统计与数据科学学院知识库

数字经济是促进社会发展的新形态，也是赋能绿色发展的关键手段。本文选 取中国 275 个城市作为研究对象，构建指标体系测算数字经济指数与绿色高质量 发展指数，使用核密度估计法、Dagum 基尼系数、面板 Tobit 模型、LightGBM 等方法，研究数字经济与绿色高质量发展的现状、时空演变及区域差异特征、影 响效应和作用路径。得到结论如下：

中国 275 个城市的数字经济发展水平不断提高，发展速度呈现“中部＞东部 ＞西部”的特点，且区域差异逐渐收敛；绿色高质量发展水平呈现“东高西低、 南快北慢”的空间格局，整体发展速度较为稳定，区域差异呈“W 型”变化趋势。 数字经济对绿色高质量发展存在“倒 U 型”的非线性影响，对绿色高质量发展影 响因素重要度排序靠前的 5 个因素依次是产业结构升级、数字经济发展、环境规 制、科技研发投资和对外开放，并且彼此之间存在明显的交互作用。使用 SHAP 值进一步分析影响路径，结果显示数字经济、科技研发投资和经济发展能够促进 绿色高质量发展；产业升级、金融发展、对外开放和财政支出会抑制其发展。

因此，未来还应进一步加强数字经济的顶层设计，制定实施差异化发展战略。 对数据资源进行宏观调控，精准施策；完善新型数字基础设施，拓展数字技术的 应用深度，并健全数字经济发展体系，提高绿色创新能力；政府要营造良好的发 展环境，建立健全数字化治理体系，推动数实融合发展，用数字经济赋能绿色高 质量发展。

Digital economy is not only a new form to promote social development, but also an important means to enable green development. This thesis selects 275 cities in China as research objects, constructs index systems to measure the digital economy index and green high-quality development index respectively. Using kernel density estimation method, Dagum Gini coefficient, panel Tobit model, LightGBM and other methods, this thesis studies the status quo, spatio-temporal evolution, regional differences, effects and action paths of digital economy and green highquality development. The conclusions are as follows:

The level of digital economy development in China's 275 cities has been continuously improved, with the development speed showing the characteristics of "central > eastern > western", and the regional differences are gradually converging. The green high-quality development level presents a spatial pattern of "high in the east and low in the west, fast in the south and slow in the north", the overall development speed is relatively stable, and the regional differences show a "W-shaped" trend. Digital economy has an "inverted U-shaped" nonlinear impact on green highquality development. The top five factors in the order of importance of green high-quality development are industrial structure upgrading, digital economy development, environmental regulation, scientific and technological research and development investment and opening to the outside world, and there is an obvious interaction between them. Using SHAP values to further analyze the impact path, the results show that digital economy, R&D investment and economic development can promote green and high-quality development; Industrial upgrading, financial development, opening to the outside world and fiscal expenditure will inhibit its development.

In the future, we should further strengthen the top-level design of the digital economy and formulate and implement differentiated development strategies. Macro-control of data resources and precise policies; Improve the new digital infrastructure, expand the depth of application of digital technology, and improve the development system of digital economy and the green innovation capacity; The government should create a good development environment, establish a sound digital governance system, promote the integration development of digital and real economy, and use the digital economy to enable green and high-quality development.