金融学院知识库

   制造业作为大国经济的“稳定器”，我国制造业在全球范围内展现出规模宏大、门类齐全、体系完善以及较强的国际竞争力等显著优势。然而，经过多年的高速发展，我国制造业也暴露出一些问题，如“规模庞大但实力不足”、“门类齐全但精度不够”，这些问题表现为低端产能过剩、高端供给不足，产业基础薄弱，创新能力有待提升等诸多方面。同时，随着资源约束日益紧张，原有优势逐渐丧失，我们需要借助政策性的绿色金融支持，特别是绿色信贷政策，来重塑制造业的竞争优势。在此背景下，深入探究绿色信贷如何促进制造业高质量发展的内在机制，对于我国制造业抓住发展机遇，推动中国经济实现高质量发展具有至关重要的意义。

   本文阐述了绿色信贷和制造业高质量发展的定义和理论基础，并分析其影响机制、提出研究假设，介绍了绿色信贷和制造业发展现状。选取 30 个省份及直辖市（除港澳台、西藏）的数据进行回归分析，并以绿色技术创新水平和环境规制作为门槛变量进行门槛效应研究。研究结论指出：（1）绿色信贷对于制造业的高质量发展具备直观的推动力，并带来了积极的促进效应。这种金融模式可以鼓励制造业企业在环境保护、新能源等先进科技行业的运作，也可以指导社会资金的流动趋势，将其由中低端行业转移至高科技行业，推动制造业行业链发展；（2）各个地区的样本回归数据存在较大的差别，实证结果表明，各个地区的绿色信贷水平可以给制造业的高质量发展带来不同程度的促进效应，中部地区的促进作用最强且大于东部地区，西部地区的促进作用目前还不明显；（3）绿色技术创新水平和环境规制对制造业企业高质量发展存在非线性特征门槛，只有绿色技术创新水平和环境规制两个门槛变量分别保持在合理区间，绿色信贷才能最大化促进制造业高质量发展。

   最后，根据以上结论，本文提出四点建议：（1）继续积极发展绿色信贷政策；（2）政府扶持，建立健全政府考核机制；（3）持续提升制造业金融服务质效；（4）推动各区域制造业高质量发展水平均衡发展。

  As the "stabilizer" of a big economy, China's manufacturing industry has shown significant advantages in the global scope, such as large scale, complete categories, perfect system and strong international competitiveness.However, after years of rapid development, China's manufacturing industry has also exposed some problems, such as "large scale but insufficient strength" and "complete categories but insufficient precision", which are manifested in low-end overcapacity, high-end supply shortage, weak industrial foundation, innovation ability to be improved and many other aspects.At the same time, with the increasingly tight resource constraints, the original advantages are gradually lost, we need to use policy-based green financial support, especially green credit policies, to reshape the competitive advantages of the manufacturing industry.In this context, it is of vital importance to explore the internal mechanism of how green credit promotes the high-quality development of the manufacturing industry to seize the development opportunities of China's manufacturing industry and promote the high-quality development of China's economy.   

   This paper expounds the definition and theoretical basis of green credit and high-quality development of manufacturing industry, analyzes its influencing mechanism, puts forward research hypotheses, and introduces the development status of green credit and manufacturing industry. This paper selects the data of 30 provinces and municipalities directly under the Central Government (except Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and Tibet) for regression analysis, and studies the threshold effect with green technology innovation level and environmental regulation as threshold variables. The research conclusions are as follows: (1)Green credit has intuitive impetus for the high-quality development of manufacturing industry and brings positive promotion effect. This financial model can encourage manufacturing enterprises to operate in advanced technology industries such as environmental protection and new energy, and can also guide the flow trend of social funds, transferring them from low-end industries to high-tech industries, and promoting the development of manufacturing industry chain; (2) There are great differences in the sample regression data of various regions. The empirical results show that the green credit level of various regions can bring different degrees of promotion effect to the high-quality development of manufacturing industry. The promotion effect of central region is stronger and greater than that of eastern region, and the promotion effect of western region is not obvious at present; (3) There are nonlinear characteristic thresholds of green technology innovation level and environmental regulation for the high-quality development of manufacturing enterprises. Only when the two threshold variables of green technology innovation level and environmental regulation are kept in a reasonable range, can green credit maximize the promotion of high-quality development of manufacturing industry.  

    Finally, based on the above conclusions, this paper puts forward four

suggestions: (1) continue to actively develop green credit policies; (2) government support, establish and improve the government assessment mechanism; (3) continuously improve the quality and efficiency of financial services for manufacturing; (4) promote the balanced development of high-quality development of manufacturing in various regions.