统计与数据科学学院知识库

  当前，全球经济和政治格局正发生着复杂且深刻的变化，各国在经济和贸易领域的合作方式正在朝着经济集团化的方式发展。而全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定（CPTPP）被认为是当前全球最高标准的区域自由贸易协议。中国始终坚持高水平对外开放的理念，于2019年9月16日正式申请加入CPTPP。中国历来是传统的农业大国，CPTPP的实施将会对中国农产品的贸易规模产生影响。鉴于传统的贸易统计无法准确地反映一国贸易的真实情况，本文立足于增加值的视角，探究中国加入CPTPP对其农产品贸易的影响。本文分为三部分：第一，在梳理相关文献和贸易理论的基础上，对CPTPP成员国农产品降税特征进行了归纳，从定性的角度探究CPTPP农产品关税优惠规则对中国农产品贸易增加值的影响；第二，利用GTAP模型模拟了加入CPTPP后对中国宏观经济的影响；第三，将GTAP模型与KWW贸易分解模型相结合，探讨中国若加入CPTPP对其农产品的贸易增加值的影响。

   研究结果表明：（1）加入CPTPP不仅将会正向促进中国宏观经济，而且会显著地提高CPTPP各成员国的经济增长和社会福利。（2）加入CPTPP将会提升中国大部分农业部门的出口贸易增加值，但对中国小麦的国内增加值造成了冲击。（3）加入CPTPP后，中国同日本、越南、墨西哥和加拿大出口贸易增加值将会增加，与澳大利亚、新西兰、新加坡的农业全球价值链协作关系不断深化，而出口至智利和秘鲁的农产品贸易增加值在减少。（4）加入CPTPP后，中国与越南在蔬菜、水果及坚果、油料作物和植物油、植物纤维和其他农作物部门合作日趋紧密；中国对日本、墨西哥和加拿大的活动动物、肉类及肉制品以及加工食品的出口贸易增加值不断提高；中国对智利和秘鲁出口的加工食品的贸易增加值显著下降。最后，针对结论本文提出以下对策建议：（1）细化研究CPTPP规则，有序推进农业进一步开放；（2）坚定不移推进自贸区战略，维护中国农业的相关利益；（3）把握开放契机，提高农产品国际竞争力；（4）调整农产品贸易结构，增加农产品贸易增加值；（5）利用“一带一路”建设契机，加强与CPTPP国家合作。

   At present, the global economic and political landscape is undergoing complex and profound changes, and the way countries cooperate in the economic and trade fields is developing towards economic blocs. The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) is considered by academics as the highest standard of regional free trade agreement in the world. China has always adhered to the concept of high-level opening up, and formally applied to join CPTPP on September 16, 2019. China has always been a traditional agricultural power, and the implementation of CPTPP will have an impact on the trade scale of China's agricultural products. Since traditional trade statistics cannot accurately reflect the true situation of a country's trade, this paper explores the impact of China's participation in CPTPP on its agricultural trade from the perspective of value-added. This paper is divided into three parts: First, on the basis of combing relevant literature and trade theory, the characteristics of agricultural tax reduction in CPTPP member countries are summarized, and the impact of CPTPP agricultural tariff preferential rules on the value-added of China's agricultural trade is explored from a qualitative perspective. Second, the impact of joining CPTPP on China's macro economy is simulated using the GTAP model. Thirdly, the GTAP model and KWW trade decomposition model are combined to explore the impact of China's accession to the CPTPP on the trade value added of agricultural products.

     The results show that:(1) China's accession to the CPTPP will not only positively promote China's macro economy, but also significantly improve the economic growth and social welfare of CPTPP member countries.(2) China's accession to the CPTPP will increase the export value added of most agricultural sectors in China, but will have an impact on the domestic value added of wheat in China.(3) After China's accession to the CPTPP, the export value added of China with Japan, Vietnam, Mexico and Canada will increase, and the agricultural global value chain cooperation with Australia, New Zealand and Singapore will deepen, while the export value added of agricultural products to Chile and Peru will decrease.(4) After China's accession to the CPTPP, China and Vietnam will have increasingly close cooperation in vegetables, fruits and nuts, oilseeds and vegetable oils, plant fibers and other crops sectors;China's export value added of live animals, meat and meat products, and processed foods to Japan, Mexico and Canada will increase significantly;China's export value added of processed foods to Chile and Peru will decrease. Finally, this paper proposes the following countermeasures and suggestions for the conclusion: (1) detailed research on CPTPP rules, orderly promotion of further agricultural opening up. (2) unswervingly promote the free trade area strategy, safeguard the relevant interests of Chinese agriculture. (3) grasp the opening up opportunity, improve the international competitiveness of agricultural products. (4) adjust the trade structure of agricultural products, increase the value added of agricultural products. (5) take advantage of the "One Belt and One Road" construction opportunity, strengthen cooperation with CPTPP countries.