金融学院知识库

十年以来，我国碳减排政策围绕产业结构、能源结构和交通结构的调整已经取得瞩目成就，2013年到2022年，在保持国民生产总值增长69%的情况下，减少了10亿吨二氧化碳排放。并且第三产业逐渐成为碳排放增长的主要“贡献者”，新一代信息技术和服务行业、金融行业等与第三产业快速融合发展，深刻改变了人们的生活方式，绿色金融逐渐出现在人们的视野。其中保险作为绿色金融的重要组成部分，在国民经济和抵御气候灾害风险中发挥越来越重要的作用。管如此，中国目前减排之路还存在多种挑战，其中居民收入的提高会导致未来中产阶级人口增加，消费需求也会同步提升，怎样以低碳方式供给日渐增长的隐形高消费人群成为急需解决的问题。

因此，本文具体剖析了商业保险参与对家庭间接碳排放的影响，基于对环境库兹涅茨曲线假说、污染者负担原则理论、家庭消费结构理论、预期性储蓄理论和可持续生计理论，从理论层面上进行商业保险对家庭间接碳排放的机制探讨，例如消费水平作用机制、消费结构升级作用机制和收入效应机制，丰富了商业保险对家庭碳排放的影响路径的研究。其次，本文通过2016年、2018年和2020年中国家庭追踪调查问卷数据进行了实证分析，并利用消费者生活方式法测算家庭间接碳排放总量，将家庭是否购买商业保险和人均商业保险保费支出作为核心解释变量进行回归。此外，本文还利用中介效应模型检验其中的作用机制，并从地区差异和家庭消费结构偏好差异等视角进行了异质性分析。研究发现（1）购买商业保险的家庭间接碳排放显著高于没有购买商业保险的家庭，且间接碳排放随着人均商业保险保费支出边际递增；（2）商业保险能够降低家庭预防性储蓄，释放消费水平，增加家庭间接碳排放；（3）家庭购买商业保险会改变家庭消费偏好，导致消费结构中享受型和发展型消费比重上升，从而促进家庭间接碳排放；（4）商业保险能够提升非生存型消费比重和扩大家庭收入规模，从而促进间接碳排放水平的提高；（5）商业保险对家庭间接碳排放的作用在不同地区及城乡之间具有差异性，且商业保险对享受和发展型消费的促进作用更加明显，因此应当更加关注农村地区、高收入家庭的消费行为。

通过上述理论推导和实证检验，表明商业保险对家庭间接碳排放有重要影响，政府和社会各界应当重视从微观家庭层面解决碳排放问题。尽管商业保险促进了家庭间接碳排放，但并不意味着压缩商业保险的市场，而是应当通过对中间机制的深入研究，正确引导商业保险对间接碳排放的作用方向。对此本文提出以下建议：从生产端看，首先应当鼓励保险公司进行绿色保险产品创新，推动生产企业低碳转型，其次应当优化产业市场和绿色保险市场的营商环境，建立环保市场机制；从消费端看，一方面政府和保险公司应当因地制宜实行差异化消费政策和保险推广，完善低碳消费激励机制，另一方面，应当加强色消费教育宣传，引导转变家庭消费模式。

Over the past decade, China's carbon emission reduction policies have made remarkable achievements in the adjustment of industrial structure, energy structure and transportation structure, and from 2013 to 2022, 1 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions have been reduced while maintaining a 69% growth in GDP. In addition, the tertiary industry has gradually become the main "contributor" to the growth of carbon emissions. The new generation of information technology and service industries, as well as the financial industry, have rapidly integrated with the tertiary industry, profoundly changing people's lifestyle, and green finance has gradually appeared in people's vision. Insurance, as an important part of green finance, plays an increasingly important role in national economy and climate disaster risk prevention. In spite of this, there are still many challenges in China's current road to emission reduction. Among them, the increase in residents' income will lead to the increase of the middle class population in the future, and the consumption demand will also increase simultaneously. How to supply the growing number of invisible high consumers in a low-carbon way has become an urgent problem to be solved.

Therefore, this paper specifically analyzes the impact of commercial insurance participation on household indirect carbon emissions. Based on the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis, polluter pays principle theory, household consumption structure theory, prospective savings theory and sustainable livelihood theory, this paper discusses the mechanism of commercial insurance on household indirect carbon emissions from the theoretical level. For example, the mechanism of consumption level, the mechanism of consumption structure upgrading and the mechanism of income effect have enriched the research on the influence path of commercial insurance on household carbon emissions. Secondly, this paper conducts an empirical analysis on the data of Chinese household tracking questionnaires in 2016, 2018 and 2020, and uses the consumer lifestyle method to estimate the total indirect carbon emissions of households. The regression takes whether households purchase commercial insurance and the per capita premium expenditure of commercial insurance as the core explanatory variables. In addition, this paper also uses the intermediary effect model to test the mechanism, and analyzes the heterogeneity from the perspectives of regional differences and household consumption structure preference differences. The results show that (1) the indirect carbon emission of households with commercial insurance is significantly higher than that of households without commercial insurance, and the indirect carbon emission increases with the margin of per capita commercial insurance premium expenditure; (2) Commercial insurance can reduce household precautionary savings, release consumption levels, and increase household indirect carbon emissions; (3) The purchase of commercial insurance by households will change household consumption preferences, leading to an increase in the proportion of enjoyment and development consumption in the consumption structure, thus promoting household indirect carbon emissions; (4) Commercial insurance can increase the proportion of non-subsistence consumption and expand household income scale, thus promoting the improvement of indirect carbon emission level; (5) The effect of commercial insurance on household indirect carbon emissions is different in different regions and between urban and rural areas, and the promotion effect of commercial insurance on enjoyment and development-oriented consumption is more obvious. Therefore, more attention should be paid to the consumption behavior of rural areas and high-income households.

Through the above theoretical deduction and empirical test, it is shown that commercial insurance has an important impact on indirect household carbon emissions, and the government and all sectors of society should pay attention to solving carbon emissions at the micro household level. Although commercial insurance promotes indirect carbon emissions of households, it does not mean that the market of commercial insurance should be compressed, but through in-depth research on the intermediate mechanism, the role of commercial insurance on indirect carbon emissions should be correctly guided. This paper puts forward the following suggestions: From the production side, firstly, insurance companies should be encouraged to carry out green insurance product innovation and promote the low-carbon transformation of production enterprises; secondly, the business environment of industrial market and green insurance market should be optimized and environmental protection market mechanism should be established. From the consumer side, on the one hand, the government and insurance companies should implement differentiated consumption policies and insurance promotion according to local conditions, improve the incentive mechanism for low-carbon consumption, on the other hand, they should strengthen the education and publicity of color consumption, and guide the transformation of household consumption patterns.