金融学院知识库

随着我国制定了“2030年实现碳达峰”和“2060年达成碳中和”的目标，绿色经济的理念逐渐被广泛接受。在此背景下，作为推动绿色经济的关键动力之一，绿色信贷的作用愈发凸显，获得了来自各方面的广泛关注。为了持续推进我国经济的健康发展，绿色金融的支持不可或缺。商业银行，在金融体系中占有重要地位，其作用显得尤为关键，它们被视为支持我国经济持续发展的重要力量。因此，近年来，我国不断加强对绿色金融的政策支持，商业银行也纷纷推出了多样化的绿色信贷产品。但是由于我国商业银行绿色信贷业务起步相比于其他国家较晚，绿色信贷经营经验不足，因此绿色信贷的对商业银行的风险影响需要更加深入的分析。

本文首先概述了研究的背景和国内外在该领域的主要研究成果，接下来文章阐述了绿色信贷以及商业银行流动性风险相关概念与理论基础。进一步，文章整理了我国绿色信贷与商业银行流动性风险发展概况和相关政策的进展，分析了绿色信贷对商业银行流动性风险的积极和消极影响。此基础上，本研究采用系统GMM模型分析了2012年至2022年30家具有不同股权结构的国内商业银行的数据，探讨了绿色信贷对流动性风险的影响，并通过稳健性检验增强了研究结果的可靠性。此外，研究通过对不同股权性质的银行进行分类分析，发现绿色信贷对流动性风险的影响存在异质性。最后通过运用bootstrap方法，将成本收入比作为中介变量，揭示了盈利能力在绿色信贷和流动性风险关系中的中介效应。

实证结果表明，短期内绿色信贷能够降低商业银行的流动性风险，但长期看可能会增加风险。同时，绿色信贷对于城市商业银行和农村商业银行流动性风险的影响相比于国有和股份制银行更为显著，盈利能力在绿色信贷对商业银行流动性风险的影响中起到了重要的中介作用。最后，根据分析过程和实证结果总结全文，并给出不同层面上的相关政策建议。

With China setting the goals of peaking carbon emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060, the concept of green economy has gradually been widely accepted. In this context, as a key driving force for promoting a green economy, the role of green credit has become increasingly prominent and has received widespread attention from all aspects. In order to promote the sustained and healthy development of China's economy, the support of green finance is indispensable. Commercial banks play an important role in the financial system, and their role is particularly crucial. They are seen as important forces supporting the sustained development of China's economy. Therefore, in recent years, the government has continuously strengthened policy support for green finance, and commercial banks have also launched diversified green credit products. However, due to the relatively late start of green credit business in commercial banks in China compared to other countries, there is insufficient experience in green credit operation. Therefore, the risk impact of green credit on commercial banks needs further consideration.

This article first outlines the background of the research and the main research achievements in this field at home and abroad. Next, the article elaborates on the concepts and theoretical foundations of green credit and commercial bank liquidity risk. Furthermore, the article summarizes the development overview of green credit and liquidity risk of commercial banks in China, as well as the progress of related policies, and analyzes the positive and negative impacts of green credit on liquidity risk of commercial banks. On this basis, this study used a systematic GMM model to analyze data from 30 domestic commercial banks with different equity structures from 2012 to 2022, explored the impact of green credit on liquidity risk, and confirmed the reliability of the research results through robustness testing. In addition, the study found heterogeneity in the impact of green credit on liquidity risk through classification analysis of banks with different equity properties. Finally, by using the bootstrap method and using the cost-income ratio as a mediator variable, the study also revealed the mediating effect of profitability in the relationship between green credit and liquidity risk.

The empirical results indicate that green credit can reduce the liquidity risk of commercial banks in the short term, but may increase the risk in the long term. Meanwhile, green credit is more significant for urban commercial banks and rural commercial banks compared to state-owned and joint-stock banks, and profitability plays an important intermediary role in it. Finally, based on the analysis process and empirical results, summarize the entire article and provide relevant policy recommendations at different levels.