国际经济与贸易学院知识库

当前世界正处于百年未有之大变局时刻，尤其处在数字经济时代，各国都希望抓住数字技术来促进发展，但存在制造业转型升级和生产性服务业高精尖技术水平提高难等问题。面对困境，一些国家采取了制造业回流和服务业升级的方式来推动自身经济发展；而我国则是抓住生产性服务业高技术、多元知识集聚的特点，通过推动其与制造业的融合并利用数字技术的优势来有效解决发展难题。党的二十大报告指出，面对当前严峻的国际形势和巨大挑战，我们要坚持高质量发展主题，构建更优质的制造业服务新体系，推动制造业与服务业深度融合，也要加快数字经济发展的推动作用。《中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十四个五年规划和2035年远景目标纲要》同样也指出需要两业的深入融合发展。当前二者融合才是解决产业发展的重要举措之一，所以我们要准确把握数字技术优势，充分发挥其助推两者深度融合的优势，打造我国现代化产业体系。

本文以数字技术和制造业与生产性服务业融合水平为研究对象；首先借鉴前人研究成果及相关概念进行理论分析；其次通过测算出我国30个省（市）2011-2021年间的数字技术水平，并建立耦合协调模型计算融合的整体情况；最后运用固定效应模型及中介效应模型实证分析了两者深度融合过程中数字技术如何起到驱动作用以及中间机理的形成过程。

实证分析得出以下结论：第一，数字技术对于两者深度融合具有显著正向促进作用，在考虑内源性问题并使用工具变量法解决后结果仍然呈正向趋势；第二，机理检验表明数字技术通过技术创新路径和社会需求路径起到推动作用，加速制造业与生产性服务业的融合；第三，异质性分析显示了数字技术在不同区域对于两者整体融合水平影响强弱存在差异, 具体表现为东部地区 > 中部地区 > 东北地区 > 西部地区。这些结论有助于阐明数字技术对促进两产业融合的内在机理, 为淬炼后续政策建议给予启示。

At present, the world is undergoing profound changes unseen in a century, especially in the era of digital economy. All countries hope to seize digital technology to promote development. However, it is difficult to transform and upgrade the manufacturing industry and improve the high-tech level of producer services. Faced with the difficulties, some countries have adopted the way of manufacturing reshoring and service upgrading to promote their economic development. China, on the other hand, grasps the characteristics of high-tech and diversified knowledge agglomeration of producer service industry, promotes its integration with manufacturing industry and utilizes the advantages of digital technology to effectively solve development problems. The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China pointed out that in the face of the current severe international situation and great challenges, we must adhere to the theme of high-quality development, build a new system of better manufacturing services, promote the deep integration of manufacturing and service industries, and accelerate the role of digital economy development. The 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of the People's Republic of China and the Outline of 2035 Vision Goals also point out the need for in-depth integration of the two industries. At present, the integration of the two is one of the important measures to solve the industrial development, so we must accurately grasp the advantages of digital technology, give full play to the advantages of boosting the deep integration of the two, and build China's modern industrial system.

This paper takes digital technology and the integration level of manufacturing and producer services as the research object; Firstly, the paper makes theoretical analysis based on previous research results and related concepts. Secondly, by calculating the digital technology level of 30 provinces (municipalities) in China during 2011-2021, the coupled coordination model is established to calculate the overall level of integration. Finally, using the fixed effect model and the intermediary effect model, the paper empirically analyzes how digital technology plays a driving role in the process of deep integration of the two and the formation process of driving mechanism.

The empirical analysis draws the following conclusions: Firstly, digital technology has a significant positive effect on the deep integration of the two, and the result is still positive after considering the endogenous problem and using the instrumental variable method to solve it; Secondly, the mechanism test shows that digital technology promotes the integration of manufacturing and producer services through technological innovation and social demand paths. Thirdly, heterogeneity analysis shows that digital technology has different influence on the overall integration level in different regions, which is shown as eastern region > central region > Northeast region > Western region. These conclusions help to clarify the internal mechanism of digital technology for promoting the integration of the two industries, and give inspiration for refining subsequent policy recommendations.