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长期以来，中国区域经济发展不平衡不协调，其中的原因众多，而制造业发展不平衡是区域经济发展不平衡的最主要原因之一。时至今日，这种不平衡的绝对数差距依然较大。为了逐步实现区域经济协调发展，缓解不平衡和不协调，2010年以来，国家出台系列产业或制造业转移政策，特别是十四五规划出台以后，实现制造业的有序转移成为国家高质量发展的重要策略之一。由于实现制造业的有序转移是一个复杂的经济现象，需在顶层设计的基础上，得到社会各界积极支持。其中，金融支持不可或缺。目前，中国仍然是商业银行主导的金融结构，商业银行在经济发展过程中仍然是发挥金融支持作用的最主要金融机构。特别是，作为制造业转移承接地的中西部和东北地区，商业银行占主导的金融结构特征更加显著。显然，在承接制造业有序转移的过程中，从金融支持方面来讲，商业银行需要发挥主导作用。但是，商业银行是市场经济中的经营主体，支持制造业的有序转移，受到现有评价考核机制的约束，难以增加基于转移的贷款规模而实现有效支持。因此，研究改进现有评价考核机制，使商业银行能有效支持制造业的有序转移具有明确的目的性，也具有较强的现实意义和政策参考价值。本文围绕商业银行如何有效支持制造业转移主题并主要从以下四个方面进行分析和论证：

首先，本文从中国制造业转移的背景出发，进行相应的机理分析，梳理和分析了支持制造业转移的相关理论和国家的相关政策，并在此基础上提出本文的研究假设。分析结论表明，制造业转移需要金融机构的金融支持，而中国金融机构中，只有商业银行才能发挥最主要的金融支持作用。该部分也为银行支持制造业转移梳理出理论和政策依据。

其次，本文运用我国主要商业银行制造业贷款、制造业贷款不良率和利息收入相关数据以及地区制造业发展情况相关数据，基于“发展型国家”理论与金融理论，运用熵值法、向量自回归和面板向量自回归法对制造业转移现状和制造业贷款需求与供给进行分析。分析结论显示，中国制造业转移现状与转移战略目标存在较大差距，需要政府加强引导，更需要银行的支持。在制造业转移过程中，银行的支持具体表现为增加基于制造业转移的贷款规模。本文具体说明了制造业贷款与制造业发展之间的关系并根据实际数据和图表说明了制造业贷款供需失衡的现象，且运用VAR模型对制造业贷款额与制造业贷款需求指数之间的关系进行了实证，得出了一般性结论，即整体上现有的制造业贷款需求没有得到满足。在进一步的分析中，本文对中国制造业转移进行了测度，并在此基础上分析制造业转移与商业银行贷款之间的关系。分析结论显示，商业银行在支持制造业转移方面，存在地区异质性，西南地区和东北地区支持效果较显著，另两个地区效果差，说明该两地区基于制造业转移的贷款需求没有得到有效满足。显然，在现有制造业贷款需求没有得到有效满足的基础上，要求增加基于制造业转移的贷款规模无疑是有难度的。

再次，对商业银行增加制造业贷款约束因素进行分析。本文指出了商业银行与制造业转移企业在制造业贷款方面存在的现实矛盾，并分析了矛盾的主要方面，即一方面是银行制造业不良贷款率高，受现有贷款评价考核机制的约束，另一方面是制造业的转移又需要银行增加对制造业的贷款。同时分析了制造业不良贷款率高的四个主要原因。本文就回答该矛盾问题，选择30家上市商业银行作为研究样本，建立了PVAR模型进行实证分析。分析结论显示，商业银行增加制造业贷款并没有增加其不良贷款率，反而在增加其利息收入。此外，通过异质性检验，得出国有控股和股份制银行制造业贷款的增加相对城市商业银行和农村商业银行能够更加显著地降低其不良贷款率，前者在支持制造业转移方面更具有比较优势。另外还分析到，制造业有效转移能够促进承接地制造业发展，进而促进承接地经济发展，承接地经济发展又有利于银行降低不良贷款率。这种良性循环的实现是完全可能的。通过该部分的论证分析，为改进现有贷款评价考核机制提供了证据。

最后，在第二、三部分论证分析的基础上，论证和分析了改进来自财政部、央行和银行自身的基于增加制造业转移贷款的评价考核机制，分别提出了具体改进的内容，并且通过实证分析为改进的可行性提供了又一证据，即改进将可能会有好的政策效果。为了使改进后的贷款评价考核机制有效运行，效果显著，能有效促进银行支持制造业的转移，本文还在较充分论述的基础上，提出了建立制造业有序转移“白名单”机制、建立基于大数据的制造业转移贷款审批监督机制以及建立制造业转移承接地政府担保和贴息补偿机制作为改进银行贷款评价考核机制的有效补充机制。

For a long time, China's regional economic development has been imbalanced and uncoordinated, and there are many reasons for this. Among them, the imbalanced development of the manufacturing industry is one of the main reasons for the imbalanced regional economic development. To this day, the absolute difference in this imbalance is still significant. In order to gradually achieve coordinated development of regional economy, alleviate imbalance and disharmony, the country has introduced a series of industrial or manufacturing transfer policies since 2010, especially after the 14th Five Year Plan was issued, achieving orderly transfer of manufacturing has become one of the important strategies for high-quality development of the country. Due to the fact that achieving orderly transfer of manufacturing is a complex economic phenomenon, it requires active support from all sectors of society based on top-level design. Among them, financial support is indispensable. At present, China still has a financial structure dominated by commercial banks, and commercial banks are still the main financial institutions that play a role in financial support during the process of economic development. Especially in the central, western, and northeastern regions where manufacturing transfer is taking place, the financial structure dominated by commercial banks is more prominent. Obviously, in the process of undertaking the orderly transfer of manufacturing industry, commercial banks need to play a leading role in terms of financial support. However, commercial banks are the operating entities in the market economy, supporting the orderly transfer of the manufacturing industry and being constrained by existing evaluation and assessment mechanisms. Therefore, studying and improving the existing evaluation and assessment mechanism to enable commercial banks to effectively support the orderly transfer of the manufacturing industry has a clear purpose and strong practical significance and policy reference value. This article focuses on the theme of how commercial banks can effectively support the transfer of manufacturing industry, and mainly analyzes and argues from the following four aspects:

Firstly, starting from the background of the transfer of China's manufacturing industry, this article conducts corresponding mechanism analysis, sorts out and analyzes the relevant theories and national policies supporting the transfer of manufacturing industry, and based on this, proposes the research hypothesis of this article. The analysis conclusion indicates that the transfer of manufacturing industry requires financial support from financial institutions, and among Chinese financial institutions, only commercial banks can play the most important role in financial support. This section also provides theoretical and policy basis for banks to support the transfer of manufacturing industry.

Secondly, analyze the current situation of manufacturing transfer and the demand and supply of manufacturing loans. The analysis conclusion shows that there is a significant gap between the current situation of China's manufacturing industry transfer and the transfer strategic goals, which requires the government to strengthen guidance and more importantly, the support of banks. In the process of manufacturing industry transfer, bank support is specifically manifested in increasing the scale of loans based on manufacturing industry transfer. This article specifically explains the relationship between manufacturing loans and manufacturing development, and explains the phenomenon of imbalanced supply and demand of manufacturing loans based on actual data and charts. The VAR model is used to empirically study the relationship between manufacturing loan amount and manufacturing loan demand index, and a general conclusion is drawn that the existing demand for manufacturing loans is still not being met. In further analysis, this article measures the transfer of China's manufacturing industry and analyzes the relationship between manufacturing industry transfer and commercial bank loans based on this. The analysis conclusion shows that there is regional heterogeneity among commercial banks in supporting the transfer of manufacturing industry. The support effect is more significant in the southwest and northeast regions, while the other two regions have poor effects, indicating that the loan demand based on manufacturing industry transfer in these two regions has not been effectively met. Obviously, it is difficult to increase the scale of loans based on manufacturing transfer, as the existing demand for manufacturing loans has not been effectively met.

Thirdly, analyze the constraints on increasing manufacturing loans for commercial banks. This article points out the practical contradictions between commercial banks and manufacturing transfer enterprises in terms of manufacturing loans, and analyzes the main aspects of the contradictions. On the one hand, banks have a high non-performing loan rate in the manufacturing industry, which is constrained by the existing loan evaluation and assessment mechanism. On the other hand, the transfer of manufacturing industry requires banks to increase their loans to the manufacturing industry. At the same time, four main reasons for the high non-performing loan ratio in the manufacturing industry were analyzed. This article answers the contradictory question by selecting 30 listed commercial banks as research samples and establishing a PVAR model for empirical analysis. The analysis conclusion shows that increasing manufacturing loans by commercial banks does not increase their non-performing loan ratio, but rather increases their interest income. In addition, through heterogeneity testing, it was found that the increase in manufacturing loans from state-owned and joint-stock banks in China can significantly reduce their non-performing loan ratios compared to urban commercial banks and rural commercial banks. The former has a comparative advantage in supporting the transfer of manufacturing industries. In addition, it was analyzed that effective transfer of manufacturing can promote the development of manufacturing in the receiving area, thereby promoting the economic development of the receiving area. The economic development of the receiving area is also beneficial for banks to reduce non-performing loan ratios. The realization of this virtuous cycle is entirely possible. Through the argumentation and analysis in this section, evidence is provided to improve the existing loan evaluation and assessment mechanism.

Fourthly, based on the argumentation and analysis in the second and third parts, the evaluation and assessment mechanisms for increasing manufacturing transfer loans from the Ministry of Finance, the Central Bank, and banks themselves were demonstrated and analyzed. Specific improvements were proposed, and empirical analysis provided another evidence for the feasibility of the improvement, that is, the improvement may have good policy effects. In order to ensure the effective operation and significant effect of the improved loan evaluation and assessment mechanism, which can effectively promote the transfer of bank support for the manufacturing industry, this article also proposes the establishment of a "whitelist" mechanism for the orderly transfer of the manufacturing industry based on a more comprehensive discussion Establish a big data based supervision mechanism for the approval of manufacturing transfer loans, as well as a government guarantee and interest subsidy compensation mechanism for manufacturing transfer recipients, as effective supplementary mechanisms for improving the evaluation and assessment mechanism of bank loans.