统计与数据科学学院知识库

随着退休人员数量的增加和工作人口的减少，我国养老金支付压力将进一步加剧，对基本养老保险的可持续性构成了挑战，但基本养老保险作为我国三支柱养老保险体系中最重要的第一支柱，其运行状况关乎到人民的幸福生活和国家的安定，基本养老保险的运行效率及影响因素依旧是当今时代的研究重点。文章查阅相关文献，明确了我国基本养老保险的定义，梳理了其发展过程，利用数据包络分析法对中国基本养老保险的运行效率进行了横向与纵向评估比较。同时，基于测算出的效率值研究分析了影响中国基本养老保险运行效率的因素。最后，文章引入门槛回归模型探讨不同的养老金替代率对我国基本养老保险运行效率的影响，引入空间效应模型分析相关影响因素的作用。

结果表明：第一，在剔除环境因素的影响后，中国的基本养老保险整体运行效率较高，这在一定程度上表明我国近几年基本养老保险发展较为优越，能够保障居民退休后的较高生活质量，但还未达到有效状态，仍存在着投入不足与资源利用效率低、地区间发展不平衡等问题，需要技术进步来进行推动。第二，人均可支配收入、基金可持续能力、社会保障负担、养老金替代率、经济发展水平、城镇化水平和人口老龄化程度等因素都对我国基本养老保险的运行效率具有影响。第三，尤其是人均可支配收入和基金可持续能力的提高，可以显著提升基本养老保险的运行效率，促进基本养老保险可持续发展。

最后，文章提出一些政策建议，以提高中国基本养老保险的运行效率。政府要将工作重点放在平衡区域间的差异、提高资源利用效率等方面上。加大对基本养老保险制度的宣传和推广力度，提高参保率和缴费率。通过优化基金投资运营方式，提高投资收益率，增加基金的收入来源。加强对基金的监管和管理，确保基金的使用透明和规范。

With the increase of the number of retirees and the decrease of the working population, the pressure of pension payment in China will be further intensified, posing a challenge to the sustainability of the basic pension insurance. However, as the most important first pillar of the three-pillar pension insurance system in China, the operation of the basic pension insurance is related to the happy life of the people and the stability of the country. The operation efficiency of basic endowment insurance and its influencing factors are still the research focus of the present era. This paper refers to relevant literature, clarifies the definition of China's basic endowment insurance, sorts out its development process, and evaluates and compares the operation efficiency of China's basic endowment insurance horizontally and vertically by using data enveloping analysis method. At the same time, based on the calculated efficiency value, the factors affecting the operation efficiency of China's basic pension insurance are analyzed. Finally, this paper introduces the threshold regression model to explore the impact of different pension replacement rates on the operational efficiency of China's basic pension insurance, and introduces the spatial effect model to analyze the role of relevant influencing factors.

The results show that: First, after excluding the impact of environmental factors, the overall operating efficiency of China's basic pension insurance is relatively high, which shows to a certain extent that the development of basic pension insurance in China has been superior in recent years, which can ensure a high quality of life after retirement of residents, but it has not yet reached the effective state. There are still problems such as insufficient investment, low resource utilization efficiency, and unbalanced development between regions. Technological advances are needed to propel it. Second, such factors as per capita disposable income, sustainable ability of fund, burden of social security, pension replacement rate, level of economic development, level of urbanization and degree of population aging all have an effect on the operating efficiency of basic pension insurance in our country. Third, the improvement of per capita disposable income and fund sustainability, in particular, can significantly improve the operational efficiency of basic pension insurance and promote the sustainable development of basic pension insurance.

Finally, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions to improve the operation efficiency of China's basic endowment insurance. The government should focus on balancing the differences between regions and improving the efficiency of resource utilization. The publicity and promotion of the basic old-age insurance system will be intensified, and the participation rate and contribution rate will be raised. By optimizing the investment and operation mode of the fund, the investment return rate is increased, and the income source of the fund is increased. Strengthen the supervision and management of the fund to ensure that the use of the fund is transparent and standardized.