经济增长目标设置理念的转变与制造业结构优化

doi:10.12012/CJoE2024-0017

	经济增长目标设置理念的转变与制造业结构优化
其他题名	The Transformation of the Concept of Economic Growth Target Setting and the Optimization of the Manufacturing Industry Structure
	刘明 1,2,3; 杨国镯2
	2024
发表期刊	计量经济学报
卷号	4 期号:4 页码:1172-1196
摘要	设置经济增长目标是地方政府宏观经济管理的重要手段.本文着重考察经济增长目标设置理念转变对制造业结构优化的影响效果,通过逻辑推理和文献归纳提出地区经济增长目标对制造业结构优化的影响机制假说,并基于中国2001——2020年31个省区(不包括香港、澳门特别行政区和中国台湾省)的省级面板数据进行实证检验.调节效应分析显示,地区经济增长目标设置理念转变后地区经济增长目标对制造业结构合理化具有显著促进作用,施加环境约束能有效弱化地区经济增长目标对制造业结构高度化的抑制作用;地区经济增长目标加码程度减弱有助于弱化地区经济增长目标对制造业结构优化的抑制作用;中介机制检验结果表明,政府绩效考核下地区经济增长目标能通过投资结构扭曲效应、技术创新挤占效应以及要素市场发育阻滞效应对制造业结构高度化和合理化产生抑制作用,这为减少经济增长目标设置的负向影响以及促进制造业优化发展提供了可行路径.
其他摘要	Setting economic growth targets is an important means of macroeconomic management for local governments.This paper focuses on the impact of the change of economic growth target setting concept on the optimization of manufacturing in-dustry structure,puts forward the hypothesis of the influence mechanism of regional economic growth target on manufacturing industry structure optimization through logical reasoning and literature induction,and conducts an empirical test based on the provincial panel data of 31 provinces and autonomous regions in China from 2001 to 2020(not including Hong Kong,Macau,and Taiwan).The analysis of moderating effect shows that the regional economic growth target has a significant promoting effect on the rationalization of the manufacturing industry structure after the change of the concept of regional economic growth target setting,and the imposition of en-vironmental constraints can effectively weaken the inhibitory effect of the regional economic growth target on the upgrading of the manufacturing industry structure.The weakening of the increase in the regional economic growth target will help weaken the inhibiting effect of the regional economic growth target on the optimization of the manufacturing industry structure.The results of the intermediary mechanism test show that the regional economic growth target under the government performance appraisal can inhibit the height and rationalization of the manufacturing industry structure through the distortion effect of investment structure,the crowding effect of technological innovation and the stunting effect of factor market development,which provides a feasible path for reducing the negative impact of economic growth target setting and promoting the optimal development of the manufacturing industry.
关键词	地区经济增长目标制造业结构高度化制造业结构合理化投资结构技术创新要素市场发育
DOI	10.12012/CJoE2024-0017
URL	查看原文
收录类别	CSCD ; 中国科技核心期刊 ; AMI
ISSN	2096-9732
语种	中文
原始文献类型	学术期刊
中图分类号	F12
CN号	10-1738/F
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.lzufe.edu.cn/handle/39EH0E1M/38145
专题	统计与数据科学学院
作者单位	1.兰州财经大学“一带一路”经济研究院,兰州730020; 2.兰州财经大学统计与数据科学学院,兰州730020; 3.甘肃省数字经济与社会计算科学重点实验室,兰州730020
第一作者单位	兰州财经大学; 统计与数据科学学院
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	刘明,杨国镯. 经济增长目标设置理念的转变与制造业结构优化[J]. 计量经济学报,2024,4(4):1172-1196.
APA	刘明,&杨国镯.(2024).经济增长目标设置理念的转变与制造业结构优化.计量经济学报,4(4),1172-1196.
MLA	刘明,et al."经济增长目标设置理念的转变与制造业结构优化".计量经济学报 4.4(2024):1172-1196.