金融学院知识库

据国家统计局数据显示，到2023年末，我国人口自然增长率为-1.48%，60岁以上的老年人口占比高达21.1%，显示出我国人口生育率低、老龄人口比例上升，我国人口老龄化问题严重，产生的诸多养老难题亟待解决。作为我国养老保障的第三支柱，商业养老保险在养老需求方面发挥着重要作用。我国作为人情社会，社会互动产生的作用需求不可小觑，因此，希望通过社会互动视角拓宽对商业养老保险需求的研究。

本文采用中国综合社会调查数据(CGSS)2018年和2021年的混合截面数据，通过实证研究社会互动对居民参与商业养老保险的影响。首先利用主成因子分析法对社会互动这一解释变量进行处理，再使用Probit模型和OLS模型进行基准回归，并通过工具变量法规避内生性问题，使用了变更自变量定义、更换模型等方式确保结果的稳健性，再通过逐步回归和Bootstrap法对中介机理做了研究，最后对结果进行异质性分析。

本文的主要结论有：（1）叠加了内生互动和情景互动的综合型社会互动能显著促进居民对商业养老保险参与，即社会互动频率高的居民，社会互动的正向效应对他们影响更强，更容易促进其商业养老保险的参与。（2）机理分析方面，社会互动能调节居民的风险态度、提升幸福感，进而影响对商业养老保险的需求。(3)异质性方面，分析得出社会互动对有不同人口和地域特征的居民的影响作用不同。基于上述研究结论，文章从政府层面、公司层面、个人层面等层面提出了相应对策建议，以期推动我国商业养老保险的良性和快速发展。

According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, by the end of 2023, China's natural population growth rate will be-1.48%, and the elderly population over 60 years old accounts for as high as 21.1%, indicating that the fertility rate of China's population is low and the proportion of the elderly population is rising. The problem of aging of China's population is serious, and many old-age care problems need to be solved urgently. As the third pillar of the pension security in China, the commercial endowment insurance plays an important role in the pension demand. As a human society in China, the role and demand of social interaction can not be underestimated. Therefore, we hope to broaden the research on the demand of commercial endowment insurance through the perspective of social interaction.

This paper uses mixed cross-section data from China Comprehensive Social Survey Data (CGSS) in 2018 and 2021 to empirically study the impact of social interaction on residents' participation in commercial endowment insurance. First using the main factor analysis of social interaction this explanatory variables, using the Probit model and OLS model for benchmark regression, and through the tool variable regulations avoid endogenous problem, using the independent variable definition, change the model to ensure the robustness of the results, and then through the gradual regression and Bootstrap method studied the mediation mechanism, finally analyzed the heterogeneity of the results.

The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) the comprehensive social interaction with endogenous interaction and situational interaction can significantly promote residents' participation in commercial endowment insurance, that is, for residents with high frequency of social interaction, the positive effect of social interaction has a stronger influence on them, and it is more likely to promote their participation in commercial endowment insurance.(2) In terms of mechanism analysis, social interaction can regulate residents' risk attitude, improve their happiness, and then affect the demand for commercial endowment insurance.(3) In terms of heterogeneity, the analysis concluded that social interaction has different effects on residents with different demographic and regional characteristics. Based on the above research conclusions, the paper puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions from the government level, company level and individual level, in order to promote the benign and rapid development of China's commercial endowment insurance.