统计与数据科学学院知识库

近年来，我国城镇化进入到快速发展阶段，城市是一个复杂多样的系统，在遭受内外各种冲击影响下，系统内部存在越来越多不确定、城市韧性的提升显得至关重要。在此背景下，越来越来多学者和政策制定者将重点放在抵御外界因素干扰、推动城市韧性可持续发展上。论文对甘肃省各市州城市韧性进行定量评估，将城市韧性分为经济、生态、社会和基础设施四个子系统，找出城市韧性各子系统的冲击关系，及系统内部各因素之间相互作用关系和动态变化过程，探讨城市韧性系统运行机制，进而预测甘肃省城市韧性2010-2030年发展趋势，得出适合甘肃省城市韧性发展的提升方案。

首先，通过概括城市韧性发展的理念，总结相关的研究成果，在可持续发展、韧性理论、及复杂系统理论视角，为论文研究与分析奠定理论基础。从四个子系统层面（经济、生态、社会和基础设施）构建城市韧性发展水平指标体系，对甘肃省城市韧性发展进行评估，为后续韧性的分析提供新视角。

其次，从时间和空间维度对甘肃省城市韧性进行测度分析，引入PVAR模型，分析甘肃省城市韧性四个子系统间的互动和影响关系情况。为进一步找出城市韧性内部指标间因果关系及动态变化过程，将甘肃省各市州韧性分为三大类：高韧性、中低韧性和低韧性，借助系统动力学模型对三类城市进行仿真模拟，设定四种情景方案进行模拟分析，综合甘肃省城市实际情况，得出最优方案，进而提高甘肃省各市州城市韧性。

最后，论文根据各子系统间的影响关系情况，结合系统动力学模型模拟结果，提出最佳提升方案，从而针对甘肃省城市韧性现状，对甘肃城市韧性情况提出思考和展望，试图为城市韧性提升给予相关参考。

In recent years, China's urbanization has entered a stage of rapid development. City is a complex and diverse system. Under the influence of various internal and external shocks, there are more and more uncertainties within the system, and the improvement of urban resilience is crucial. In this context, more and more scholars and policy makers are focusing on resisting the interference of external factors and promoting the resilience and sustainable development of cities. Paper quantitative assessment of Gansu province cities city toughness, the urban toughness is divided into economic, ecological, social and infrastructure four subsystems, find out the impact of the urban toughness system, and internal factors interaction and dynamic change process, explore the urban toughness system operation mechanism, and predict the city toughness in Gansu province in 2010-2030 development trend, is suitable for the development of urban toughness in Gansu province.

First of all, by summarizing the concept of urban resilience development, summarizing the relevant research results, and laying a theoretical foundation for the research and analysis of the paper from the perspective of sustainable development, resilience theory, and complex system theory. Build the index system of urban resilience development level from the four subsystem levels (economic, ecological, social and infrastructure), evaluate the urban resilience development of cities in Gansu Province, and provide a new perspective for the subsequent analysis of resilience.

Secondly, the measure of urban resilience in Gansu Province was analyzed from the temporal and spatial dimensions, and the PVAR model was introduced to analyze the interaction and influence relationship among the four subsystems of urban resilience in Gansu Province. Urban toughness to further find out the causal relationship between internal indicators and dynamic change process, the cities in Gansu province state toughness is divided into three categories: high toughness, low toughness and low toughness, with the help of system dynamics model of city simulation simulation, set four scenarios simulation analysis, comprehensive city actual situation in Gansu province, the optimal scheme, and improve the cities of Gansu province state city toughness.

Finally, according to the influence relationship between each subsystem and the simulation results of the system dynamic model, the paper proposes the best improvement scheme, so as to put forward thinking and prospects on the resilience of cities in Gansu province according to the current situation of urban resilience in Gansu Province, and try to give relevant reference for the improvement of urban resilience.