国际经济与贸易学院知识库

随着经济进入新常态，增长速度呈现出放缓趋势，而经济结构的优化与调整则上升为国家经济发展的重点工作。在此背景下，改进出口产品的技术含量及其结构，对于促进中国经济的结构性转型具有关键作用。同时，随着新一轮科技革命和产业变革的到来，智能化日益成为助力各国制造业高质量出口的新动能，为中国制造业出口转型升级提供了重要机遇。因此，研究智能化对中国制造业出口产品技术结构的影响，可以为各地制定符合当地实际的智能化发展策略、优化出口产品技术结构提供依据，对促进中国制造业高质量出口、推进新常态下经济结构改革具有重要意义。

本文借鉴刘军（2022）对智能化的测算方法构建智能化评价指标体系，选取出口复杂度指标作为出口产品技术结构的代理变量，同时基于《中国高技术产业统计年鉴》、各省统计年鉴、中国海关总署进出口数据库以及国研网数据库测算2010-2022年30个省（市）的智能化发展水平与制造业出口产品技术结构。现状分析结果显示：全国智能化发展整体呈上升态势，且东部地区智能化水平始终高于中西部以及东北地区，存在地区发展不平衡的现象；制造业出口产品技术结构虽然在某些时期发展速度放缓，部分省份还在个别年份出现了下降情况，但整体仍呈现上升趋势，且东部地区出口产品技术结构优于其他三个地区。基于此框架，本文运用固定效应模型进行了实证研究，旨在探讨智能化进程如何影响制造业出口产品技术结构。研究结果显示：（1）研究期间观察到，智能化显著地推动了制造业出口产品技术结构的优化。（2）智能化对制造业出口产品技术结构的影响表现出明显的地域差异性和时间变化特点：相较于西部和东北地区，智能化发展对中部和东部地区的促进作用更加显著；相较于政策出台后，政策出台前智能化的发展对制造业出口产品技术结构的促进作用更加显著。（3）智能化能够通过技术溢出和人力资本积累效应对制造业出口产品技术结构产生促进作用。

基于上述研究结论，本文提出如下对策建议：一是提高对智能化促进产品技术结构转型升级的重视程度，把握智能技术应用优势，稳步推进制造业智能化转型；二是结合不同地区的制造业发展优势，因地制宜、因势利导，有序推动地区、行业智能化发展；三是重视人才培养，推进人才更新换代，不断积累人力资本，优化劳动力技术结构，加速智能技术的吸收和转化；四是各地区协同发展，最大限度发挥智能技术的溢出效应与辐射带动作用。

With the economy entering the new normal, the growth rate has shown a slowing trend, and the optimization and adjustment of economic structure has become the focus of national economic development. In this context, improving the technical content and structure of export products plays a key role in promoting the structural transformation of China's economy. At the same time, with the arrival of a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, intelligence has increasingly become a new driving force for high-quality exports of manufacturing industries in various countries, providing important opportunities for the transformation and upgrading of China's manufacturing exports. Therefore, the study of the impact of intelligence on the technical structure of China's manufacturing export products can provide a basis for all localities to formulate intelligent development strategies in line with local realities and optimize the technical structure of export products, and is of great significance for promoting high-quality exports of China's manufacturing industry and promoting economic structural reform under the new normal.

This paper uses the intelligent measurement method proposed by Liu Jun (2022) for reference to build an intelligent evaluation index system, and selects the export complexity index as the proxy variable of the technical structure of export products. At the same time, based on the "China High-tech Industry Statistical Yearbook", provincial statistical yearbook, the import and export database of the General Administration of Customs of China and the National Research network database, the intelligent development level and the technical structure of manufacturing export products in 30 provinces (municipalities) from 2010 to 2022 are estimated. The results show that the development of intelligence is on the rise in the whole country, and the intelligence level in the eastern region is always higher than that in the central and western regions and the northeast region, and there is an unbalanced phenomenon of regional development. Although the technological structure of manufacturing export products has slowed down in some periods, and some provinces have also declined in individual years, the overall trend is still upward, and the technological structure of export products in the eastern region is better than that in the other three regions. Based on this framework, this paper uses the fixed-effect model to conduct an empirical study, aiming to explore how the intellectualization process affects the technical structure of manufacturing export products. The results show that: (1) During the study period, it was observed that intelligence significantly promoted the optimization of the technical structure of manufacturing export products. (2) The influence of intelligence on the technical structure of manufacturing export products shows obvious regional differences and time changes: compared with the western and northeastern regions, intelligent development has a more significant promoting effect on the central and eastern regions; Compared with before the introduction of the policy, the development of intelligence after the introduction of the policy has a more significant role in promoting the technical structure of manufacturing export products. (3) Intelligence can promote the technical structure of manufacturing export products through the effect of technology spillover and human capital accumulation.

Based on the above research conclusions, this paper puts forward the following countermeasures and suggestions: First, pay more attention to the transformation and upgrading of product technology structure promoted by intelligence, grasp the advantages of intelligent technology application, and steadily promote the intelligent transformation of manufacturing industry; The second is to combine the advantages of manufacturing development in different regions, adapt to local conditions and take advantage of the situation, and orderly promote the intelligent development of regions and industries; The third is to attach importance to personnel training, promote the replacement of talents, continuously accumulate human capital, optimize the technical structure of labor force, and accelerate the absorption and transformation of intelligent technology; The fourth is the coordinated development of all regions to maximize the spillover effect and radiation driving role of smart technology.