金融学院知识库

受政策引导和社会经济发展等多方面因素的影响，甘肃省人口结构发生了明显的变化。少儿抚养比整体呈下降趋势，而老年人口数量持续上升；由于人民思想和社会认知的变化，人们对于教育的重视程度越来越高，且晚婚、少生的现象也已成为了常态；同时，随着城镇化脚步不断加快，甘肃省的城镇化比例也在逐年提高。新的人口结构特点导致甘肃省现行的保险政策和保险公司原有的保险产品和营销策略不能完全适配市场需求。因此，深入研究甘肃省人口结构发生重大转变后给人身保险需求带来的影响，并为保险公司及有关部门就如何应对这些影响提出对策建议，对推动甘肃省人身保险市场的快速发展具有重大的意义。

本文先是简单的介绍了人口结构和人身保险的基础概念和相关理论，并通过数据和图表动态分析了近年来甘肃省人口结构和人身保险市场的变化情况和现有特点；随后，再分别从少儿抚养比、老年抚养比、城镇化率、家庭规模、教育水平五个维度出发，阐述它们对人身保险需求的影响机制；接着，以前文的分析为基础，运用2007年至2021年甘肃省14个市、州共15年的面板数据，运用固定效用模型，实证研究了以上五个层面的人口结构转变对甘肃省人身保险需求的影响，最后选择收入水平、家庭规模、教受育程度作为异质性分析指标进行了异质性分析，同时进一步研究了人口结构转变对不同人身保险类型的影响情况。

甘肃省与以往学者以全国范围的研究结果有所不同：在人口自然结构方面，老年抚养比对人身保险需求产生显著负相关影响，而少儿抚养比对人身保险需求产生正向的影响但没有通过显著性检验；在人口社会结构方面，较大的家庭规模明显抑制了家庭对于人身保险的需求，而政府在教育上的投入的增加可以带动人身保险的消费；在人口地域结构方面，城市化的进程对人身保险发展的促进作用明显。基于上述理论分析和实证结果，同时结合甘肃省的实际情况，本文提出了相关对策建议：一是创新人身保险产品，以适应人口结构转变；二是提升教育水平，增强大众保险意识；三是持续加快城镇化建设，改善就业提高收入；四是提升行业服务能力，建设专业人才队伍；五是推动经济社会发展，满足大众普惠性保险需求。

Affected by policy guidance and social and economic development, the population structure of Gansu Province has undergone significant changes. The overall dependency ratio of children is declining, while the number of elderly people continues to rise. Due to the changes in people's thinking and social cognition, people pay more and more attention to education, and the phenomenon of late marriage and fewer children has become the norm. At the same time, with the continuous acceleration of urbanization, the urbanization ratio of Gansu Province is also increasing year by year. As a result of the new demographic characteristics, the current insurance policies and the original insurance products and marketing strategies of insurance companies in Gansu Province cannot fully meet the market demand. Therefore, it is of great significance to promote the rapid development of the life insurance market in Gansu Province by conducting an in-depth study on the impact of major demographic changes on the demand for life insurance in Gansu Province, and putting forward countermeasures and suggestions for insurance companies and relevant departments on how to deal with these impacts

This paper first briefly introduces the basic concepts and related theories of population structure and life insurance, and dynamically analyzes the changes and existing characteristics of population structure and life insurance market in Gansu Province in recent years through data and charts. Subsequently, the influencing mechanism of children's dependency ratio, elderly dependency ratio, urbanization rate, family size and education level was expounded from five dimensions: children's dependency ratio, old-age dependency ratio, urbanization rate, family size, and education level. Then, based on the analysis above, using the panel data of 14 cities and prefectures in Gansu Province for 15 years from 2007 to 2021, and using the fixed utility model, the impact of the above five levels of population structure change on the demand for life insurance in Gansu Province was empirically studied.

In Gansu Province, the results of the national study are different from those of previous scholars: in terms of the natural structure of the population, the old-age dependency ratio has a significant negative correlation effect on the demand for life insurance, while the child-dependent ratio has a positive impact on the demand for life insurance but does not pass the significance test. In terms of population and social structure, the large family size obviously inhibits the family's demand for life insurance, while the increase in government investment in education can drive the consumption of life insurance. In terms of population and geographical structure, the process of urbanization has a significant role in promoting the development of life insurance. Based on the above theoretical analysis and empirical results, combined with the actual situation of Gansu Province, this paper puts forward relevant countermeasures and suggestions: first, innovative life insurance products to adapt to the demographic transition; the second is to improve the level of education and enhance the public's awareness of insurance; Third, we will continue to accelerate urbanization, improve employment and increase income; Fourth, improve the service capacity of the industry and build a team of professional talents; Fifth, promote economic and social development and meet the public's demand for inclusive insurance.