老龄化抑制农业高质量发展水平的提高,长期内农村人口老龄化能够促进农业高质量发展水平的提高;分维度的异质性分析发现,农村人口老龄化在一定程度上通过改善农业发展水平、资源条件、经济条件和技术条件,提升农业的高质量发展水平;通过抑制环境条件改善,阻碍农业高质量发展的进一步提升;门槛效应检验结果显示,随着农业发展水平提高,农村人口老龄化对农业高质量发展的促进效应会得到进一步增强.
其他摘要	Based on panel data from 14 cities and prefectures in Gansu Province between 2012 and 2022,this study employs the entropy method to measure the level of high-quality agricultural development in Gansu.Subsequently,through dynamic panel analysis and threshold effect models,it empirically exam-ines the impact of rural population aging on high-quality agricultural development.The research findings indicate that rural population aging generally has a significant promoting effect on high-quality agricul-tural development.Analyzing the spatiotemporal evolution of high-quality agricultural development levels across various cities and prefectures in Gansu from 2012 to 2022 reveals that,in the short term,rural pop-ulation aging suppresses improvements in high-quality agricultural development levels;however,over the long term,it can facilitate enhancements in these levels.A heterogeneity analysis conducted across different dimensions shows that rural population aging enhances high-quality agricultural development by improving agriculture's developmental standards as well as resource conditions,economic conditions,and technological conditions.Conversely,it also hinders further advancements by restricting environmental condition improvements.The results of threshold effect testing demonstrate that as agricultural develop-ment levels increase,the promoting effect of rural population aging on high-quality agricultural develop-ment becomes more pronounced.
关键词	农村人口老龄化农业高质量发展门槛效应模型
DOI	10.13320/j.cnki.jauhe.2025.0007
URL	查看原文
收录类别	AMI
ISSN	2096-6989
语种	中文
原始文献类型	Periodical
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.lzufe.edu.cn/handle/39EH0E1M/39108
专题	农林经济管理学院
作者单位	兰州财经大学农林经济管理学院,甘肃兰州 730020
第一作者单位	农林经济管理学院
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	张永凯,许帆. 农村人口老龄化对农业高质量发展的影响效应[J]. 河北农业大学学报（社会科学版）,2025,27(1):63-73.
APA	张永凯,&许帆.(2025).农村人口老龄化对农业高质量发展的影响效应.河北农业大学学报（社会科学版）,27(1),63-73.
MLA	张永凯,et al."农村人口老龄化对农业高质量发展的影响效应".河北农业大学学报（社会科学版） 27.1(2025):63-73.