统计与数据科学学院知识库

      新型城镇化与乡村振兴战略是城乡发展的核心支柱，协调推动两大战略发展，是提升我国新型城镇化质量、促进农村农业发展，实现城乡融合的必然选择。甘肃省作为欠发达省份，经济发展相对落后，协调发展程度的优劣甚至直接关系到我国城乡发展的进程，因此研究两者之间的协调发展水平，具有重要的意义。
      首先，本文通过构建指标体系对甘肃省14个市州新型城镇化与乡村振兴发展水平进行了测度；其次，运用耦合协调模型、相对发展模型对14个市州新型城镇化与乡村振兴发展水平进行测算分析，并使用 软件对时空分布特征进行可视化处理；然后，运用空间数据分析模型和GeoDa软件对发展水平的空间集聚特征进行了探究；最后，运用灰色关联模型对两系统和耦合协调度的关联性进行分析，并运用缓冲算子GM(1,1)模型对2022-2024年甘肃省14个市州两系统的发展水平和耦合协调水平进行预测，得出相关结论。
      研究结果表明：（1）2012-2021年间，甘肃省14个市州新型城镇化与乡村振兴发展水平波动上升，变动趋势明显；2012-2018年新型城镇化发展优于乡村振兴发展，2019-2021年乡村振兴发展优于新型城镇化发展。（2）甘肃省14个市州的耦合协调水平显著提升，到2021年，嘉峪关市和金昌市协调类型为初级协调，勉强协调市州达到3个，濒临失调市州为9个；耦合协调值差异较大，河西地区耦合协调度较高，南部民族地区耦合协调度较低，地区间存在明显的差异。（3）空间数据分析模型显示，乡村振兴发展存在明显的空间正相关，耦合协调发展空间相关性逐年减弱直至消失，新型城镇化发展不存在空间相关性；乡村振兴发展空间格局呈现明显的“高-高”和“低-低”集聚状态，前者分布在河西地区，后者分散在其他三个地区，市州地理空间集聚明显。（4）灰色关联分析显示，不同地区灰色关联的影响因素各不相同，因地各异；缓冲算子 模型显示，2022-2024年间协调水平稳定提升，协调等级保持不变，2024年濒临失调城市7个，勉强协调城市6个，初级协调城市1个，耦合协调度逐年上升。
     最后结合研究结论提出推进新型城镇化区域发展进程，增加乡村从业人员比重，市州间协调推进耦合性发展和促进城乡之间要素流动等对策建议。

       New urbanization and rural revitalization strategy are the core pillars of urban and rural development, and coordinating the development of the two strategies is an inevitable choice to improve the quality of new urbanization in China, promote rural agricultural development, and achieve urban-rural integration. As an underdeveloped province, Gansu province is relatively backward in economic development. The quality of coordinated development even directly relates to the process of urban and rural development. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the level of coordinated development between the two.
    Firstly, this thesis measures the new urbanization and rural revitalization development level of 14 cities and prefectures in Gansu Province by constructing an indicator system. Secondly, the coupling coordination model and relative development model were used to calculate and analyze the development level of new-type urbanization and rural revitalization in 14 cities and states, and the GeoDa software was used to visualize the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics. Then, spatial data analysis model and  software are used to explore the spatial agglomeration characteristics of development level. Finally, the correlation between the two systems and the coupling coordination degree was analyzed by using the grey correlation model, and the buffer operator GM(1,1) model was used to predict the development level and coupling coordination level of the two systems in 14 cities and states in Gansu Province from 2022 to 2024, and relevant conclusions were drawn.
    The research results indicate that: (1) from 2012 to 2021, the level of new urbanization and rural revitalization development in 14 cities and prefectures in Gansu Province fluctuated and increased, with a clear trend of change; from 2012 to 2018, the development of new urbanization was better than that of rural revitalization, and from 2019 to 2021, the development of rural revitalization was better than that of new urbanization. (2) The coupling coordination level of 14 cities and prefectures in Gansu Province has significantly improved. By 2021, the coordination type between Jiayuguan City and Jinchang City will be primary coordination, with 3 barely coordinated cities and prefectures and 9 on the brink of imbalance; there are significant differences in coupling coordination values, with a higher coupling coordination degree in the Hexi region and a lower coupling coordination degree in the southern ethnic areas, indicating significant regional differences. (3) The spatial data analysis model shows that there is a significant spatial positive correlation in the development of rural revitalization, and the spatial correlation of coupled and coordinated development weakens year by year until it disappears. There is no spatial correlation in the development of new urbanization; the spatial pattern of rural revitalization and development presents a clear pattern of "high-high" and "low-low" clustering, with the former distributed in the Hexi region and the latter scattered in the other three regions. The geographical spatial clustering of cities and prefectures is obvious. (4) Grey correlation analysis shows that the influencing factors of grey correlation vary in different regions and regions; the buffer operator   model shows that the coordination level has steadily improved from 2022 to 2024, while the coordination level remains unchanged. In 2024, there are 7 cities on the brink of imbalance, 6 cities barely coordinated, and 1 primary coordinated city. The coupling coordination degree has been increasing year by year. 

       Finally, based on the research findings, suggestions are proposed to promote the development of new urbanization regions, increase the proportion of rural employees, coordinate and promote coupling development between cities and states, and promote factor flow between urban and rural areas.