金融学院知识库

随着2019年《关于加快农业保险高质量发展的指导意见》的颁布实施，我国农业保险发展进入高质量发展阶段，在脱贫攻坚时期，农业保险的政策性和普惠性质使其在保障风险、农业促产、农民增收方面发挥着重要作用，在新发展阶段，农业保险如何更好地发挥其增收效应，提高农村居民收入，促进乡村振兴和农业农村现代化已经成为非常重要的研究课题。

文章围绕农业保险在新时代的农民增收效果，农业保险通过影响农业生产促进农民收入的提升路径以及农业保险发展对于地理空间上的本地和周边的影响三个主要研究点展开，采用2011-2020年全国30省市自治区面板数据，使用构建指数法构建农业保险发展指数，运用双向固定效应模型和多重中介模型，对农业保险发展对于农民的增收效应和农业保险发展通过农业现代化影响农民收入的增收路径进行了实证分析，在进行异质性分析时引入面板门限模型研究不同农业保险发展水平对农民收入的影响，在检验农业保险的空间溢出效应时引入空间杜宾模型和邻接矩阵进行了实证分析。结果表明：第一，农业保险的发展能够显著增加农民的收入水平，农业保险通过影响农业生产进而影响农民收入水平的中介路径存在。第二，农业保险的发展在中西部地区发挥的增收效应更加显著，在低收入地区更能发挥农业保险的增收效应。第三，农业保险发展水平存在双门限三阶段的层次，农业保险发展水平越高，农业保险的增收效应表现越好。第四，农业保险发展存在高发展水平地区聚集，低发展水平地区聚集的空间正自相关现象，农业保险发展能够影响周边地区农民收入水平，农业保险发展对全国平均农村居民收入的提升有显著正向的作用。

基于研究结果，文章提出建议：在农业保险的普及过程中应当注意发挥政府财政的补贴作用，发挥其促进农村农业现代化的功能，聚焦农业保险地方发展差距，推动农业保险和其他补贴政策向中西部地区倾斜。研究期望能够表明农业保险对于农民增收的积极意义，促进农业保险持续高质量发展，推动农村农业现代化和乡村振兴，进一步完善我国农业保险研究体系。

With the issuance and implementation of the Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the High Quality Development of Agricultural Insurance in 2019, the development of agricultural insurance in China has entered a stage of high-quality development. During the period of poverty alleviation, the policy and inclusive nature of agricultural insurance make it play an important role in ensuring risks, promoting agricultural production, and increasing farmers' income. In the new stage of development, how agricultural insurance can better play its income increasing effect, increase rural residents' income, promote rural revitalization, and modernization of agriculture and rural areas has become a very important research topic.

The article focuses on three main research points: the effect of agricultural insurance on increasing farmers' income in the new era, the path of promoting farmers' income through agricultural production through agricultural insurance, and the impact of agricultural insurance development on local and surrounding geographic space. Using panel data from 30 provinces, cities, and autonomous regions in China from 2011 to 2020, the construction index method is used to construct an agricultural insurance development index. A two-way fixed effects model and a multiple intermediary model are used to empirically analyze the income increasing effect of agricultural insurance development on farmers and the income increasing path of agricultural insurance development through agricultural modernization. In addition, a panel threshold model is introduced to study the impact of different levels of agricultural insurance development on farmers' income in heterogeneity analysis, The spatial Durbin model and adjacency matrix were introduced for empirical analysis in examining the spatial spillover effects of agricultural insurance. The results indicate that, firstly, the development of agricultural insurance can significantly increase the income level of farmers, and there exists an intermediary pathway through which agricultural insurance affects agricultural production and thus affects the income level of farmers. Secondly, the development of agricultural insurance has a more significant income increasing effect in the central and western regions, and can better leverage the income increasing effect of agricultural insurance in low-income areas. Thirdly, the development level of agricultural insurance has a dual threshold and three stages. The higher the level of agricultural insurance development, the better the income increasing effect of agricultural insurance. Fourthly, there is a spatial positive autocorrelation phenomenon in the development of agricultural insurance, where areas with high development levels gather and areas with low development levels gather. The development of agricultural insurance can affect the income level of farmers in surrounding areas, and it has a significant positive effect on the average income of rural residents nationwide.

Based on the research results, the article proposes suggestions: in the process of popularizing agricultural insurance, attention should be paid to the subsidy role of government finance, and its function of promoting rural agricultural modernization should be played. Focus on the local development gap of agricultural insurance, and promote the tilt of agricultural insurance and other subsidy policies towards the central and western regions. The research aims to demonstrate the positive significance of agricultural insurance in increasing farmers' income, promoting the sustained high-quality development of agricultural insurance, promoting the modernization and revitalization of rural agriculture, and further improving China's agricultural insurance research system.