经济学院知识库

        2023年新冠疫情虽已结束，但我国就业压力依然较大，结构性失业问题严峻。我国自2013年提出适时适当降低社会保险费率开始，先后5次降低或阶段性降低社保费率，其中城镇职工基本养老保险费率降幅较大，单位缴费比例从20%降至16%，为企业提供了更多的利润空间。城镇职工基本养老保险费率对于劳动力需求方——企业来说是一种用工成本，对于劳动力供给方——劳动者来说却是一种预期福利，这就导致降低城镇职工基本养老保险费率将在一定程度上影响城镇就业水平。因此，研究城镇职工基本养老保险费率下调对城镇就业的总体影响对于提高城镇就业水平有重要意义。

        本文通过构建联立方程模型，从劳动力供求综合角度研究城镇职工基本养老保险费率下调对城镇就业的影响，明确揭示出下调城镇职工基本养老保险费率对城镇就业的正向影响，并通过构建因子测算模型测算出未来我国城镇职工基本养老保险最优费率，有助于国家把握好政策力度，适时适当调整城镇职工基本养老保险费率，提振企业劳动力需求，缓解城镇就业压力，促进经济增长。

      Although the COVID-19 epidemic has ended in 2023, China's employment pressure is still large, and the structural unemployment problem is severe. Since 2013, China proposed a timely and appropriate reduction of social insurance rates, has reduced or phased reduction of social security rates for five times, of which the basic pension insurance rate of urban workers has dropped significantly, and the unit contribution ratio has dropped from 20% to 16%, providing more profit space for enterprises. The premium rate of the basic pension insurance for urban employees is a kind of labor cost for the labor demand-enterprise, but an expected benefit for the labor supplier-which leads to the fact that the reduction of the premium rate of the basic pension insurance for urban employees will affect the urban employment level to some extent. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the overall impact of the reduction of the basic pension insurance rate for urban workers on urban employment.

         By constructing a simultaneous equation model, this paper studies the impact of the reduction of the basic pension insurance premium rate for urban workers on urban employment from the comprehensive perspective of labor supply and demand, clearly showing the positive impact of the reduction of the basic pension insurance premium rate for urban workers on urban employment, and calculates the optimal rate of the basic pension insurance for urban workers in China through the construction of a factor measurement model, which will help the country to grasp the government We will make timely and appropriate adjustments to the rates of basic old-age insurance for urban workers, boost the demand for labor by enterprises, ease the pressure on urban employment, and promote economic growth.