地缘政治风险对中国农产品出口贸易的影响研究

作者	邵心玮
姓名汉语拼音	Shao Xinwei
学号	2021000002005
培养单位	兰州财经大学
电话	18893483774
电子邮件	1014235146@qq.com
入学年份	2021-9
学位类别	学术硕士
培养级别	硕士研究生
学科门类	经济学
一级学科名称	理论经济学
学科方向	世界经济
学科代码	020105
第一导师姓名	张璐
第一导师姓名汉语拼音	Zhang Lu
第一导师单位	兰州财经大学
第一导师职称	教授
题名	地缘政治风险对中国农产品出口贸易的影响研究
英文题名	The Impact of Geopolitical Risks on China's Agricultural Export Trade
关键词	地缘政治风险农产品出口贸易贸易引力模型
外文关键词	Geopolitical risks ; Agricultural export trade ; Trade gravity model
摘要	随着四十余年改革开放的持续推进，中国农业贸易逐渐对外敞开大门，与全球市场的联系日益紧密。据商务部对外贸易司公布的数据显示，中国农产品出口规模不断扩大，农产品出口额呈现稳步增长的态势。开展农产品贸易有益于我国平衡供需，发挥农产品比较优势，优化国内资源配置，推动农业的转型升级等，是国家稳定发展的重要支柱。但当前全球政治经济格局复杂演变，地缘冲突不断，中国农产品出口贸易面临较大不确定性。在此背景下，深入挖掘地缘政治风险对我国农产品出口贸易的影响，既有利于提高我国农产品在全球市场中的竞争力和抗风险能力，促进农产品贸易高质量发展，又有助于农产品出口企业科学准确地预测和评估潜在贸易风险，从而制定出更加合理的出口策略。本文首先对当前主要国家（地区）的地缘政治风险和我国农产品出口贸易的现状进行分析，结合国际贸易的相关理论，分析归纳了地缘政治风险影响中国农产品出口贸易的理论基础和内在机制。其次，选取 23 个主要农产品贸易国家2000-2022 年的面板数据，建立双向固定效应模型实证检验地缘政治风险对中国农产品出口贸易的影响。接着，通过更换解释变量与被解释变量、剔除极端年份数据的方式进行稳健性检验以提高研究结论的可信度；从风险水平、收入水平两个方面对样本国家展开异质性讨论。最后，在基准回归基础上，选择制度质量、制度距离、农产品贸易成本、双边政治关系检验地缘政治风险影响中国农产品出口贸易的具体机制。根据理论和实证结果，本文得出以下结论：第一，贸易伙伴地缘政治风险升高对中国农产品的出口贸易有显著的负面影响。第二，贸易伙伴地缘政治风险对中国农产品出口贸易的影响在贸易伙伴风险水平与收入水平特征上具有异质性。第三，地缘政治风险通过影响贸易伙伴的制度质量和中国与该伙伴的制度距离进而对农产品出口贸易产生抑制作用。第四，地缘政治风险通过影响两国（地区）农产品贸易成本与双边政治关系对中国农产品出口贸易产生冲击。据此，本文的研究结论对于我国科学防范全球地缘政治形势变动对经济的潜在冲击、确保农产品出口贸易的稳健发展以及促进经济的高质量增长具有一定的价值。
英文摘要	With the continuous advancement of reform and opening-up for over forty years, China's agricultural trade has gradually opened its doors to the outside world, leading to increasingly closer ties with global markets. According to data released by the Ministry of Commerce's Foreign Trade Department, the scale of China's agricultural product exports continues to expand, showing a steady growth trend in export volume. Engaging in agricultural product trade is beneficial for balancing supply and demand in China, leveraging comparative advantages in agricultural products, optimizing domestic resource allocation, and promoting the transformation and upgrading of agriculture. It is an important pillar for the stable development of the country. However, in the current complex and evolving global political and economic landscape, international environments are turbulent, and geopolitical conflicts are ongoing, leading to significant uncertainties for China's agricultural product export trade. Against the backdrop of unprecedented changes in a century, this article delves deep into the impact of geopolitical risks on China's agricultural product export trade. This not only enhances the competitiveness and risk resistance of China's agricultural products in the global market, but also contributes to the high-quality development of China's agricultural product export trade. Additionally, this not only assists agricultural export enterprises in scientifically and accurately predicting and assessing potential trade risks, thereby formulating more reasonable export strategies. This paper begins by analyzing the current geopolitical risks in major countries and the status of China's agricultural product export trade. Combining relevant theories of international trade, it analyzes and summarizes the theoretical foundations and internal mechanisms by which geopolitical risks affect China's agricultural product exports.Subsequently, panel data from 23 major agricultural product trading countries from 2000 to 2022 were selected to empirically test the impact of geopolitical risks on China's agricultural product export trade using a two-way fixed effects model. The study then conducts robustness tests by swapping the independent and dependent variables, removing data from extreme years to enhance the credibility of the research conclusions. The paper also discusses heterogeneity in the sample countries in terms of risk levels and income levels. Finally, building on the baseline regression, it examines specific mechanisms through which geopolitical risks affect China's agricultural product export trade by considering institutional quality, institutional distance, agricultural trade costs, and bilateral political relations. Based on theoretical and empirical results, this paper lead to the following conclusions: First, the increase in geopolitical risks among trading partners significantly negatively affects China's agricultural product export trade. Second, the impact of geopolitical risks among trading partners on China's agricultural product export trade exhibits heterogeneity based on country risk levels and income levels. Third, geopolitical risks inhibit agricultural product export trade from China by influencing the institutional quality of trading countries and the institutional distance between China and these countries. Fourth, geopolitical risks impact China's agricultural product export trade by affecting trade costs between the two countries and political relations between nations. Based on this, the research conclusions of this article are self-evident in scientifically preventing global geopolitical changes from impacting the economy, ensuring the stability of agricultural product export trade, and promoting high-quality economic development.
学位类型	硕士
答辩日期	2024-05
学位授予地点	甘肃省兰州市
语种	中文
论文总页数	73
参考文献总数	70
馆藏号	0005539
保密级别	公开
中图分类号	F11-0/65
文献类型	学位论文
条目标识符	http://ir.lzufe.edu.cn/handle/39EH0E1M/36568
专题	国际经济与贸易学院
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	邵心玮. 地缘政治风险对中国农产品出口贸易的影响研究[D]. 甘肃省兰州市. 兰州财经大学,2024.

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