金融学院知识库

2020年9月，习总书记在第七十五界联合国大会上提出中国二氧化碳排放要力争在2030年前达到峰值，在2060年前实现碳中和。2022年6月，农业农村部、国家发改委联合印发的《农业农村减排固碳实施方案》中明确提到要围绕种植业节能减排、农机节能减排等6项重要任务以及实施化肥减量增效、科技创新支撑、可再生能源替代等10大重要行动，说明控制农业碳排放已势在必行。目前，已有学者表明，农业保险除了具有稳定生产、保障收入的作用之外，还能影响农业生产中温室气体的排放。一些学者认为，参与农业保险的农户会在农业生产过程中改变化肥、农药等生产资料的投入情况以及农业技术方面的应用，进而影响农业碳排放量。

本文总结吸纳国内外学者的研究成果，基于2010年-2021年全国30个省市自治区（不包括西藏自治区和港澳台地区）的农业保险与农业碳排放相关数据，建立双向固定效应模型和中介效应模型，并将农村人力资本作为调节变量，对农业保险的碳减排效果以及调节效应进行实证检验，试图找到农业保险的直接效应与间接效应、找到农业保险可以通过何种路径来减少农业碳排放。最后，通过实证结果总结研究结论，并根据农业保险发展现状和农业碳排放现状提出几点建议。

研究结果表明：农业保险对农业碳排放确实有显著影响。农业保险发展水平的提高可以显著减少农业种植方面的碳排放量，农业保险密度和农业保险覆盖广度每增加1%，农业碳排放就会分别减少0.0161%和0.0779%；农村人力资本的存在可以放大农业保险的碳减排作用，并且农村人力资本本身也会有效减少农业碳排放量；农业保险在中部地区碳减排作用效果最大，东部地区和西部地区次之，而在东北地区显著性较差；农业保险可以通过农业种植结构和农业技术进步这两条路径来影响农业碳排放。

最后，本文给出以下几点建议：第一、坚持贯彻实施农业保险的相关政策，逐步扩大农业保险的覆盖品种及覆盖范围，使农业保险真正实现“高覆盖、高保障”；第二、要切实提高农村人力资本水平，加强对农村、农民等与农业生产相关的人员的教育培养；第三、要因地制宜发展农业保险；第四、加强农业保险政策与环境保护政策的配合程度，引导政府支农力度向节能环保方向靠近；第五、要加大对农业生产方面高新技术的资金投入力度，鼓励高科技公司研发农业高新技术，发展新质生产力，同时需要创新推广绿色农业保险产品。

In September 2020, at the 75th United Nations General Assembly, Chinese leaders proposed that China's carbon dioxide emissions should peak before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.In June 2022, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the Implementation Plan for Emission Reduction and Carbon Sequestration in Agriculture and Rural Areas, which clearly mentioned six important tasks, such as energy conservation and emission reduction in planting industry and agricultural machinery, and 10 important actions, such as reducing the amount of chemical fertilizer and increasing its efficiency, scientific and technological innovation support, and renewable energy substitution. This shows that it is imperative to control agricultural carbon emissions.Currently, scholars have shown that agricultural insurance, in addition to stabilizing production and ensuring income, can also affect greenhouse gas emissions in agricultural production. Some scholars believe that farmers participating in agricultural insurance will change the input of fertilizers, pesticides and other means of production and the application of agricultural technologies in the process of agricultural production, and then affect agricultural carbon emissions.

Based on the relevant data of agricultural insurance and agricultural carbon emissions in 30 provinces, cities and autonomous regions (excluding Tibet Autonomous Region and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) from 2010 to 2021, this paper summarizes the research achievements of domestic and foreign scholars, establishes a two-way fixed effect model and an intermediary effect model, and takes rural human capital as a moderating variable. This paper empirically tests the carbon emission reduction effect and regulatory effect of agricultural insurance, tries to find the direct and indirect effects of agricultural insurance, and finds the path through which agricultural insurance can reduce agricultural carbon emissions. Finally, this paper summarizes the research conclusions through the empirical results, and puts forward some suggestions according to the current situation of agricultural insurance development and agricultural carbon emission.

The results show that agricultural insurance has a significant impact on agricultural carbon emissions. The improvement of the development level of agricultural insurance can significantly reduce the carbon emissions of agricultural planting. If the density of agricultural insurance and the coverage breadth of agricultural insurance increase by 1%, the agricultural carbon emissions will decrease by 0.0161% and 0.0779%, respectively. The existence of rural human capital can amplify the carbon emission reduction effect of agricultural insurance, and rural human capital itself can effectively reduce agricultural carbon emissions. The effect of agricultural insurance on carbon emission reduction was the largest in the central region, followed by the eastern region and the western region, and was less significant in the northeast region. Agricultural insurance can affect agricultural carbon emissions through two paths: agricultural planting structure and agricultural technology progress.

Finally, this paper gives the following suggestions: First, adhere to the implementation of the relevant policies of agricultural insurance, and gradually expand the covered varieties and coverage scope of agricultural insurance, so that agricultural insurance can truly achieve "high coverage and high security"; Second, it is necessary to effectively improve the level of rural human capital, and strengthen the education and training of rural, farmers and other personnel related to agricultural production; Third, we should develop agricultural insurance according to local conditions; Fourth, strengthen the degree of cooperation between agricultural insurance policies and environmental protection policies, and guide the government's efforts to support agriculture to the direction of energy conservation and environmental protection; Fifth, it is necessary to increase the capital investment in high-tech agricultural production, encourage high-tech companies to research and develop agricultural high-tech, develop new quality productivity, and innovate and promote green agricultural insurance products.