会计学院知识库

盈余信息是会计信息的重要组成部分，高质量的盈余信息能够客观地反映企业的经营成果,帮助信息使用者作出合理的经济决策。然而近些年来，越来越多的管理层为谋取自身利益进行盈余管理，随着监管环境日益严格，管理层越来越倾向于采用真实盈余管理这一方式，这一行为不仅会对企业产生不利影响，还会误导投资者作出错误的投资决策，影响到资本市场的正常运行，因此怎样及时发现并制止真实盈余管理行为显得至关重要。商品短缺是计划经济时代存在的问题，在我国改革开放的过程中，随着市场经济体制不断发展与完善，生产数量不够的问题已经迎刃而解，但随之暴露出来的是生产能力过剩的问题。管理层是否会进行真实盈余管理受到内外部多重因素的影响，如内部因素企业自身的治理水平、融资能力以及外部因素行业监管环境等等，那么当前我国日益凸显的生产能力过剩问题会不会对企业的真实盈余管理行为产生影响正是下文将要探讨的问题。

本文首先对产能过剩和真实盈余管理相关的文献进行了梳理，然后运用信息不对称理论、信号传递理论和机会主义行为理论并结合我国上市公司现状，提出了本文的主假设和调节效应假设。为验证假设，本文选取了2010年—2021年全部上市公司的23644个数据作为研究样本，构建相关模型，进行多元回归分析和稳健性检验，最后在进一步研究中，分析了企业金融化在两者关系中的作用机制。研究发现：第一，产能过剩与真实盈余管理显著正相关，即产能过剩越严重，真实盈余管理程度越高；第二，良好的内部控制、高的股权集中度和稳定的经济政策可以削弱两者的正向相关关系；第三，企业金融化在产能过剩对真实盈余管理的正向影响中发挥了中介作用。

本文探究了产能过剩对企业真实盈余管理的影响，丰富了真实盈余管理的影响因素研究，为监管机构及时识别企业的真实盈余管理行为提供了思路，也拓展了产能过剩带来的微观经济后果研究，以期引起社会关注，在政府和企业的共同努力下早日解决产能过剩问题。

Earnings information is an important part of accounting information. High-quality earnings information can objectively reflect the operating results of enterprises and help information users to make reasonable economic decisions. However, in recent years, more and more managers conduct earnings management for their own interests. With the increasingly strict regulatory environment, managers are more and more inclined to adopt real earnings management, which will not only have adverse effects on enterprises, but also mislead investors to make wrong investment decisions, which will affect the normal operation of the capital market. So how to find and stop the real earnings management behavior in time is very important. Commodity shortage is a problem in the era of planned economy. In the process of China's reform and opening up, with the continuous development and improvement of the market economic system, the problem of insufficient production quantity has been solved, but the problem of excess production capacity has been exposed. Whether the management will carry out real earnings management is affected by multiple internal and external factors, such as the internal factors of the enterprise's own governance level, financing ability and the external factors of the industry regulatory environment, etc. Then whether the current increasingly prominent problem of excess production capacity in China will affect the real earnings management of enterprises is the question to be discussed below.

This paper firstly combs the literature related to overcapacity and real earnings management, and then uses the theory of information asymmetry, signal transmission theory and opportunistic behavior theory, combined with the current situation of listed companies in China, puts forward the main hypothesis and the adjustment effect hypothesis of this paper. In order to verify the hypothesis, this paper selected 23,644 data of all listed companies from 2010 to 2021 as research samples, built relevant models, conducted multiple regression analysis and robustness test, and finally analyzed the mechanism of corporate financialization in the relationship between the two in further research. The results show that:first,there is a significant positive correlation between excess capacity and real earnings management, that is, the more serious excess capacity is, the higher the degree of real earnings management is;second,good internal control, high ownership concentration and stable economic policies can weaken the positive correlation between the two;third,corporate financialization plays an intermediary role in the positive impact of overcapacity on real earnings management.

This paper explores the impact of excess capacity on the real earnings management of enterprises, enricfies the research on the influencing factors of real earnings management, provides ideas for the regulatory agencies to identify the real earnings management behavior of enterprises in a timely manner, and expands the research on the microeconomic consequences of excess capacity, with a view to attracting the attention of the society and solving the problem of excess capacity as soon as possible with the joint efforts of the government and enterprises.