国际经济与贸易学院知识库

Since the announcement of the "dual carbon" target, the issue of carbon emissions has increasingly received high attention from all sectors of society. As a high-energy consuming industry, manufacturing generates a large amount of carbon dioxide in production activities. Technology is an important path for carbon reduction. At this time, we should adhere to innovation driven development, take technological innovation as a key lever to comprehensively shape new advantages in manufacturing development, and accelerate the green transformation of manufacturing. Based on a review and summary of literature on technological innovation and carbon emissions, this article constructs a theoretical analysis framework for technological innovation, carbon emissions, and industrial spillover effects, and analyzes the spillover effects of technological innovation on the manufacturing industry under the dual carbon background; We measured and analyzed manufacturing technology innovation and carbon emission efficiency using entropy method and carbon emission coefficient method; We comprehensively utilized spatial econometric models to explore the impact and indirect spillover effects of technological innovation on carbon emissions in the manufacturing industry. The social network analysis method was used to study the spillover effects and pathways of technological innovation on carbon emissions in the manufacturing industry. The main research content and conclusions of the paper are as follows:

(1) Based on the entropy method, an index system for technological innovation index is constructed from three aspects: innovation input, innovation output, and innovation support. In the manufacturing industry, the industries with higher technological innovation index are mostly high-tech industries, while the rest are mostly labor-intensive and capital intensive industries. Based on the carbon emission coefficient method, the carbon emissions of 30 manufacturing industries were calculated, and it was found that the carbon emissions of capital intensive industries were much higher than those of technology intensive and labor-intensive industries.

(2) The estimation results of the spatial Durbin model show that technological innovation has an overall inhibitory effect on the carbon emission efficiency of the manufacturing industry in the short term, which means that technological innovation can increase the carbon emissions of the manufacturing industry in the short term. The decomposition of indirect spillover effects reveals that technological innovation in this industry has a significant positive spillover effect on the carbon emission efficiency of upstream and downstream industries, which means that technological innovation in this industry can reduce the carbon emissions of upstream and downstream industries. And in three industries with different levels of technological innovation, it was found that technology in industries with high levels of technological innovation can have a positive spillover effect on the carbon emission efficiency of upstream and downstream industries, that is, reduce the carbon emissions of upstream and downstream industries. Technology in industries with medium levels of technological innovation can only have a spillover effect on the carbon emissions of downstream industries, but there is no spillover effect on upstream industries. However, the spillover effects of technology from industries with low levels of technological innovation on upstream and downstream industries are not significant.

(3) By constructing a spillover and absorption effect matrix, it was found that the industries with high spillover and absorption effects of manufacturing technology innovation on carbon emissions are technology intensive industries.

(4) Overall, with the passage of time, the degree of connection between technological innovation and carbon emission spillovers between upstream and downstream industries in the manufacturing industry has gradually strengthened. However, the spillover effect of technological innovation on carbon emissions in downstream industries and the absorption effect on upstream industries show a relatively uneven distribution among various manufacturing industries. From an individual perspective, there are 7 industries that can overflow their technological innovation to their downstream industries, thereby affecting their carbon emissions. They can also absorb technological innovation from upstream industries to reduce their own carbon emissions. Six industries have significant spillover effects of technological innovation on carbon emissions in downstream industries and do not absorb spillover effects from upstream industries.

(5) Through the spillover effect network diagram, it was found that over time, the spillover path of technological innovation between manufacturing industries on carbon emissions has significantly increased. Taking the previous two industries as examples, two specific spillover paths of technological innovation on manufacturing carbon emissions can be analyzed from the spillover effect network diagram: ① computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing → specialized equipment manufacturing → wood processing and wood, bamboo, rattan, palm, and grass products industry → furniture manufacturing industry ② electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry → general equipment manufacturing industry → textile industry → textile and clothing industry.