金融学院知识库

在全球化深度发展的当今时代，所有国家已经成为你中有我、我中有你的命运共同体，气候变化和碳排放问题是国际社会的共同关切。我国作为发展和碳排放大国，积极履行碳减排责任，提出“碳达峰、碳中和”目标，二十大也高度重视绿色低碳生活对可持续发展的至关重要性。在“双碳”以及“双循环”战略的深入推进下，家庭这一重要能耗部门的能源消费及其碳排放状况将不断增长。而保险尤其是社会保险在民生改善领域发挥着重要的作用，通过代际收入、代内收入转移，降低家庭对未来的不确定预期，对家庭当期消费产生影响，那么社会保险参与对家庭间接碳排放的影响是怎么样的？又是如何影响家庭间接碳排放的？

因此本文基于CFPS数据，以家庭作为微观主体，首先利用消费者生活方式（CLA）法核算由家庭日常八类消费所释放的碳排放量，采用双向固定效应计量模型，从户主个人特征、家庭人口和经济特征和区域特征等多个维度探究社会保险对家庭经济碳排放量的影响，然后分别从区域以及城乡视角分析了社会保险影响家庭间接碳排放的时空格局特征及其变化，此外，本文还利用中介效应模型对其中的传导机制进行验证。通过以上理论分析和实证研究，本文得出的几点重要结论如下：第一，社会保险对家庭碳排放量有显著的正向促进效应，即家庭社会保险参保人数和种类越多，保障水平越高，会产生更多的碳排放；第二，消费规模的扩大为社会保险影响家庭间接碳排放量的重要渠道，社会保险提高家庭抵御风险的能力，通过降低对未来的不确定性降低预期性储蓄，从而增加家庭即期消费能力，对家庭间接碳排放施加正向作用；第三，社会保险参与有益于优化升级家庭消费结构，发展享受型消费增加驱动影响家庭间接碳排放量；第四，社会保险在经济发展状况不同的地区对于家庭经济碳排放的促进作用具有差异，边际效应呈现由东至西递减的规律，且对于城镇和乡村家庭的促进作用也具有显著差异。

最后，基于上述的研究结论，在加快推进社会保险深层次发展的同时，应寻求社会保险与绿色低碳的平衡与融合；针对性制定碳减排措施；政府与保险企业引导广大居民增强环保意识，在确保居民生活水平提升的条件下鼓励家庭向绿色消费模式转变，为“双碳”目标的实现奠定良好的微观基础。

 In this era of deep globalisation, when all countries have become a community of destiny in which you are one of us and we are one of you, the issues of climate change and carbon emissions are of common concern to the international community. As a major developing and carbon-emitting country, China has actively fulfilled its responsibility to reduce carbon emissions and put forward the goal of "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality", and the Twentieth National Congress has also attached great importance to the crucial importance of a green and low-carbon life for sustainable development. Under the "dual-carbon" and "dual-cycle" strategies, the energy consumption and carbon emissions of households, an important energy-consuming sector, will continue to grow. While insurance, especially social insurance, plays an important role in improving people's livelihoods, and through intergenerational and intragenerational income transfer, it reduces the uncertainty of families' expectations of the future, and has an impact on their current consumption, what is the impact of social insurance participation on households' indirect carbon emissions? And how does it affect household indirect carbon emissions?

Therefore, based on the CFPS data, this paper takes the household as the micro subject, firstly uses the consumer lifestyle (CLA) method to account for the carbon emissions released by the eight types of daily household consumption, and then adopts the two-way fixed-effects econometric model to explore the impact of social insurance on the carbon emissions of the household economy in terms of the personal characteristics of the head of the household, the demographic and economic characteristics of the household, and the characteristics of the region. Then the spatial and temporal patterns and changes in the indirect carbon emissions of households affected by social insurance are analysed from the regional and urban-rural perspectives respectively, and in addition, the paper also uses the mediation effect model to verify the transmission mechanism. Through the above theoretical analyses and empirical studies, this paper draws several important conclusions as follows: first, social insurance has a significant positive effect on household carbon emissions, i.e., the higher the number and types of household social insurance participants and the higher the level of protection, the more carbon emissions will be generated; second, the expansion of the scale of consumption is an important channel through which social insurance affects the indirect carbon emissions of the household, and the social insurance enhances the ability of the household to withstand risks by reducing the risk to the future. Third, the participation of social insurance is beneficial to optimising and upgrading the household consumption structure, and the development of enjoyment-based consumption increases the drive to influence household indirect carbon emissions; fourth, the promotion effect of social insurance on household economic carbon emissions in regions with different states of economic development varies, and the marginal effect shows that it varies from one region to another, and the marginal effect shows that it varies from one region to another, and the marginal effect shows that it varies from one region to another. Fourthly, the promotion effect of social insurance on household economic carbon emissions varies in different regions with different economic development status, with the marginal effect showing a decreasing pattern from east to west, and there is also a significant difference in the promotion effect on urban and rural households.

Finally, based on the above conclusions, while accelerating the in-depth development of social insurance, we should seek the balance and integration of social insurance and green low-carbon; formulate targeted carbon emission reduction measures; the government and insurance enterprises should guide the general residents to enhance their environmental protection awareness, and encourage families to shift to a green consumption pattern under the condition of ensuring the improvement of residents' living standards, so as to lay a good micro-foundation for the realisation of the goal of "dual-carbon". This will lay a good micro-foundation for the realisation of the "dual-carbon" goal.