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在当前全球经济环境下，企业资本结构的优化成为推动公司长期稳健发展的核心问题之一。资本结构的合理性不仅关系到企业的经营策略和价值创造，而且直接影响到企业的可持续发展。特别是对于汽车行业，这一行业正面临着新能源革命和国家政策的双重挑战。此前的中央经济工作会议指出，要稳定和扩大传统消费，提振新能源汽车，这对传统汽车企业提出了转型升级的要求。在这样的背景下，财务权变理论提供了一个理论框架，以可持续发展为最终目标，结合财务权变理论的四个层面进行深入探讨，全面审视资本结构优化议题，具有一定的研究意义。

上汽集团，作为曾经的行业“老大哥”，伴随着新能源时代的到来，这位燃油车时代的霸主显然有点“水土不服”。因此，为了应对行业变革，对上汽集团资本结构的优化研究不仅对财务权变理论在案例企业中的应用提供启示，也对上汽集团优化其资本结构，提升自身的财务稳健性提供参考，这对于处于转型期背景下的汽车企业来说能够起到参考。

本研究首先逐步阐明了资本结构和财务权变的概念界限。因为2018年是上汽集团转型的重要年份，这一年开始，新能源汽车市场快速发展，对上汽集团的资本结构产生了重大影响。接着，通过选取2018至2022年的上汽集团财务数据，并运用纵向及横向分析方法，揭示了其在转型期间资本结构的不合理之处，并据此断定上汽集团目前急需对其进行资本结构调整。在此基础上，基于财务权变理论，从路径依赖、内外部因素等视角，对上汽集团的资本结构影响因素分析，并运用变异系数法对其进行筛选，测算出最佳的资本结构范围为[56.38%,62.38%]。为了帮助上汽集团达到这一最佳的资本结构，论文还给出了一系列具体的优化对策，主要有：适当降低资产负债率、调整债务结构等、实现融资方式多样化及提升内源融资比例等四项关键对策。

Under the current global economic environment, the optimization of enterprise capital structure has become one of the core issues to promote the long-term and steady development of the company. The rationality of capital structure is not only related to the business strategy and value creation of enterprises, but also directly affects the sustainable development of enterprises. Especially for the automotive industry, this industry is facing the dual challenges of the new energy revolution and national policies. The previous Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that it is necessary to stabilize and expand traditional consumption and boost new energy vehicles, which puts forward the transformation and upgrading requirements for traditional automobile enterprises. In this context, financial contingency theory provides a theoretical framework, with sustainable development as the ultimate goal, from the four dimensions of financial contingency theory to optimize the capital structure of the overall analysis, has a certain research significance.

Saic, as the former "big brother" of the industry, with the arrival of the new energy era, the hegemon of the fuel vehicle era is obviously a little "acclimatized". Therefore, in order to cope with the industry changes, the study on the optimization of SAIC's capital structure not only provides inspiration for the application of financial contingency theory in the case enterprises, but also provides reference for SAIC to optimize its capital structure and improve its financial robustness, which can be a reference for automobile enterprises in the background of transformation.

Firstly, the conceptual boundaries of capital structure and financial contingency are expounded step by step. Because 2018 is an important year for SAIC's transformation, the rapid development of the new energy vehicle market has had a significant impact on SAIC's capital structure since the beginning of this year. Then, by selecting the financial data of SAIC from 2018 to 2022 and using vertical and horizontal analysis methods, this paper reveals the unreasonable capital structure of SAIC during the transformation period, and concludes that SAIC is in urgent need of capital structure adjustment. On this basis, based on the financial contingency theory and from the perspectives of path dependence, internal and external factors, the influencing factors of SAIC's capital structure are analyzed, and the coefficient of variation method is used to screen them, and the optimal range of capital structure is calculated as [56.38%,62.38%]. In order to help SAIC achieve this optimal capital structure, the paper also gives a series of specific optimization countermeasures, including: appropriate reduction of asset-liability ratio, adjustment of debt structure, diversification of financing methods and improvement of the proportion of internal financing.