会计学院知识库

  我国生猪市场存在明显周期性特征。牧原股份和正邦科技同为生猪养殖行业的头部企业，在本轮猪周期中，均采取了一些应对措施。牧原股份采用了全产业链覆盖的重资产生产经营策略，极大地降低了生猪养殖成本，提升了盈利能力，减小了下行周期会面临的风险冲击。正邦科技为了赶上猪周期的上行周期，采用了“公司+农户”的轻资产扩张模式，由于忽视猪周期仍大幅扩张，同时由于采用了轻资产运营模式而难以控制养殖成本，导致财务风险出现。因而面对生猪养殖行业的特殊性，需建立财务风险预警机制，减少猪周期下行周期对利润的影响。

  本文运用熵值法构建了牧原股份和正邦科技的财务分析指标体系并计算出权重，再算出各个指标的熵值、信息效用值、权重系数，最后结合功效系数法算出牧原股份和正邦科技2013年-2022年的财务风险等级并进行验证，分析出生猪养殖企业不同资产运营模式面临的财务风险也存在一些差异。轻资产运营模式下，生猪养殖企业的扩张速度更快，风险更大；重资产运营模式下，企业能够更好地控制生猪养殖成本但灵活性较差。两个案例企业均存在一定偿债风险，可能会无法及时偿还债务，增加以后的融资负担。除此之外，牧原股份与正邦科技的资产利用率不高，可能会影响到资金链的稳定并带来一定风险。最后，本文给出相关的财务风险控制建议：采用轻资产运营模式的生猪养殖企业要充分利用好灵活的优势，根据猪周期的变化调整生产规模，以做到增加利润或减少损失，在此基础上逐渐转型为重资产运营模式。采用重资产运营模式的生猪养殖企业要进一步控制成本，重视研发，提高资产周转率。

China's pig market has obvious cyclical characteristics. Muyuan shares and Zhengbang Technology are both the leading enterprises in the pig breeding industry, and have taken some countermeasures in this round of pig cycle. Muyuan Co., Ltd. has adopted a heavy asset production and operation strategy covering the whole industry chain, which has greatly reduced the cost of pig breeding, improved profitability and reduced the risk impact that will be faced in the downward cycle. In order to catch up with the upward cycle of the pig cycle, Zhengbang Technology has adopted the asset-light expansion model of "company + farmer", which has been greatly expanded in recent years due to ignoring the pig cycle, and at the same time, it is difficult to control the cost of breeding due to the adoption of the asset-light operation model, resulting in financial risks. Therefore, in the face of the particularity of the pig breeding industry, it is necessary to establish a financial risk early warning mechanism to reduce the impact of the downward cycle of the pig cycle on profits.

This paper uses the entropy method to construct the financial analysis index system of Muyuan shares and Zhengbang Technology and calculates the weights, then calculates the entropy value, information utility value and weight coefficient of each index, and finally calculates the financial risk level of Muyuan shares and Zhengbang Technology from 2013 to 2022 in combination with the efficacy coefficient method and verifies it, and analyzes that there are some differences in the financial risks faced by different asset operation models of pig breeding enterprises. Under the asset-light operation model, pig breeding enterprises can expand faster and with greater risks, while under the asset-heavy operation model, enterprises can better control the cost of pig breeding but are less flexible. In both cases, there is a certain risk of debt repayment, and the company may not be able to repay the debt in a timely manner, which will increase the financing burden in the future. In addition, the asset utilization rate of Muyuan shares and Zhengbang Technology is not high, which may affect the stability of the capital chain and bring certain risks. Finally, this paper gives relevant financial risk control suggestions: pig breeding enterprises that adopt the asset-light operation model should make full use of the advantages of flexibility, adjust the production scale according to the changes in the pig cycle, so as to increase profits or reduce losses, and gradually transform to an asset-heavy operation mode on this basis. Pig breeding enterprises that adopt an asset-heavy operation model should further control costs, attach importance to research and development, and improve asset turnover.