国际经济与贸易学院知识库

   随着经济全球化的发展，世界处于百年未有之大变局，在此世界局势下，贸易保护主义以及单边主义的抬头阻碍了世界各国的经济交流，海关效率、制度环境等贸易“非效率”因素对各国贸易的影响越来越受到世界的重视。在此基础上，学者们做出了相关研究，认为提高双边贸易便利化程度能够促进双方经济交流。机电产品作为中国制造业中数量、品种均占据大头的产品，也逐渐成为东盟国家需求日益提高的主要产品之一。第一，尽管出口贸易呈现不断上升的趋势，但也存在着增速减缓、国别结构以及产品结构失衡等诸多问题，而根据经验所知，该类产品受贸易“非效率”等因素的影响较大，因此本文基于东盟国家的面板数据，制定了贸易便利化水平评价体系，并以此为主要研究因素，分析了中国机电产品向东盟的出口流量以及贸易潜力，以此为开发中国向东盟地区的机电产品贸易潜力、加强与东盟地区的合作交流提供政策依据。

   本文采用对比分析法、主成分分析法、实证研究等方法，在梳理完相关文献后，综合评估了中国向东盟出口机电产品的现状。这一过程中，首先通过广泛的文献回顾，对中国对东盟地区的出口在贸易规模、国别结构和产品结构等方面进行了细致分析。接着，构建了一个评估贸易便利化的框架，该框架由四个主要指标及其下属的十七个次级指标构成，并运用stata软件和主成分分析法测算出东盟各个国家的贸易便利化得分，最后通过构建随机前沿模型以及贸易非效率模型进行实证研究，计算出贸易潜力系数、出口提升幅度，分析贸易便利化对中国出口东盟机电产品贸易潜力的影响并提出相关的政策建议。

   通过对贸易数据的分析，研究发现：一是贸易便利化对中国出口东盟地区的机电产品贸易潜力产生了积极影响。贸易便利化降低了贸易壁垒，使得中国机电产品更容易进入东盟市场。二是加快了贸易流程，缩短了交货时间，提升了交易效率。三是贸易便利化的政策支持促使中国企业增加对东盟市场的投资和生产，进一步增加了机电产品的出口量。这些因素共同推动了中国出口东盟机电产品的贸易潜力。本研究的结果可为中国政府和企业制定相关政策和战略提供参考。

  With the development of economic globalization，the world is undergoing profound changes unseen in a century. In this world situation，the rise of trade protectionism and unilateralism has hindered the economic exchanges among countries around the world. The influence of "non-efficiency" factors such as customs efficiency and institutional environment on the trade of countries has attracted more and more attention from the world. On this basis，scholars have made relevant studies and believe that improving the degree of bilateraltrade facilitation can promote economic exchanges between the two sides. As a region with good development momentum in recentyears.the ASEAN region occupies a very important economic position in Southeast Asia. China is the largest economy in Asia，and the cooperation and exchanges with the ASEAN region are getting closer and closer. Mechanical and electrical products，as the largest number and variety of products in China's manufacturing industry，have gradually become one of the main products with increasing demand inASEAN countries. However，despite the rising trend of export trade，there are also many problems such as slowing down of growth rate，imbalance of country structure and product structure，etc.According to experience，such products are greatly affected by factors such as "non-efficiency" of trade. Therefore，based on the panel data of ASEAN countries，this paper formulated the evaluation system of trade facilitation level and took it as the main research factor. Thispaper analyzes the export flow and trade potential of China's mechanical and electrical products to ASEAN，and provides policy basis for developing the trade potential of China's mechanical and electrical products to ASEAN and strengthening cooperation and exchangeswith ASEAN.

     In this paper，comparative analysis，principal component analysis， empirical research and other methods are used to analyze the current situation of China's export of mechanical and electrical products to ASEAN from the perspective of trade scale，country structureand product structure after combing relevant literature. Then，a tradefacilitation evaluation system is established， including four first-level indicators and seventeen second-level indicators. Using stata software and principal component analysis method，trade facilitation scores of ASEAN countries were calculated. Finally，empirical research was carried out by building immediate frontier model and trade inefficiency model to calculate trade potential coefficient and export increase margin，analyze the impact of trade facilitation on the trade potential of China's export of mechanical and electrical products to ASEAN，and put forward relevant policy suggestions.

     Through the analysis of trade data，the study found that trade facilitation has a positive impact on the trade potential of electromechanical products exported from China to the ASEAN region. First， trade facilitation reduces trade barriers and makes it easier for Chinese mechanical and electrical products to enter the ASEAN market. Secondly，trade facilitation speeds up trade processes，shortens delivery times and improves transaction efficiency. Finally，policy support for trade facilitation has encouraged Chinese enterprises to increase investment and production in the ASEAN market，further increasing the export volume of mechanical and electrical products. These factors together promote the trade potential of China's export of mechanical and electrical products to ASEAN. The results of this studycan provide reference for Chinese government and enterprises to formulate relevant policies and strategies. By further promoting trade facilitation and strengthening trade relations with the ASEAN region，China can further explore the ASEAN market，increase the export scale of mechanical and electrical products，and achieve sustainable growth in economic development.