人口老龄化对发展新质生产力的影响研究

doi:10.15884/j.cnki.issn.1007-0672.2025.02.009

LZUFE-KMS > 经济学院

	人口老龄化对发展新质生产力的影响研究
其他题名	Study on the Impact of Population Aging on the Development of New-quality Productive Forces
	马丽1 ; 乔国娇1 ; 才让加 2
	2025-02-28
发表期刊	西北人口
卷号	46 期号:2 页码:113-126
摘要	中国人口负增长时代下,人口增长模式和结构的转变,对新质生产力发展提出了巨大挑战.探究如何在适应人口结构新变化的基础上加快发展新质生产力,有效遏制人口结构转变对新质生产力产生的不利影响,既关系到新质生产力的培育,更关系到经济高质量增长目标的顺利实现.清晰认识人口老龄化与新质生产力的关系,为提前干预人口老龄化的政策出台而做好准备.文章基于2012～2022年省际面板数据,在测算省级新质生产力发展水平的基础上,考察了人口老龄化对新质生产力的影响及作用机制.研究发现:第一,人口老龄化对新质生产力的发展产生了负向影响,该结论经过一系列稳健性检验后依然成立.第二,人力资本和劳动生产率是人口老龄化对新质生产力发挥正向影响的重要传导机制.第三,人口老龄化对新质生产力的抑制作用在市场化指数较高的地区更加显著;短期内,二孩政策的实施并未有效缓解人口老龄化对新质生产力的负向影响.第四,人口老龄化对新质生产力的影响存在技术进步门槛,跨过门槛值后,技术进步将有效激活人口老龄化对新质生产力的积极作用.为此,应采取优化人力资本质量、推动区域协调发展和加强福利保障等措施,以助推新质生产力的发展.
其他摘要	In the context of China's negative population growth,the transformation of demographic patterns and struc-tures presents significant challenges to the development of new-quality productive forces.Addressing these challenges requires exploring strategies to accelerate the development of new-quality productive forces while adapting to demo-graphic changes.Effectively mitigating the adverse impacts of demographic shifts on new-quality productive forces is crucial,as it not only pertains to the cultivation of new-quality productive forces but also directly affects the achieve-ment of high-quality economic growth objectives.A clear understanding of the relationship between population aging and new-quality productive forces is essential for formulating proactive policy interventions.Based on inter-provincial panel data from 2012 to 2022,this study examines the impact of population aging on new-quality productive forces and its underlying mechanisms,after measuring the development level of new-quality productive forces at the provincial level.The findings reveal several key insights:First,population aging exerts a negative impact on the development of new-quality productive forces,a conclusion that remains robust after a series of rigorous tests.Second,human capital and labor productivity serve as crucial transmission mechanisms through which population aging positively influences new-quality productive forces.Third,the inhibitory effect of population aging on new-quality productive forces is more pronounced in regions with higher marketization indices;in the short term,the implementation of the two-child policy has not effectively alleviated the negative impact of population aging on new-quality productive forces.Fourth,the im-pact of population aging on new-quality productive forces exhibits a technological progress threshold effect,beyond this threshold,technological progress can effectively activate the positive role of population aging in developing new-quali-ty productive forces.In light of these findings,policy interventions should focus on enhancing human capital quality,improving regional coordination and development,and strengthening welfare systems to foster the development of new-quality productive forces.
关键词	人口老龄化人力资本劳动生产率技术进步新质生产力
DOI	10.15884/j.cnki.issn.1007-0672.2025.02.009
URL	查看原文
收录类别	北大核心 ; AMI
ISSN	1007-0672
语种	中文
原始文献类型	Periodical
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.lzufe.edu.cn/handle/39EH0E1M/39048
专题	经济学院
作者单位	1.兰州财经大学经济学院,兰州 730020; 2.西北民族大学经济学院,兰州 730070
第一作者单位	经济学院
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	马丽,乔国娇,才让加. 人口老龄化对发展新质生产力的影响研究[J]. 西北人口,2025,46(2):113-126.
APA	马丽,乔国娇,&才让加.(2025).人口老龄化对发展新质生产力的影响研究.西北人口,46(2),113-126.
MLA	马丽,et al."人口老龄化对发展新质生产力的影响研究".西北人口 46.2(2025):113-126.