金融学院知识库

近年来，我国经济增速出现了放缓的趋势，同时宏观杠杆率却持续攀升。在短期内，加杠杆能够有效激发投资与消费活力，从而加速经济发展进程。然而，高杠杆率不仅可能降低经济运行的整体质量和效率，造成债务不断累积，增加金融风险，甚至最终可能演变为债务危机，阻碍经济增长。目前，政府更加注重“保持宏观杠杆率基本稳定”与“稳中有降”的目标导向，旨在实现经济稳定增长的同时，有效遏制宏观杠杆率过快上升的趋势，从而确保经济运行的稳健与可持续。当前对于宏观杠杆率可持续性的研究，鲜有从结构性的视角深入探讨杠杆率问题，也缺乏综合多个部门对其可持续性及溢出效应的全面研究。

本文采用TVP-VAR模型进行实证研究，不仅从经济增长的视角实证探究了宏观杠杆率的可持续性。而且，针对潜在风险层面，深入剖析了各部门杠杆率的现状，揭示了其内在特点和潜在问题。在此基础上，本文进一步聚焦于杠杆率变动在五部门间的溢出效应，通过实证研究，详细探讨了各部门间杠杆率的相互影响及其对经济系统的整体影响，并在研究溢出效应时创新性将地方和中央政府杠杆率分开讨论。研究结果显示，我国宏观杠杆率长期快速增加会使我国的资产价格产生波动，从而对金融系统的稳定性产生影响，最后影响到我国的经济增长。目前看来，居民、企业和政府部门的杠杆水平依然对经济增长有正向推动作用，具有较强可持续性。相比之下，金融部门杠杆的提升对产出的影响为负且会对资产价格波动会产生较大影响，可持续性较弱。此外，金融部门和非金融企业部门杠杆的提升将显著推动全社会杠杆率的攀升，中央和地方政府杠杆率的提升会挤出其他部门的杠杆率，即政府部门杠杆的增加可能会限制其他部门的融资空间。同时，居民部门的杠杆同样能在一定程度上分担非金融企业和地方政府部门过剩的杠杆压力。在短期内，地方政府杠杆率和中央政府杠杆率的增加会对彼此产生挤出效应。

因此，为了维护经济稳定与健康发展，当前我国应首要聚焦金融部门杠杆的调控，致力于减少资金在金融体系中的无效流转与套利活动。与此同时，还需确保政府部门、居民部门和非金融企业部门这三大部门的杠杆率总量维持相对稳定，从而推动经济结构的优化与风险的合理管控，特别要重点关注地方政府杠杆率，将其控制在合理水平，以维护宏观金融稳定。

In recent years, China's economic growth has slowed down, while the macro leverage ratio has continued to climb. In the short term, increasing leverage can effectively stimulate investment and consumption vitality, thus accelerating the process of economic development. However, high leverage ratio may not only reduce the overall quality and efficiency of economic operation, cause continuous debt accumulation and increase financial risks, but may even eventually evolve into a debt crisis and hinder economic growth. At present, the government pays more attention to the goal orientation of "maintaining the basic stability of macro leverage ratio" and "decreasing while maintaining stability," aiming to achieve stable economic growth while effectively curbing the trend of excessively rapid rise of macro leverage ratio, so as to ensure the stability and sustainability of economic operation. At present, there is little research on the sustainability of macro leverage ratio from a structural perspective, and there is also a lack of comprehensive research on the sustainability and spillover effects of multiple sectors.

This paper uses the TVP-VAR model for empirical research, which not only empirically explores the sustainability of macro leverage ratio from the perspective of economic growth. Moreover, in view of the potential risk level, this paper deeply analyzes the current situation of the leverage ratio of each department, and reveals its internal characteristics and potential problems. On this basis, this paper further focuses on the spillover effect of leverage ratio changes among the five sectors, explores the mutual influence of leverage ratio among sectors and its overall impact on the economic system through empirical research, and creatively discusses the leverage ratio of local and central governments separately when studying the spillover effect. The results show that the long-term and rapid increase of China's macro leverage ratio will cause the volatility of China's asset prices, which will affect the stability of the financial system and ultimately affect China's economic growth. At present, the leverage level of residents, enterprises and government departments still plays a positive role in promoting economic growth, which is relatively sustainable. In contrast, the increase in financial sector leverage has a negative impact on output and a large impact on asset price fluctuations, which is less sustainable. In addition, the increase in the leverage of the financial sector and the non-financial corporate sector will significantly promote the increase in the leverage ratio of the whole society, and the increase in the leverage ratio of the central and local governments will crowd out the leverage ratio of other sectors, that is, the increase in the leverage of the government sector may limit the financing space of other sectors. At the same time, the leverage of the residential sector can also share the excess leverage pressure of non-financial enterprises and local government sectors to a certain extent. In the short run, increases in local government leverage and central government leverage have crowding-out effects on each other.

Therefore, in order to maintain the stability and healthy development of the economy, China should focus on the regulation of leverage in the financial sector, and devote to reducing the ineffective circulation and arbitrage activities in the financial system. At the same time, it is also necessary to ensure that the total leverage ratio of the government sector, the residential sector and the non-financial enterprise sector remains relatively stable, so as to promote the optimization of the economic structure and the reasonable control of risks.