统计与数据科学学院知识库

农业是中国经济的重要支柱，但农业大而不强的突出特点是我国首要深刻认识的问题。农业劳动生产率、土地产出率、资源利用率与全球主要农业强国相比仍然存在差距。要想振兴农业经济、提升农业TFP，人才是根本。但我国老年人口比例持续增长、劳动年龄人口趋于下降，由此带来的人口红利优势逐渐减弱，同时随着高等教育毛入学率的上升和高校毕业生的快速增加，必然会推动我国人口红利向人力资本红利转变。由此可见，人口发展在加快建设农业强国的目标中具有重要作用。

基于此，本文以中国、印度、德国、美国为研究对象，进行国际对比分析人口红利与人力资本红利模式转换对农业TFP的影响。首先，运用增长核算框架测算农业TFP，为了更科学的把握农业生产要素对农业发展的影响，运用C-D生产函数测算农业生产要素对农业产出增长的贡献；其次，以人口规模、人口年龄结构、总抚养比来分析四国的人口红利现状，以教育公共支出和平均受教育年限分析四国的人力资本现状，总结归纳人口红利与人力资本红利模式转换现状；最后，运用固定效应模型系统探究人口红利与人力资本红利模式转换对农业TFP的影响。

研究结果表明：（1）中国1990-2020年农业TFP比印度、德国、美国的增长速度快且呈直线上升趋势，中国农业饲料和农业机械的投入对农业产出增长贡献相对较高，印度、德国和美国分别是农业饲料、农业牲畜、农业土地对农业产出增长贡献最高；（2）中国人口红利未消失且教育水平正在实现跨越，印度在2019年进入人口红利且教育水平相对落后，德国人口红利在2005年消失且教育水平优越，美国人口红利在2013年消失且让教育水平保持高标准；（3）基于各国人口红利与人力资本红利模式转换对农业TFP的影响分析，全样本结果显示：人口红利对农业TFP有抑制作用，人力资本对农业TFP有显著促进作用，但人口红利优势的持续减弱使得人力资本对农业TFP的促进作用有所下降；单样本结果显示：德国和美国的模型结果与全样本结果分析一致，但中国人口红利持续减弱和印度刚步入人口红利期的原因使得中国和印度的人力资本对农业TFP的显著促进作用消失。最后，根据以上研究结论，本文从提高农业要素配置效率，优化人口结构，促进人口红利向人才红利转变、聚焦农业人力资本开发，加快农业科技创新等四方面提出建议。

Agriculture is an important pillar of China's economy, but the outstanding feature of agriculture is the most deeply recognized problem in China. There is still a gap between agricultural labor productivity, land output rate and resource utilization rate compared with the major agricultural powers in the world. In order to revitalize agricultural economy and enhance agricultural TFP, talent is fundamental. However, the proportion of the elderly population in China continues to increase and the working-age population tends to decline, which will gradually weaken the advantage of demographic dividend. At the same time, with the rise of gross enrollment ratio of higher education and the rapid increase of college graduates, it will inevitably promote the transformation of China's demographic dividend into human capital dividend. It can be seen that population development plays an important role in accelerating the goal of building an agricultural power.

Based on this, this thesis takes China, India, Germany and the United States as the research objects to conduct an international comparative analysis of the impact of demographic dividend and human capital dividend model conversion on agricultural TFP. Firstly, the growth accounting framework was used to measure agricultural TFP. In order to grasp the influence of agricultural production factors on agricultural development more scientifically, the C-D production function was used to measure the contribution of agricultural production factors to agricultural output growth. Secondly, the demographic dividend status of the four countries is analyzed by population size, population age structure and total dependency ratio, and the human capital status of the four countries is analyzed by public expenditure on education and average years of schooling, and the mode transformation status of demographic dividend and human capital dividend is summarized. Finally, the fixed effect model system is used to explore the impact of demographic dividend and human capital dividend model conversion on agricultural TFP.

The results show that: (1) Compared with India, Germany and the United States, the growth rate of agricultural TFP in China from 1990 to 2020 is faster than that in India, Germany and the United States, the contribution of agricultural feed and agricultural machinery input to the growth of agricultural output is relatively high, and the contribution of agricultural feed, agricultural livestock and agricultural land to the growth of agricultural output is the highest in India, Germany and the United States. (2) China's demographic dividend has not disappeared and its education level is making strides, India entered the demographic dividend in 2019 and its education level is relatively backward, Germany's demographic dividend disappeared in 2005 and its education level is superior, and the United States' demographic dividend disappeared in 2013 and kept its education level high; (3) Based on the analysis of the impact of demographic dividend and human capital dividend model conversion on agricultural TFP in various countries, the results of the full sample show that: demographic dividend has a inhibitory effect on agricultural TFP, and human capital has a significant promotion effect on agricultural TFP, but the continuous weakening of demographic dividend advantage makes the promotion effect of human capital on agricultural TFP decline. The single sample results show that the model results of Germany and the United States are consistent with the results of the full sample analysis, but the reason that China's demographic dividend continues to weaken and India has just entered the demographic dividend period makes the significant promoting effect of human capital on agricultural TFP in China and India disappear. Finally, according to the above research conclusions, this paper puts forward suggestions from four aspects: improving the allocation efficiency of agricultural factors, optimizing the population structure, promoting the transformation of demographic dividend to talent dividend, focusing on the development of agricultural human capital, and accelerating the innovation of agricultural science and technology.