统计与数据科学学院知识库

近年来，中国作为全球人口最多的国家，经济实力不断崛起，如何充分挖掘人口红利，将数量众多的人口资源转化为人力资本，成为现阶段经济转型的迫切问题。同时，随着户籍制度的不断改革，使得人力资本在空间区域上的流动成为可能，成为推动区域经济发展的重要“引擎”。因此，深入研究区域人力资本及其对经济增长的影响因素，对我国区域人力资本配置及经济增长具有重要的理论和现实意义。

本文以人力资本理论为依据，借鉴国内外人力资本概念、人力资本及其流动的测度方法、人力资本对经济增长的影响的相关研究成果，采用定性和定量相结合的方法，对我国区域人力资本及其对经济增长的影响因素进行了系统性研究。一是，构建教育质量水平综合评价体系，通过综合得分对平均受教育年限进行加权调节；二是，依托明瑟方程估计得到教育回报率，进而测算人力资本；三是，采用引力模型对人力资本流动进行测算；四是，基于八大综合经济区对人力资本及其流动进行特征分析；五是，依据C-D生产函数理论推导模型，运用静态面板回归模型对中国省际和八大综合经济区进行实证分析。

通过研究发现：（1）中国人力资本存量整体分布不均，不同地区之间的人力资本差距仍在不断加剧，三大沿海区域的人力资本存量明显高于其它五大区域，南部沿海区域内部差异最大；（2）人力资本主要由西北地区流向三大沿海区域，东部沿海的流入强度最高，西北地区的流入强度最低；（3）物质资本和人力资本仍是促进经济增长的关键因素，西北地区人力资本的经济效应最大，黄河中游地区的经济效应最小，人力资本流入对沿海区域的经济效应明显小于其余五大区域，人力资本流出对东北地区的经济效应最大。

In recent years, as the world's most populous country, China's economic strength continues to rise, how to fully tap the demographic dividend, a large number of population resources into human capital, has become an urgent issue at the current stage of economic transformation. At the same time, with the continuous reform of the household registration system, it is possible for human capital to flow in space and become an important "engine" to promote regional economic development. Therefore, the in-depth study of regional human capital and its influencing factors on economic growth has important theoretical and practical significance for China's regional human capital allocation and economic growth.

Based on the theory of human capital, this thesis draws on the concept of human capital, the measurement method of human capital and its flow, and the relevant research results on the impact of human capital on economic growth at home and abroad, and adopts the method of combining qualitative and quantitative methods to conduct a systematic study on regional human capital and its influencing factors on economic growth in China. The first is to build a comprehensive evaluation system of education quality level, weighted adjustment of the average years of education through comprehensive scores. Second, the education rate of return is estimated based on Mincer's equation, and then the human capital is estimated. Thirdly, the gravity model is used to measure the human capital flow. Fourth, it analyzes the characteristics of human capital and its flow based on eight comprehensive economic zones. Fifth, based on the theory of C-D production function, the static panel regression model is used to make an empirical analysis of China's provincial and eight comprehensive economic zones.

The results show that: (1) the overall distribution of China's human capital stock is uneven, and the human capital gap between different regions is still intensifying. The human capital stock of the three major coastal regions is significantly higher than that of the other five regions, and the difference within the southern coastal region is the largest; (2) Human capital flows mainly from the northwest to the three major coastal regions, with the highest inflow intensity in the eastern coastal region and the lowest inflow intensity in the northwest region; (3) Physical capital and human capital are still the key factors to promote economic growth. The economic effect of human capital inflow on the coastal region is obviously smaller than that of the other five regions, and the economic effect of human capital outflow on the northeast region is the largest.