会计学院知识库

随着国内基础设施需求的不断增长，资金大量流向该领域，但当前基础设施内部资金利用效率不高。为改善此状况，发改委积极推动基础设施REITs试点项目，旨在提升资金流动性并拓宽投融资渠道，从而激活存量资金。然而，REITs因其兼具金融和不动产特性，其复杂性使得投资者在价值评估上面临诸多挑战。因此，为广泛推广基础设施REITs并消除投资者疑虑，对现有价值评估方法进行改进显得至关重要。

经过对国内外REITs评估方法的系统梳理，本文基于REITs相关理论，对三种不同的REITs价值评估方法进行了对比分析。研究结果显示，营运资金现金流法在评估REITs价值方面更具优势。然而，该方法在预测未来现金流时不可避免地带有一定的主观性，这可能导致预测结果的准确性受到影响。因此，本文旨在通过引入新陈代谢离散灰色预测模型对现有方法进行优化，以提高预测精度。收集利用JH高速的历年经营数据，建立营业收入数据序列，并计算白化微分方程。通过求解该方程中的未知参数，成功构建预测模型。然后，以JH高速REITs为具体案例，利用改进后的模型对基础资产的未来收入进行预测，以期得到更为准确和可靠的预测结果。并用灰色预测模型对每年的现金流进行修正。最终，根据修正后的现金流计算得出评估结果。

本文的研究得出了以下结论：首先，收益法适用于具有稳定现金流入的基础资产高速REITs的价值评估；其次，通过利用新陈代谢离散灰色预测模型对传统的收益法进行改进，能够有效提高预测结果的准确性。因此，本研究为高速REITs的价值评估提供了一种新的思路和方法。

With the growing demand for domestic infrastructure, a large amount of capital flows into this field, but the current internal capital utilization efficiency of infrastructure is not high. In order to improve this situation, the National Development and Reform Commission actively promotes the pilot project of infrastructure REITs, aiming to enhance capital liquidity and broaden investment and financing channels, thereby activating the stock funds. However, due to their dual characteristics of finance and real estate, the complexity of REITs poses numerous challenges for investors in valuation. Therefore, it is crucial to improve the existing value assessment methods in order to promote infrastructure REITs widely and dispel investors＇doubts.

After systematically reviewing the REITs valuation methods at home and abroad, this article conducted a comparative analysis of three different REITs value evaluation methods based on REITs related theories. The research findings demonstrate that the working capital cash flow method possesses numerous advantages in evaluating the value of REITs. However, this method inevitably carries some subjectivity in predicting future cash flow, which may affect the accuracy of the prediction results. Therefore, this article aims to optimize the existing method by introducing a metabolic discrete grey prediction model to improve the prediction accuracy. Collecting and utilizing the historical operating data of JH Expressway, establishing an operating income data sequence, and calculating the whitening differential equation. By solving the unknown parameters in this equation, a prediction model was successfully constructed. Subsequently, utilizing the improved model, JH Expressway REITs was taken as a specific case to predict the future income of the underlying assets, aiming to achieve more accurate and reliable prediction outcomes. The grey prediction model was used to revise the cash flow every year. Finally, the evaluation results were calculated based on the revised cash flow.

The study of this article has reached the following conclusions: Firstly, the income method is suitable for the value assessment of high-speed REITs with stable cash inflows of underlying assets; secondly, the traditional income method can be effectively improved by utilizing the metabolic discrete grey prediction model, which can significantly enhance the accuracy of prediction results. Therefore, this study provides a new idea and method for the value assessment of high-speed REITs.