统计与数据科学学院知识库

      2021年中央财经委员会第十次会议明确提出，扩大中等收入群体的重点、难点在农村，只有降低人口众多的农村低收入群体比重，持续快速提高农村居民收入，才能有效推动收入分配结构向橄榄型转换。2023年召开的中央金融工作会议提出做好科技金融、绿色金融、普惠金融、养老金融、数字金融五篇大文章。普惠金融能够提升金融服务的覆盖率和可得性，对低收入人群收入水平的提升至关重要，有利于推动实现全体人民共同富裕。数字金融能够增进金融服务的普惠性，以数字技术赋能普惠金融，能够有效补齐传统金融在地理障碍与风险评估方面的短板，满足欠发达地区和社会低收入者对金融产品和服务的需求。因此，探究数字普惠金融对农村居民收入的影响机制，对拓宽农民增收致富渠道具有重要意义。
本文在梳理总结国内外现有文献的基础上，基于2014年-2021年全国232个地级市共1856个样本的面板数据，探究数字普惠金融对农村居民收入的影响。首先，梳理数字普惠金融影响农村居民收入的相关理论，阐述数字普惠金融的内涵与特征，并分析数字普惠金融的发展现状；其次，在理论层面对数字普惠金融影响农村居民收入的影响机制进行探讨；最后，采用固定效应模型和中介效应模型探究数字普惠金融对农村居民收入的影响机制，并通过异质性检验分析数字普惠金融对不同区域农村居民收入、同区域不同收入水平和不同收入来源的差异性。
      主要结论如下：①数字普惠金融能够促进农村居民增收，其中覆盖广度的增收效应最显著；②数字普惠金融对东中西部地区农村居民的增收效应具有区域差异，对东部地区农村居民的增收效应最强，西部次之，中部最弱，其中使用深度下的保险业务对东部和中部地区的增收效应不显著；③数字普惠金融能够提升农村居民的各项收入，对转移净收入的增收效应最弱，其中使用深度和支付、保险及信贷业务对财产性收入不具备显著的增收效应；④数字普惠金融对中低收入群体具有显著的增收效应，对高收入群体的影响不明显；⑤在数字普惠金融影响农村居民收入增长的过程中地方经济增长水平和产业结构优化均发挥部分中介效应。

     本文所做的工作和创新之处主要有：①构建包含232个地级市1856个样本的面板数据，结合最新一期的数字普惠金融指数，从市级层面出发探究数字普惠金融对农村居民收入的影响机制；②利用覆盖广度、使用深度、数字化程度以及使用深度下的支付、保险、信贷和投资业务七个子指标，从多个维度探究数字普惠金融对农村居民收入的影响；③按照不同区域、不同收入来源和不同收入水平划分样本，进一步细化了数字普惠金融对农村居民收入的异质性影响。

   The 10th meeting of the Central Committee for Financial and Economic Affairs in 2021 clearly stated that the focus and challenge in expanding the middle-income group lie in rural areas. Only by reducing the proportion of low-income groups in densely populated rural areas and continuously increasing rural residents' income at a rapid pace can the restructuring of income distribution towards an olive-shaped pattern be effectively promoted. The Central Financial Work Conference held in 2023 proposed to emphasize efforts in five key areas: technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance. Inclusive finance is crucial for increasing the coverage and accessibility of financial services, which is vital for improving the income levels of low-income populations and promoting the realization of common prosperity for all people. Digital finance enhances the inclusiveness of financial services. By empowering inclusive finance with digital technology, it effectively addresses the shortcomings of traditional finance in terms of geographical barriers and risk assessment, meeting the financial product and service needs of underdeveloped areas and low-income individuals. Therefore, exploring the impact mechanism of digital inclusive finance on rural residents' income has significant importance for expanding the channels for increasing farmers' income and wealth. Therefore, exploring the impact mechanism of digital inclusive finance on rural residents' income is of great significance for expanding channels for farmers to increase income and become prosperous.

  Based on the review and summary of existing literature both domestically and internationally, this paper explores the impact of digital inclusive finance on the income of rural residents, utilizing panel data from 1,856 samples across 232 prefecture-level cities nationwide from 2014 to 2021. Firstly, it reviews the relevant theories regarding the impact of digital inclusive finance on rural residents' income, elucidates the connotation and characteristics of digital inclusive finance, and analyzes its current development status. Secondly, it discusses the mechanisms through which digital inclusive finance affects rural residents' income at the theoretical level. Finally, it empirically tests the impact of digital inclusive finance on rural residents' income using fixed-effects models and mediation effects models, and through heterogeneity tests, it analyzes the differences in the impact of digital inclusive finance on the income of rural residents in different regions, different income levels within the same region, and different sources of income.
   The main conclusions are as follows:（1）Digital inclusive finance can promote the growth of rural residents' income, with the most significant effect being the broadening of coverage.（2）The effect of digital inclusive finance on increasing the income of rural residents in the eastern, central, and western regions varies, with the strongest effect in the eastern region,followed by the western region, and the weakest effect in the central region. The use of insurance services under deep coverage has no significant effect on income growth in the eastern and central regions.（3） Digital inclusive finance can enhance various sources of income for rural residents, with the weakest effect on increasing net transfer income. The use of depth and payment, insurance, and credit services does not have a significant effect on property income growth.（4）Digital inclusive finance has a significant effect on increasing the income of the middle- and low-income groups, with less pronounced impacts on high-income groups.（5）In the process of digital inclusive finance impacting the income growth of rural residents, local economic growth levels and industrial structure optimization both play partial intermediary roles.
This work demonstrates several key contributions and innovations:（1）Constructing a panel dataset comprising 1856 samples from 232 prefecture-level cities, combined with the latest digital inclusive finance index, to investigate the impact mechanism of digital inclusive finance on rural residents' income at the city level.（2）Exploring the impact of digital inclusive finance on rural residents' income from multiple dimensions, utilizing seven sub-indices including coverage breadth, depth of usage, degree of digitization, and the depth of usage in payment, insurance, credit, and investment services.（3）Refining the heterogeneous impact of digital inclusive finance on rural residents' income by dividing the samples according to different regions, sources of income, and income levels.