经济学院知识库

当今世界正在经历百年未有之大变局，中国需要抓住历史性机遇、妥善应对风险挑战。随着数字经济的发展，数据要素作为新型生产要素，凭借高质量的数据流通和供给，深刻影响企业行为、产业结构、政府建设和群众生活，推动新质生产力的发展。数字经济的发展有益于突破传统的经济发展方式，助力实现碳达峰碳中和。基于此，探讨数字经济发展与碳排放的关系，并在构建全国统一大市场的发展背景下进一步研究，对建成新发展格局、实现高质量发展具有重要意义。

本文聚焦数字经济发展对碳排放的影响效应及作用机制，开展文献回顾、理论分析与实证检验。在理论方面，首先，通过推导数理模型，探究在经济发展影响环境质量的过程中，数字经济起到怎样的作用；然后，构建绿色索洛模型，并与理论分析相结合，讨论数字经济影响碳排放的内在作用机制。在实证方面，首先，采用我国2011-2022年288个地级市及以上城市的面板数据，构建数字经济发展与碳排放总量指标，借助空间分位图、马尔科夫链、泰尔指数等方法探究数字经济发展和碳排放总量的空间特征及演变规律。其次，采用固定效应模型、机器学习模型进行分析，并从市场分割角度阐述了数字经济发展影响碳排放的作用路径。最后，从地区异质性、资源禀赋异质性层面深入分析，试图从理论和实证层面厘清数字经济发展影响碳排放总量的具体效应和主要机制。

研究发现：（1）中国城市数字经济发展水平与碳排放具有明显的时空异质性。研究期内，数字经济发展水平总体提升较大，在空间维度有“俱乐部收敛”特征，但目前发展水平差异仍比较大，且跳跃式转移的概率较小；绝大部分城市的碳排放总量明显降低，但总体差异明显，且呈上升趋势。（2）样本期间内，城市经济发展与碳排放间呈现“倒U型”关系，数字经济发展的加入使进入碳减排阶段的经济发展程度的门槛值更低，但碳排放峰值变大。（3）数字经济发展对城市碳排放存在“倒U型”非线性影响，且数字经济发展在促进碳排放增加时存在瓶颈期。即发展初期，数字经济减碳作用较弱，但当数字经济发展到一定阶段，数字经济发展水平小幅度提升就能使碳排放总量迅速降低。（4）数字经济对碳排放的影响存在显著的空间异质性和资源禀赋异质性。数字经济发展对碳排放总量的影响效应由强到弱依次为东部地区、东北地区、中部地区、西部地区，且资源型城市的数字经济发展减碳效应大于非资源型城市。

基于以上主要研究结论，提出以下对策建议：（1）各地级市应注重数字经济的均衡发展，缩小地级市间的数字鸿沟。（2）地级市间加强合作，加快数字经济发展，为碳减排提供新动能。（3）防范数字经济监管不严、数据垄断等问题的出现，避免市场分割状况加剧。（4）立足区域发展差异和资源禀赋差异，因地制宜发展数字经济，促进碳减排。

The world today is undergoing a great change that has not been seen in a century. China needs to seize the historic opportunities and properly addresse risks and challenges. As a new type of production factor, by virtue of high-quality data circulation and supply, the digital economy profoundly affects corporate behavior, industrial structure, government construction and the life of the masses. Ulyimately, the digital economy promotes the development of new-quality productivity. The development of digital economy is beneficial to break through the traditional way of economic development and helps to realize peak carbon neutral. Based on this, it is of great significance to explore the relationship between the digital economy and carbon emissions, and to further study it in the context of the development of a unified national market . This study is of great significance for building a new development pattern and realizing high-quality development.

Centering on the impact and the mechanism of digital economy development on carbon emissions , this paper carries out literature review, the theoretical analysis and empirical test. In the theoretical analysis, firstly, through the derivation of mathematical models, the role of the digital economy in the process of economic development on the impact of environmental quality is explored. To reveal the impact of the digital economy on carbon emissions, the Green Thoreau model is constructed. And combining it with the theoretical analysis to explain the above problems. In the empirical test, firstly, we select 288 prefecture-level and above cities in China to constryct a panel data. And we construct the index of digital economy development and total carbon emission.through spatial quantile map, Markoff chain and Tyre index, the spatial characteristics and evolution process of digital economy and total carbon emission are explored . Secondly, from the perspective of market segmentation, we use the fixed effect model and machine learning model to analyze the impact of digital economy on carbon emissions. Finally, this paper analyzes the regional heterogeneity and resource endowment heterogeneity. In addition this, this paper tries to clarify the specific effects and main mechanisms of the digital economy development on the scale of carbon emissions.

The main findings of the study are as follows: (1) There is obvious spatio-temporal heterogeneity between the level of digital economy development and carbon emissions in Chinese cities. The total carbon emissions of most cities decreased significantly, but the overall difference was obvious and showed an upward trend. (2) During the sample period, there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between economic development and carbon emissions in Chinese cities. With the ehtry of digital economic development, the threshold for economic development to enter the carbon emission reduction stage is lowered, but the peak of carbon emission rises. (3) The development of digital economy has an inverted U-shaped non-linear effect on urban carbon emissions. There is a bottleneck period for the development of digital economy to promote the increase of carbon emissions. In the early stage of the digital economy, the role of digital economy on carbon emission reduction is weak. But when the digital economy develops to a certain stage, a small increase in the level of digital economic development can quickly reduce the total amount of carbon emissions. (4) The impact of digital economy on carbon emissions has significant spatial heterogeneity and resource endowment heterogeneity. The impact of digital economic development on the scale of carbon emissions in the eastern region, the northeastern region, the central region and the western region is in order from strong to weak. The carbon-reducing effect of digital economic development in resource-based cities is greater than that in non-resource-based cities.

On the basis of the above main findings, we propose corresponding policy recommendations: (1) Prefectural cities should pay attention to the balanced development of the digital economy and reduce the digital gap between them. (2) Strengthen the cooperation between prefectural cities to accelerate the development of digital economy and provide new impetus for carbon emission reduction. (3) Preventing problems such as lax regulation of the digital economy and data monopoly, and avoiding increased market segmentation. (4) Based on differences in regional development and resource endowment, each prefectural city should develop its digital economy inaccordance with local conditions. Leveraging the strengths of the digital economy to fully contribute to carbon emission reductions.