房地产企业杠杆率、房价与系统性金融风险

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1003-3580.2024.08.012

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	房地产企业杠杆率、房价与系统性金融风险
其他题名	Leverage Ratio of Real Estate Enterprises,Housing Price and Systemic Financial Risk
	王霞1 ; 田圆园2
	2024-08-15
发表期刊	经济论坛
期号	08 页码:125-139
摘要	为厘清房地产杠杆率与系统性金融风险的关系，促进房地产市场的健康发展，防范化解金融风险。文章基于2005—2021年我国30个省（区、市）的面板数据，采用双向固定效应模型及空间杜宾模型实证检验了房地产企业杠杆率对系统性金融风险的影响，发现房地产企业杠杆率与系统性金融风险之间呈现先促进后抑制的“U”型关系，拐点在77.35%左右；房价水平对房地产企业杠杆率与系统性金融风险的“U”型关系具有显著的负向调节作用，房价的上涨能削弱房企杠杆率对系统性金融风险的影响程度；空间视角分析显示，其他省份房地产企业杠杆率上升能够发挥“警示作用”进而抑制本省的系统性金融风险。因此，监管部门应合理监管房企杠杆率水平，并结合房价调控政策灵活实施房企去杠杆率政策。
其他摘要	To clarify the relationship between the leverage ratio of real estate enterprises and systemic finan-cial risks is conducive to the healthy development of the real estate market and the prevention and reduction of fi-nancial risks.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces(municipalities and autonomous regions)from 2005 to 2021,this paper empirically tests the influence of housing-enterprise leverage ratio on systemic financial risk by using the bidirectional fixed-effect model and spatial Dubin model.It is found that there is a"U"-shaped relationship of promotion first and then inhibition between the leverage ratio of real estate enterprises and systemic financial risk,and the inflection point is about 77.35％.The housing price level has a significant negative regulating effect on the"U"-shaped relationship,and the rise of housing price can inhibit the influence of the leverage ratio of real estate enterprises on the systemic financial risk.The spatial perspective analysis shows that the rising leverage ratio of real estate enterprises in other provinces can play a"warning role"and thus restrain systemic financial risks in their own provinces.Therefore,the regulatory authorities should rationally supervise the leverage ratio of real es-tate enterprises,and flexibly implement the deleveraging-ratio policy of real estate enterprises in combination with the housing price regulation policies.
关键词	房地产企业杠杆率房价系统性金融风险 “U”型关系空间溢出
DOI	10.3969/j.issn.1003-3580.2024.08.012
URL	查看原文
收录类别	AMI
ISSN	1003-3580
语种	中文
原始文献类型	学术期刊
中图分类号	F299.233.42;F832
CN号	13-1022/F
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.lzufe.edu.cn/handle/39EH0E1M/37689
专题	金融学院
作者单位	1.兰州财经大学金融学院; 2.中信银行股份有限公司广州花都支行
第一作者单位	金融学院
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	王霞,田圆园. 房地产企业杠杆率、房价与系统性金融风险[J]. 经济论坛,2024(08):125-139.
APA	王霞,&田圆园.(2024).房地产企业杠杆率、房价与系统性金融风险.经济论坛(08),125-139.
MLA	王霞,et al."房地产企业杠杆率、房价与系统性金融风险".经济论坛 .08(2024):125-139.