统计与数据科学学院知识库

粮食安全关乎民生大计，是保证国家社会安定的基石，对国家能否自立、人民能否自强、社会能否稳定、经济能否发展起着决定性作用。近年来，随着国际局势和粮食市场形势的加剧演变，我国作为世界粮食市场的一员，面临的粮食安全问题更加突出，只有解决好粮食安全问题，社会经济才能够实现又快又好发展，我国才能立足于国内市场，从容面对复杂多变的国际形势。因此，扛稳国家粮食安全重任，任重而道远。

在此背景下，本文首先以我国粮食安全在新发展阶段所呈现出来的新内涵为研究导向，基于供给能力、供给结构、绿色发展、经济效益以及基础支撑五个层面，构建了21个二级指标在内的粮食安全评价体系，并对我国粮食安全的发展现状进行分析。其次利用一致性检验确定改进的CRITIC权重法为最优指标赋权方法，进而用CRITIC-TOPSIS评价模型，对2010-2021年我国粮食安全状况进行综合评价。最后采用障碍度分析法，找出影响粮食安全发展过程中的主要影响因素因素，并进一步运用灰色预测模型对我国未来九年粮食供需进行预测。

主要研究结论有以下几点：（1）改进的CRITIC权重法是最优的指标赋权方法。（2）运用CRITIC-TOPSIS评价模型对粮食安全进行了评价，从时间尺度看，我国粮食安全发展大致经历了三个阶段，2010-2015年为第一阶段，从不安全级别跨到了较安全级别。2015-2016年为第二阶段，粮食安全级别从较安全跌落至临界安全级别。2016-2021年为第三阶段，粮食安全级别在2021年迈入理想安全级别。各子系统综合得分排名依次为：绿色发展水平、供给能力水平、经济效益水平、供给结构水平、基础支撑水平。（3）从空间尺度看，我国粮食安全水平整体呈现出“南低北高”的发展趋势，相较于2010年和2015年，2021年我国绝大部分省市已进入了较安全级别，粮食安全水平达到了一个新的高度。（4）影响我国粮食安全的主要因素依次为：供给能力、绿色发展、经济效益、基础支撑、供给结构。二级指标影响因素排序依次为：道路运输密集度、单位耕地面积农药使用量、农用机械化水平、单位耕地面积化肥施用量。（5）对2010-2021年我国粮食供需进行预测，到2030年，我国人口规模预计将达到14.84亿人，粮食产量预计达到7.62亿吨，预计粮食需求量为7.42亿吨，盈余1992.15万吨粮食。

Food security is related to people's livelihood and is the cornerstone of ensuring the country's social stability, and plays a decisive role in whether the country can be self-reliant, whether the people can be self-reliant, whether the society can be stable, and whether the economy can develop. In recent years, with the intensification and evolution of the international situation and the grain market situation, China, as a member of the world grain market, is facing more prominent food security problems, only by solving the problem of food security, can the social economy achieve rapid and good development, China can be based on the domestic market, calmly face the complex and changeable international situation. Therefore, there is a long way to go to shoulder the important task of stabilizing national food security.

In this context, this paper firstly takes the new connotation of China's food security in the new development stage as the research orientation, constructs a food security evaluation system including 21 secondary indicators based on five levels: supply capacity, supply structure, green development, economic benefits and basic support, and analyzes the development status of China's food security. Secondly, the consistency test was used to determine the improved CRITIC weight method as the optimal index empowerment method, and then the CRITIC-TOPSIS evaluation model was used to comprehensively evaluate the food security status in China from 2010 to 2021. Finally, the obstacle degree analysis method is used to find out the main influencing factors affecting the development of food security, and the gray prediction model is further used to predict China's grain supply and demand in the next nine years.

The main conclusions of the study are as follows: (1) The improved CRITIC weight method is the optimal index empowerment method. (2) The CRITIC-TOPSIS evaluation model was used to evaluate food security, and from the perspective of time scale, the development of food security in China has gone through three stages, and the first stage is from 2010 to 2015, which has crossed from the unsafe level to the relatively safe level. The second phase was 2015-2016, when the food security level fell from relatively safe to critical. The period from 2016 to 2021 is the third stage, and the food security level will enter the ideal security level in 2021. The comprehensive score of each subsystem is ranked as follows: green development level, supply capacity level, economic benefit level, supply structure level, and basic support level. (3) From the perspective of spatial scale, China's food security level as a whole shows a development trend of "low in the south and high in the north", compared with 2010 and 2015, most provinces and cities in China have entered a relatively safe level in 2021, and the food security level has reached a new height. (4) The main factors affecting China's food security are supply capacity, green development, economic benefits, basic support, and supply structure. The influencing factors of the secondary indicators were ranked as follows: road transport intensity, pesticide use per unit cultivated area, agricultural mechanization level, and chemical fertilizer application per unit cultivated area. (5) According to the forecast of China's grain supply and demand from 2010 to 2021, by 2030, China's population is expected to reach 1.484 billion people, grain output is expected to reach 762 million tons, and the estimated grain demand is 742 million tons, with a surplus of 19.9215 million tons of grain.