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作为切中新常态下中国经济发展脉搏的主动选择，中国经济“双循环”战略是针对中国面临“低端锁定”与“双向挤压”的反思，也是以“马阵跨阱”和“板链拉动”跨越“中等收入陷阱”的战略抉择，既能提升国内经济循环韧性与动能，又能重塑中国国际合作与竞争优势，不断改写社会生产函数，已成为中国由经济大国迈向经济强国的关键一步。然而，在梯度经济发展格局背景下，各地区“双循环”发展水平在空间分布上存在显著不均衡性，尤其是中国现阶段内外循环空间失衡问题日益凸显。若忽略其空间差异，将导致研究结论出现偏差，甚至阻碍中国经济“双循环”战略目标的实现，亦可能对区域经济协同发展产生负面影响。因此，如何制定公平、高效、因地制宜的“双循环”战略实施政策，对于全面推进中国经济“双循环”区域协调发展及空间布局优化具有重要意义，而这依赖于对经济“双循环”时空演进及其驱动因素的科学认识。

鉴此，本文遵循“双循环”发展水平“理论框架构建-评价模型设定-发展水平测度-时空演进刻画-空间效应厘定-驱动因素探索-实践路径优化”的逻辑主线，集多指标综合评价、数理统计、空间分析、空间计量等多元方法模型于一体，在科学、准确地测度中国经济“双循环”发展水平的基础上，立足于地理空间载体，运用地理学空间分析法对中国经济“双循环”的时空演进规律进行分析，并进一步运用时空跃迁矩阵及分位数回归嵌套方法揭示其时空演进的驱动因素，探索促进“双循环”发展水平提升的可行路径，防止或减少“双循环”发展低水平地区的空间锁定，提出加速推进构建“双循环”战略的政策组合体系与实施方法，破解当下构建“双循环”新发展格局从宏观到微观的实践障碍，为设计和优化新的“双循环”战略推进政策奠定基础。

本文的主要研究内容为：（1）构建“双循环”发展水平测度理论框架与评价模型，并采用熵权法-TOPSIS组合权重模型对2001～2020年中国经济“双循环”发展水平进行测度。（2）运用Dagum基尼系数分解和Kernel密度估计法探查全国尺度、区域尺度和省域尺度“双循环”发展现状、地区差异及差异演变。（3）基于GIS空间分析法精准刻画中国经济“双循环”的空间分布形态，并构建分异区域经济“双循环”的Markov概率矩阵，揭示其时空分布的概率。（4）借助探索性时空分析方法与空间计量模型厘清中国经济“双循环”发展水平的分异、集聚、跃迁与收敛性特征，明晰其时空演进趋向。（5）构建中国经济“双循环”影响因素空间计量模型与分位数回归模型，识别其影响因素及时空溢出效应，探索其时空演进的深层次原因，并构造各因素的分位响应类型与时空跃迁类型的嵌套矩阵，刻画中国经济“双循环”时空跃迁与各因素间的多维耦合作用关系，揭示不同响应阶段各因素对其时空跃迁的作用机理。

本文的主要结论为：（1）中国经济“双循环”整体发展水平普遍较低，各省份“双循环”发展水平呈逐年上升态势，但增长较为缓慢；呈现出东部＞中部＞东北＞西部的格局，且在30省份间差异较大，广东、上海、北京各年的“双循环”发展水平一直处于领先地位，而青海、新疆、内蒙古等西部省份处于落后水平。（2）中国经济“双循环”发展水平的总体差异呈先升后降趋势，各省份经济“双循环”长期演进过程中具有收敛态势，落后地区呈现更快的收敛速度，且“双循环”发展水平的绝对差异呈现明显缩小趋势，在发展过程中并未出现极化现象。（3）时序上，“双循环”发展水平呈现向坐标轴正向扩张的演进趋势，随时间推移逐步提升；空间上，“双循环”发展水平演变非均衡性特征明显，呈现由东向西渐次降低的梯度分布特征，但内陆地区发展速度有所提升。中国30省份“双循环”发展水平的分布具有高度的空间锁定或路径依赖特征，不同区域的空间分布较为稳定，15个低-低集聚区（L-L）省份将成为中国经济“双循环”战略目标实现的关键治理区域。（4）中国经济“双循环”发展水平呈现“集聚”与“分异”并存的时空演进特征，且研究期内集聚特征持续加强。19个低发展水平省份的空间锁定将成为整体跃迁的主要障碍，相邻省份的低跃迁性将成为其整体跃迁的关键制约因素。（5）中国经济“双循环”发展水平具有显著的空间溢出效应，“双循环”发展水平不仅受自身因素影响，还受邻近省份空间溢出效应的影响。各因素对中国经济“双循环”发展水平变动影响呈阶段性特征，各因素驱动作用的“临界效应”显著，部分地区存在要素制约所产生的“双循环”发展水平时空的稳定、变动、锁定与跃迁特征。

As a proactive choice that resonates with the pulse of China's economic development under the new normal, the "dual circulation" strategy of the Chinese economy represents a strategic decision made in response to reflections on China's encounter with "low-end lock-in" and "bipolar squeeze". It also represents a strategic decision to leap over the " Middle-income Trap " through approaches like " Horse-mass Crossing Middle Income Trap" and "Plate-chain Pulling Development ". This strategy not only enhances the resilience and momentum of the domestic economic circulation, but also reshapes China’s international cooperation and competition, rewriting the social production function, and has become a key step for China's transition from an economic power to a global economic leader. However, under the pattern of gradient economic development, there is significant imbalance in the spatial distribution of "dual circulation" development levels in various regions, especially in terms of internal and external circulation space. Ignoring this problem will mislead our understanding of the spatial-temporal evolution of "dual circulation" and its driving factors, hindering us from achieving our strategic goal. Therefore, formulating a fair, efficient, and localized implementation policy for the "dual circulation" strategy is crucial for promoting coordinated regional development of China's economic " dual circulation ", which depends on a scientific understanding of the temporal and spatial evolution of the economic " dual circulation " and its driving factors.

Therefore, this study follows the logical sequence of "theoretical framework construction - evaluation model setting - development level measurement - temporal and spatial evolution depiction - spatial effect clarification - driving factors exploration - practical path optimization", integrating multiple indicators comprehensive evaluation, mathematical statistics, spatial econometrics and analysis methods, and measures the precise level of China's economic "dual circulation" development based on geographic spatial carriers. Besides, based on the geographical space, it analyzes the temporal and spatial evolution laws of "dual circulation", applying geographic spatial analysis methods, further reveals the driving factors of its evolution through temporal transition matrix and quantile regression nested method. Moreover, it explores feasible paths for promoting "dual circulation", prevents or reduces the spatial lock-in of low development regions, proposes a policy combination system and implementation method, and puts forward solutions to break the practical obstacles of the "dual circulation" new development pattern from macro to micro level, to provide empirical data and policy basis for relevant policy-makers.

The main contents of this study are as follows: (1) Constructing a theoretical framework and evaluation model for measuring the development level of "dual circulation", and to use the Entropy Method-TOPSIS combined weight model to measure the development level of China's economic "dual circulation" from 2001 to 2020. (2) Using Dagum’s Gini coefficient decomposition method and Kernel density estimation methods to investigate the current status, regional disparities, and disparity evolution of China's economic "dual circulation" at the national, regional, and provincial levels. (3) Accurately delineating the spatial distribution pattern of China's economic "dual circulation" using GIS spatial analysis methods, Markov probability matrices for differentiated regional economic "dual circulation" to reveal the probabilities of its spatial distribution. (4) Clarifying the differentiation, agglomeration, transition, and convergence characteristics of the development level of China's economic "dual circulation" and to elucidate its tendencies in spatiotemporal evolution through exploratory spatiotemporal analysis methods and spatial econometric models. (5) Binding spatial econometric models and quantile regression model of China's economic "double cycle" influencing factors are constructed to identify its influencing factors and spatiotemporal spillover effects, explore the deep-seated reasons for its spatial-temporal evolution, and construct a nested matrix of the quantile response types and spatial-temporal transition types of each factor to describe the multi-dimensional coupling relationship between the spatial-temporal transition of China's economic "double cycle" and various factors. The effects of different factors in different response stages on the temporal and spatial transitions were revealed.

The main conclusions of this study are as follows: (1) The overall development level of China's economic "dual circulation" is generally low, and the development levels of each province showing a year-on-year increase trend but at a relatively slow pace. There is a pattern where the eastern region surpasses the central region, then the northeastern region, followed by the western region. Significant disparities exist among the 30 provinces, with provinces like Guangdong, Shanghai, and Beijing consistently leading in "dual circulation" development levels each year, while western provinces such as Qinghai, Xinjiang, and Inner Mongolia lag behind. (2) The overall disparity in the development level of China's economic "dual circulation" shows a trend of initial increase followed by decrease. During the long-term evolution of economic "dual circulation" in each province, there is a trend towards convergence, with underdeveloped regions demonstrating a faster convergence speed. Moreover, the absolute difference in the development level of the "double cycle" shows an obvious shrinking trend, and there is no polarization phenomenon in the development process. (3) In terms of the temporal evolution, the development level of China's economic "dual circulation" shows a trend of positive expansion towards the coordinate axis, and the level of the "dual circulation" development of each province gradually increases with the passage of time. In terms of spatial pattern, the evolution of China's economic "dual circulation" development level has obvious non-equilibrium characteristics, showing a gradual decline from east to west in gradient distribution, but the development speed of inland areas has increased. The distribution of the "dual circulation" development level in China's 30 provinces has a high degree of spatial lock-in or path dependence, with relatively stable spatial distributions across different regions, and 15 low-low agglomerations (L-L) provinces will become key governance areas for achieving the strategic goals of China's economic "dual circulation". (4) The development level of China's economic "dual circulation" shows the characteristics of "agglomeration" and "differentiation", and the agglomeration characteristics continue to strengthen during the study period. The spatial of 19 provinces with low development levels will become the main barrier to overall transition, and the low transition of neighboring provinces will be a key constraint for their overall transitions. (5) The development level of China's economy " dual circulation " exhibits significant spatial spillover effect, where not only are these levels influenced by internal factors but also by the spillover effects from neighboring provinces. The impacts of various factors on the fluctuations in China's economic "dual circulation" development level demonstrate staged characteristics. The "critical effects" of the driving effect of various factors are notably pronounced. with some regions exhibiting characteristics of stability, change, lock-in, and transition in the spatiotemporal development level of "dual circulation" resulting from factor constraints.