经济学院知识库

我国早在 2000 年就已经步入了老龄化社会，预计到 2025 年进入中度老龄化社会，并有着向深度老龄化社会发展的趋势。在现有的退休年龄标准下，当年我国“婴儿潮”一代现在转变成“退休潮”，随着人口老龄化进程的不断加快，致使领取养老金的退休职工人数逐步增加，相反缴纳养老金的在职职工人数逐步减 少，城镇职工基本养老保险基金开始出现收不抵支现象。根据近年来城镇职工基本养老保险基金收支数据分析，黑龙江省城镇职工基本养老保险基金收支的亏损程度相对全国平均水平而言更加严重，再加上人均预期寿命延长、年轻劳动力外流等因素对城镇职工基本养老保险基金收支的影响，这都直接进一步影响到职工退休后的养老生活。多发达国家为缓解养老金收支带来的财政压力而推行延迟退休政策，效果明显。因此黑龙江省有必要结合自身省情并借鉴国际经验，深入研究延迟退休能否扭转本省养老金入不敷出的局面。

本文首先构建人口预测模型养老保险统筹基金收支模型，预测在现有退休制度下，黑龙江省 2021－2050 年城镇职工基本养老保险基金收支状况，然后测算在延迟退休的三种不同方案下，基金收支有何影响，再与现行退休制度下基金收支相比较，选出最合适的延迟退休方案。通过本文研究，可以得出以下结论：首先，在 2021－2050 年间黑龙江省城镇职工基本养老保险基金收入增长率远远低于支出增长率。其次，从短期来看，延迟退休的确能够有效缩小城镇职工基本养老保险基金缺口，但从长期来看，延长退休年龄的效果是有限的。再次，引入黑龙江省政治、经济、文化及群众认可度等要素后，延迟退休的第二个方案作用最优。最后，人均预期寿命延长、制度赡养率上升、劳动力外流等都是影响养老保险体系可持续发展的重要因素。结合实证分析结果，本文分别对短期和长期时间内提出了改善人口结构、缩小男女退休年龄差距、增加年假时长、减少劳动力流出等建议

China had already entered an aging society as early as 2000, and is expected to enter a moderately aging society by 2025, with a trend towards a deeply aging society. Under the existing retirement age standards, the "baby boomer" generation in China has now transformed into a "retirement boom". With the continuous acceleration of population aging, the number of retired employees receiving pensions has gradually increased, while the number of in-service employees paying pensions has gradually decreased. The basic pension insurance fund for urban employees has begun to experience a phenomenon of insufficient income to cover expenses. According to the analysis of the income and expenditure data of the basic pension insurance fund for urban employees in recent years, the degree of loss in the income and expenditure of the basic pension insurance fund for urban employees in Heilongjiang Province is relatively more serious compared to the national average level. In addition, factors such as the extension of per capita life expectancy and the outflow of young labor force have an impact on the income and expenditure of the basic pension insurance fund for urban employees, which directly further affects the retirement life of employees. Many developed countries have implemented delayed retirement policies to alleviate the financial pressure brought by pension income and  expenditure, with significant results. Therefore, it is necessary for Heilongjiang Province to combine its own provincial situation and draw on international experience to conduct in-depth research on whether delaying retirement can reverse the situation of insufficient pension income in the province. This article first constructs a population prediction model and a pension insurance pooling fund income and expenditure model to predict the income and expenditure status of the basic pension insurance fund for urban employees in Heilongjiang Province from 2021 to 2050 under the existing retirement system. Then, it calculates the impact of the fund income and expenditure under three different schemes of delayed retirement, and compares it with the fund income and expenditure under the current retirement system to select the most suitable delayed retirement scheme. Through this study, the following conclusions can be drawn: Firstly, the income growth rate of the basic pension insurance fund for urban employees in Heilongjiang Province from 2021 to 2050 is much lower than the expenditure growth rate. Secondly, in the short term, delaying retirement can indeed effectively narrow the gap in the basic pension insurance fund for urban employees, but in the long run, the effect of extending the retirement age is limited. Once again, after introducing factors such as politics, economy, culture, and public recognition in Heilongjiang Province, the second option of delaying retirement has the best effect. Finally, the extension of per capita life expectancy, the increase in institutional support rates, and labor outflow are all important factors that affect the sustainable development of the pension insurance system. Based on empirical analysis results, this article proposes suggestions for improving population structure, narrowing the gender retirement age gap, increasing annual leave duration, and reducing labor outflow in the short and long term, respectively