国际经济与贸易学院知识库

  机电产品贸易在全球经济中占据核心地位，其出口更是推动国家经济发展的重要战略支柱。近年来，我国机电产品出口成绩斐然，作为对外贸易的主力商品，其地位日益凸显。然而，当前国际形势复杂多变，政治冲突不断，国际经贸规则面临严峻挑战。在此背景下，《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》（RCEP）的生效与实施展现出了强大的活力，为区域经济一体化和全球贸易的健康发展注入了新的动力。然而，物流发展水平作为影响国际贸易的重要因素，在RCEP各国间呈现出显著的差异和不平衡，这对我国机电产品出口形成了重大阻碍。因此本文详细探讨了RCEP成员国的物流绩效水平对中国机电产品出口的影响，并从物流绩效的角度出发，为中国机电产品出口贸易的扩大提供新的思路和策略，并对中国机电行业提供有针对性的对策建议，助力其在RCEP的框架下实现更加稳健和可持续的发展。

  本文采用世界银行2007年至2022年发布的物流绩效指数及其六个分项指标，对RCEP成员国的物流发展状况进行了深入剖析。随后，分析我国机电产品出口的总体状况以及对RCEP成员国机电产品出口贸易的发展态势。最后，通过运用扩展的贸易引力模型，从实证分析的视角验证了RCEP成员国物流绩效对我国机电产品出口贸易的正向促进作用，从而进一步揭示了物流绩效在推动机电产品出口中的重要作用。

  结果表明：（1）RCEP成员国的平均综合物流绩效指数持续呈现上升趋势，优于世界平均水平。（2）RCEP国家在物流绩效指数的综合排名上存在显著差异。（3）从物流绩效的六个分项指标来看，RCEP成员国在货物运输及时性和国际运输便利性方面表现出色。（4）中国对RCEP国家的机电产品出口总额在近年来持续增长，占总机电产品总出口的比重也保持在较高水平，这反映了中国与RCEP国家之间的经贸合作日益密切。（5）RCEP成员国的物流绩效与中国机电产品出口贸易之间存在显著的正向关联。通过对物流绩效指数（LPI）的六个分项指标进行回归分析，结果显示各项分指标对机电产品出口贸易的影响水平存在一定差异。（6）通过对不同经济水平的国家进行了异质性分析，发现不同经济水平的国家其物流绩效对中国机电产品出口贸易的影响存在显著的异质性，特别是对发达国家和发展中国家的影响尤为明显。为了验证这一结论的稳健性，剔除了RCEP成员国中与中国机电产品出口贸易额较少的三个国家进行检验，结果表明无论是物流绩效指数还是其六个分项指标，均对中国机电产品出口贸易具有显著的正向推动作用。

最后基于以上分析提出相应对策建议: 第一，完善物流基础设施建设，促进物流业与制造业深度融合。第二，简化的海关程序，推动提高通关效率。第三，强化物流数字化科技赋能，提高物流可追溯性。

   The trade of electromechanical products occupies a core position in the global economy, and their exports are an important strategic pillar for promoting national economic development. In recent years, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products have achieved remarkable results, and their status as the main commodity in foreign trade has become increasingly prominent. However, the current international situation is complex and ever-changing, with constant political conflicts, and international economic and trade rules facing severe challenges. In this context, the entry into force and implementation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) have demonstrated strong vitality, injecting new impetus into the healthy development of regional economic integration and global trade. However, the level of logistics development, as an important factor affecting international trade, shows significant differences and imbalances among RCEP countries, which poses a significant obstacle to China's exports of mechanical and electrical products. Therefore, this article explores in detail the impact of the logistics performance level of RCEP member countries on China's electromechanical product exports, and from the perspective of logistics performance, provides new ideas and strategies for the expansion of China's electromechanical product export trade, and provides targeted countermeasures and suggestions for China's electromechanical industry to help it achieve more stable and sustainable development under the framework of RCEP.

     This article uses the Logistics Performance Index and its six sub indicators released by the World Bank from 2007 to 2022 to conduct an in-depth analysis of the logistics development status of RCEP member countries. Subsequently, analyze the overall situation of China's electromechanical product exports and the development trend of electromechanical product export trade with RCEP member countries. Finally, by applying an extended trade gravity model, the positive promoting effect of logistics performance of RCEP member countries on China's mechanical and electrical product export trade was verified from an empirical analysis perspective, further revealing the important role of logistics performance in promoting the export of mechanical and electrical products.

     The results indicate that: (1)The average comprehensive logistics performance index of RCEP member countries continues to show an upward trend, surpassing the world average level. (2)There are significant differences in the comprehensive ranking of logistics performance index among RCEP countries. (3)From the six sub indicators of logistics performance, RCEP member countries have shown outstanding performance in terms of timely and convenient international transportation of goods. (4)China's total exports of mechanical and electrical products to RCEP countries have continued to grow in recent years, accounting for a relatively high proportion of the total exports of mechanical and electrical products. This reflects the increasingly close economic and trade cooperation between China and RCEP countries. (5) There is a significant positive correlation between the logistics performance of RCEP member countries and China's export trade of mechanical and electrical products. Through regression analysis of the six sub indicators of Logistics Performance Index (LPI), the results show that there are certain differences in the impact level of each sub indicator on the export trade of mechanical and electrical products. (6)Through heterogeneity analysis of countries with different economic levels, it was found that there is significant heterogeneity in the impact of logistics performance on China's electromechanical product export trade, especially on developed and developing countries. To verify the robustness of this conclusion, three RCEP member countries with lower export trade volume of mechanical and electrical products to China were excluded for testing. The results showed that both the logistics performance index and its six sub indicators had a significant positive driving effect on China's mechanical and electrical product export trade.

Finally, based on the above analysis, corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are proposed: firstly, improve the construction of logistics infrastructure and promote the deep integration of logistics and manufacturing industries. Secondly, simplified customs procedures will promote the improvement of customs clearance efficiency. Thirdly, strengthen the empowerment of logistics digital technology and improve logistics traceability.