国际经济与贸易学院知识库

  农产品贸易在中日双边贸易中占据重要地位，日本是中国最大的农产品出口国，中国农产品在日本市场上具有较强竞争力。因此，为保护本国农业产业，日本对中国采取了高关税、严格的进口检验和检疫制度、提供国内农业补贴等政策措施，限制了中国农产品的出口。签订RCEP标志着中日之间首次确立了自由贸易关系，将在广泛领域内实施关税减免。特别是对于中国出口到日本的农产品，零关税的范围最终将覆盖57.8%。另一方面，关税减让使具有比较优势的国家农产品更容易进入日本市场，外部竞争的加剧可能压缩中国农产品在日本的市场份额与利润空间，给中国农产品出口带来负面冲击。因此，研究RCEP协议下关税减让对中国农产品出口日本的具体影响，对于精准制定促进策略、推动中国农产品贸易持续繁荣至关重要。
  本文基于比较优势理论与关税同盟理论，构建了评估RCEP关税减让对成员国带来的贸易效应的理论框架。再从规模与结构两个维度分析了中国对日本农产品出口现状，运用MS、TC及TCI指数综合评估了中国农产品在日本市场的竞争力和互补性。进一步地，对RCEP协议中与农产品相关的关税承诺表、规则进行梳理与解读，初步了解该协议对中日农产品贸易的潜在影响。在实证部分，本文根据RCEP关税承诺表中各国农产品关税的减让情况，运用GTAP模型分别设置了短、中、长期三种不同情景进行模拟分析，以探究中国农产品在关税减让背景下出口日本所产生的贸易效应。
  实证研究显示，RCEP关税减让对中国农产品出口产生了显著的贸易创造与贸易转移效应，对日本的贸易创造效应尤为突出。在贸易结构方面，关税减让促进了中国大部分农产品出口的增长，但乳制品出口因澳大利亚和新西兰的竞争而下滑。短期内部分产品对日出口受冲击，中期逐步恢复，长期内谷物、乳制品和糖类产品竞争力显著增强，而油料油脂增长受限。两国国内生产总值和福利水平均有所提高，日本提高更显著。基于此，本文提出中国应加强对弱势农产品扶持力度、提升农产品的科技创新能力、优化农产品出口结构等对策，为中日农业贸易深化与拓展提供有力支持。 

  Agricultural product trade plays an important role in bilateral trade between China and Japan. Japan is China's largest exporter of agricultural products, and Chinese agricultural products have strong competitiveness in the Japanese market. Therefore, in order to protect its agricultural industry, Japan has implemented policies and measures such as high tariffs, strict import inspection and quarantine systems, and providing domestic agricultural subsidies to China, which have restricted the export of Chinese agricultural products. The signing of RCEP marks the first establishment of free trade relations between China and Japan, and tariff reductions will be implemented in a wide range of areas. Especially for agricultural products exported from China to Japan, the zero tariff range will ultimately cover 57.8%. On the other hand, tariff reductions make it easier for agricultural products from countries with comparative advantages to enter the Japanese market. The intensification of external competition may compress the market share and profit space of Chinese agricultural products in Japan, bringing negative impacts to China's agricultural product exports. Therefore, studying the specific impact of tariff reductions under the RCEP agreement on China's agricultural exports to Japan is crucial for accurately formulating promotion strategies and promoting the sustained prosperity of China's agricultural trade.
  This article constructs a theoretical framework for evaluating the trade effects of RCEP tariff reductions on member countries based on comparative advantage theory and tariff union theory. We further analyzed the current situation of China's agricultural product exports to Japan from the dimensions of scale and structure, and comprehensively evaluated the competitiveness and complementarity of Chinese agricultural products in the Japanese market using MS, TC, and TCI indices. Furthermore, a review and interpretation of the tariff commitment table and rules related to agricultural products in the RCEP agreement will be conducted to comprehensively reveal the potential impact of the agreement on agricultural trade between China and Japan. In the empirical part, this article uses the GTAP model to simulate and analyze the trade effects of Chinese agricultural products exported to Japan under the background of tariff reduction, based on the tariff reduction situation of agricultural products in various countries in the RCEP tariff commitment table. Three different scenarios, namely short, medium, and long term, are set up for simulation analysis.
  Empirical research shows that RCEP tariff reductions have had a significant trade creation and transfer effect on China's agricultural exports, with a particularly prominent trade creation effect on Japan. In terms of trade structure, tariff reductions have promoted the growth of most of China's agricultural exports, but dairy exports have declined due to competition from Australia and New Zealand. In the short term, some products will be affected by exports to Japan, and in the medium term, they will gradually recover. In the long term, the competitiveness of grains, dairy products, and sugar products will significantly increase, while the growth of oil and fats will be limited. The gross domestic product and welfare levels of both countries have improved, with Japan showing a more significant improvement. Based on this, this article proposes that China should strengthen its support for vulnerable agricultural products, enhance the technological innovation capabilities of agricultural products, optimize the export structure of agricultural products, and provide strong support for the deepening and expansion of Sino Japanese agricultural trade.