统计与数据科学学院知识库

随着城市化、工业化不断加速，中国城市发展面临气候变化、生态环境保 护和经济增长的多重压力，如何在经济增长和生态环境保护之间寻求均衡，更好 理解城市化与环境的互动关系值得深思。中原城市群是黄河流域生态保护和高质 量发展的重要支点，也是遏制区域分化、缩小南北差距，促进地区平衡发展的重 要支撑。该地区城市间产业相似性较高，相互合作水平有限，处于发展早期，且 主要经济支柱为工业，受自然资源和环境条件制约较为明显，具有显著的代表性。 目前的研究多聚焦于评估减污降碳协同效应，检验其实现策略。一些学者探讨了 影响减污降碳协同治理因素及其动态变化，但很少有人使用 LMDI 方法对减污降 碳进行详细分解，进一步分析两者之间的解耦效应的研究则更为稀缺。基于此， 以中原城市群2006-2021年相关环境经济数据为研究对象构建减污降碳的综合指 标，明确减污降碳在中原城市群的时空演变特点，根据区域间自然禀赋和要素差 异使用 LMDI 分解模型研究其减污降碳的驱动因素，深入探索不同功能区域各因 素与减污降碳的脱钩努力程度。为研究中原城市群在经济发展不受约束的情况 下，如何更好实现其减污降碳协同增效，改善地区生态环境提供科学参考和有效 建议，研究结论如下： （1）中原城市群减污降碳时间趋势的变化较为一致，空间上存在差异且差 异逐渐缩小。从五大区域的时序变化规律可以发现，污染排放在考察期稳步上升； 从减污降碳的空间差异视角来看，南部高效生态经济示范区组间、组内减污降碳 水平均较为平衡，核心发展区组内减污降碳差异较为显著，东部承接产业转移示 范区组间减污降碳水平发展差异较大。 （2）中原城市群减污降碳驱动因素分解中，能源强度效应和实体经济人口 承载强度有力推动中原城市群减污降碳实现污染减排；经济规模和技术进步则是 使污染排放加剧的主要因素。 （3）中原城市群减污降碳主要处于弱脱钩状态，且城市群整体层面各年份 减污降碳不同效应的脱钩努力指数存在差异，其差异原因与 LMDI 分解结果相一 致。各区域减污降碳脱钩水平中，核心发展区和南部高效生态经济示范区处于强 脱钩状态，西部转型创新发展示范区属于弱脱钩状态；北部跨区域协同发展区和 东部承接产业转移示范区属于无脱钩状态。此外，五大区域中能源消耗强度是有 效促进脱钩实现的共同因素，城镇化水平则是抑制强脱钩的公共因素。

With the continuous acceleration of urbanization and industrialization, China's urban development is facing multiple pressures from climate change, ecological environment protection, and economic growth. It is worth pondering how to seek a balance between economic growth and ecological environment protection, and better understand the interactive relationship between urbanization and the environment. The Central Plains urban agglomeration is an important fulcrum for ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin, as well as an important support for curbing regional differentiation, narrowing the gap between the north and south, and promoting balanced regional development. The industrial similarity between cities in this region is high, and the level of mutual cooperation is limited. It is in the early stages of development, and the main economic pillar is industry, which is more significantly constrained by natural resources and environmental conditions, and has significant representativeness. Current research mainly focuses on evaluating the synergistic effects of pollution reduction and carbon reduction, and testing their implementation strategies. Some scholars have explored the factors and dynamic changes that affect the collaborative governance of pollution reduction and carbon reduction, but few have used the LMDI method to decompose pollution reduction and carbon reduction in detail. Further analysis of the decoupling effect between the two is even rarer. Based on this, a comprehensive indicator for pollution reduction and carbon reduction is constructed using relevant environmental and economic data from the Central Plains urban agglomeration from 2006 to 2021 as the research object. The spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in the Central Plains urban agglomeration are clarified, and the driving factors for pollution reduction and carbon reduction are studied using the LMDI decomposition model based on regional natural endowments and factor differences. The degree of decoupling efforts between each factor and pollution reduction and carbon reduction is explored in depth. To study how the Central Plains urban agglomeration can better achieve its synergistic effect of pollution reduction and carbon reduction, and improve the regional ecological environment without constraints on economic development, scientific references and effective suggestions are provided. The research conclusions are as follows: (1) The temporal trend of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in the Central Plains urban agglomeration is relatively consistent, with spatial differences gradually narrowing. From the temporal variation patterns of the five major regions, it can be found that pollution emissions steadily increased during the investigation period; From the perspective of spatial differences in pollution reduction and carbon reduction, the inter group and intra group levels of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in the southern high-efficiency ecological economy demonstration zone are relatively balanced, while the differences in pollution reduction and carbon reduction within the core development zone are significant. The development differences in pollution reduction and carbon reduction levels between the eastern industrial transfer demonstration zone groups are significant. (2) In the decomposition of driving factors for pollution reduction and carbon reduction in the Central Plains urban agglomeration, the energy intensity effect and the population carrying capacity of the real economy strongly promote pollution reduction and carbon reduction in the Central Plains urban agglomeration; Economic scale and technological progress are the main factors that exacerbate pollution emissions. (3) The pollution reduction and carbon reduction in the Central Plains urban agglomeration are mainly in a weak decoupling state, and there are differences in the decoupling effort index of different effects of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in different years at the overall level of the urban agglomeration, which is consistent with the LMDI decomposition results. Among the levels of pollution reduction and carbon reduction decoupling in various regions, the core development zone and the southern high-efficiency ecological economy demonstration zone are in a strong decoupling state, while the western transformation and innovation development demonstration zone is in a weak decoupling state; The northern cross regional collaborative development zone and the eastern demonstration zone for undertaking industrial transfer are in a non decoupling state. In addition, energy consumption intensity is a common factor that effectively promotes decoupling in the five major regions, while urbanization level is a public factor that suppresses strong decoupling.