统计与数据科学学院知识库

自改革开放以来，我国经济社会发展取得了显著成就，然而，在人口和环境等方面与经济发展的协调性仍存在不少问题。作为一个人口数量庞大、资源相对匮乏的发展中国家，我国正致力于构建以生态文明建设和实现“美丽中国”为目标的发展模式，这关乎人民的福祉和民族的未来。在“十四五”规划中，我国已经明确提出要深化区域协调发展战略，推进绿色发展，促使人与自然和谐共存。中国经济之所以能够快速增长，很大程度上依赖于人口红利和大量资源的投入。但近些年来，随着自然环境的持续恶化和人口红利的逐渐消失，这些因素已对经济发展产生了限制作用，形成了一种恶性循环，加剧了人口、经济、环境三者之间的矛盾。因此，在新的时期，准确分析人口、经济与环境三个系统之间的相互联系和内在制约关系，实现它们之间的协调发展，成为了一个重要的研究课题。

基于此，本文首先通过阐述人口、经济、环境相关的概念、理论，构建人口-经济-环境协调发展的综合评价指标体系，利用耦合协调度模型计算我国人口-经济-环境的协调发展水平，利用探索性空间数据探究各省域协调度在时间和空间上的差异及其变化状况，进而在对其协调度及时空差异研究的基础上分别利用传统及空间马尔科夫链对我国协调发展水平的动态演进趋势展开讨论并进行进一步预测。

综合分析我国31个省（市、自治区）的人口、经济、环境耦合协调度及其空间变化差异与长期趋势预测，研究表明：（1）综合发展水平总体上升：我国的人口、经济、环境综合发展水平整体呈现上升趋势，其中经济发展速度显著高于人口和环境的综合发展速度。然而，省域间存在较大差异，显示出两极分化和发展成果普惠性不足的问题。（2）耦合协调度东高西低：通过耦合协调度模型分析，发现我国各省域的人口-经济-环境耦合协调发展水平呈现“东高西低”的空间分布特征，且随时间逐渐向外扩散。尽管各省经历了从不协调到磨合的发展过程，但尚未达到高级协调阶段。（3）地理背景与区域协同：地理背景在耦合协调发展水平的转移中起到了重要作用，区域协调发展水平与邻域地区存在紧密的协同关系。长期趋势显示，人口-经济-环境耦合协调发展水平具有稳定性，存在“俱乐部收敛”现象，且与邻域协调发展水平有较强的协同性。（4）长期趋势向好：总体而言，我国人口-经济-环境耦合协调发展的长期趋势较为乐观，随时间推移，协调发展水平逐步提升，向高值集中的趋势明显。基于以上结论，本文从提升市场化强度，加强创新投入力度，以环境保护为主导，以区域联动、合作、扶持为思路促进协调发展四个方面提出政策建议。

Since the reform and opening up, China has made remarkable achievements in economic and social development, but there are still many problems in the coordination between population and environment and economic development. As a developing country with a large population and relatively scarce resources, China is committed to building a development model with the goal of building ecological civilization and realizing "Beautiful China", which is related to the well-being of the people and the future of the nation. In the "14th Five-Year Plan", China has clearly proposed to deepen the strategy of coordinated regional development, promote green development, and promote the harmonious coexistence of man and nature. The rapid growth of China's economy depends to a large extent on the demographic dividend and the investment of a large amount of resources. However, in recent years, with the continuous deterioration of the natural environment and the gradual disappearance of the demographic dividend, these factors have restricted economic development, formed a vicious circle, and exacerbated the contradiction between population, economy and environment. Therefore, in the new era, it has become an important research topic to accurately analyze the interconnection and internal constraints between the three systems of population, economy and environment, and to realize the coordinated development between them.

Based on this, this paper firstly expounds the concepts and theories related to population, economy and environment, constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system for the coordinated development of population, economy and environment, uses the coupling coordination degree model to calculate the coordinated development level of population, economy and environment in China, and uses exploratory spatial data to explore the differences and changes in time and space of the coordination degree of each province. Then, on the basis of the study of the coordination degree and the spatio-temporal differences, the traditional and spatial Markov chains are used to discuss the dynamic evolution trend of China's coordinated development level and further predict it.

This paper comprehensively analyzes the coupling coordination degree of population, economy and environment, the differences in spatial change and the prediction of long-term trend in 31 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) in China, the results show that: (1) the overall increase in the comprehensive development level of population, economy and environment in China, and the economic development rate is significantly higher than the comprehensive development rate of population and environment. However, there are large differences between provinces, indicating polarization and insufficient inclusiveness of development outcomes. (2) The coupling coordination degree is high in the east and low in the west: through the analysis of the coupling coordination degree model, it is found that the level of population-economy-environment coupling and coordinated development in each province in China presents the spatial distribution characteristics of "high in the east and low in the west", and gradually spreads outward with time. Although the provinces have gone through a development process from uncoordinated to run-in, they have not yet reached the stage of advanced coordination. (3) Geographical background and regional synergy: Geographical context plays an important role in the transfer of the level of coupling and coordinated development, and there is a close synergistic relationship between the level of regional coordinated development and the neighboring regions. The long-term trend shows that the level of coordinated development of population-economy-environment coupling is stable, there is a phenomenon of "club convergence", and there is a strong synergy with the level of coordinated development of neighborhood. (4) Long-term trend is improving: In general, the long-term trend of the coupled and coordinated development of population, economy and environment in China is relatively optimistic, and the level of coordinated development gradually improves with the passage of time, and the trend towards high value concentration is obvious. Based on the above conclusions, this paper puts forward policy suggestions from four aspects: improving marketization intensity, strengthening innovation investment, taking environmental protection as the leading factor, and promoting coordinated development with regional linkage, cooperation and support as the ideas.