国际经济与贸易学院知识库

 近年来，服务贸易飞速发展，呈现出极大的增长潜力，成为了当前各国对外贸易发展的新引擎。2023 年中国商务部数据统计显示，我国的服务贸易进出口总额在 2022 年达到了 59801.9 亿元，贸易总量连续九年位居全球第二。其中服务出口总额 28522.4 亿元，同比增长 12.1%。作为构建新发展格局的关键一环，服务贸易的发展离不开互联网的全球化以及数据跨境流动。但跨境数据自由流动可能对国家安全带来巨大冲击，因此各国对其采取了不同程度的限制措施。在此背景下，本文探讨一国跨境数据流动限制对服务贸易出口的影响。为我国调整跨境数据流动限制力度，促进服务贸易发展提出建议。 本文首先从理论层面出发，深入探讨跨境数据流动限制如何影响服务贸易出口。其次通过构建固定效应模型，以 2014 年至 2021 年 45 个国家或地区作为样本，对跨境数据流动限制与服务贸易出口之间的关系进行实证检验，并进一步分部门进行异质性检验以及机制分析检验。研究结果如下：（1）为了实现捍卫数据主权、保障国家安全以及维护个人隐私的多层次政策目标，各个国家已经开始制定相应的国内法律法规，以确保构建安全的数据流动环境，形成了以美国、欧盟、中国为代表的数据治理框架。且近年来大部分国家的跨境数据流动限制呈逐渐升高的趋势，发展中国家的跨境数据流动限制水平总体高于发达国家。（2）基准回归结果分析表明，跨境数据流动限制阻碍服务贸易出口。且跨境数据流动限制对发达国家服务贸易出口的抑制作用小于发展中国家；对数字服务贸易等新兴服务贸易部门的抑制作用高于传统服务贸易。（3）作用机制表明，一国实施的跨境数据流动限制通过提高出口企业的贸易成本，减少技术创新从而阻碍服务贸易出口。而数字基础设施建设水平的提高会削弱数据流动限制对服务贸易出口的抑制效应。最后，本文从把握数据治理尺度，积极构建中式数据治理体系、提高信息通信基础设施建设，优化信息网络环境、积极参与数字贸易国际规则的制定，提高国际治理话语权、持续推动服务业高质量发展，增强服务业出口竞争力等方面提出对策，助推我国服务贸易高水平对外开放。

In recent years, the growth rate of trade in services in the international market has far exceeded that of trade in goods, showing great growth potential, and has become the most dynamic form of trade in current international trade. According to the statistics of the Ministry of Commerce of China in 2023, the total import and export volume of China's service trade will reach 5,980.19 billion yuan in 2022, ranking second in the world for nine consecutive years. Among them, the total export of services was 2,852.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.1%. As a key part of building a new development pattern, the development of trade in services is inseparable from the globalization of the Internet and the cross-border flow of data. However, the free flow of data across borders can have a huge impact on national security, so countries have adopted different degrees of restrictive measures. In this context, this paper starts from the entry points of cross-border data flow restrictions, and discusses the impact of cross-border data flow restrictions on service trade exports. It makes suggestions for China to adjust the restrictions on cross-border data flow and promote the development of trade in services. This paper first explains the impact of restrictive measures on cross-border data flow on service trade exports and its transmission mechanism from the theoretical level. Secondly, by constructing a fixed-effect model, taking 45 countries or regions from 2014 to 2021 as samples, the relationship between cross-border data flow restrictions and service trade exports is empirically tested, and the heterogeneity analysis and mechanism analysis are further carried out by sector. The results of the study are as follows: (1) In order to achieve the multiple policy objectives of safeguarding personal privacy, safeguarding national security, defending data sovereignty and promoting the development of domestic industries, countries have begun to formulate or revise corresponding domestic laws and regulations to ensure the construction of a safe data flow environment, and have formed a data governance framework represented by the United States and the European Union. In recent years, the restrictions on cross-border data flow in most countries have gradually increased, and the restrictions on cross-border data flow in developing countries are generally higher than those in developed countries. (2) The analysis of benchmark regression results shows that with the increase of the level of data flow restrictions, the trade inhibition effect on service exports is becoming more and more significant. Moreover, the trade suppression effect of data restriction policy on data-intensive sectors is more prominent. (3) The mechanism of action shows that the restriction of cross-border data flow inhibits the export of service trade by increasing the trade cost of export enterprises and reducing technological innovation. The improvement of the level of digital infrastructure construction will weaken the inhibitory effect of data restrictions on service trade exports. Finally, based on the above research results, this paper puts forward countermeasures from the aspects of continuously improving the construction of domestic legal system, standardizing the Chinese-style data governance system, improving the construction of information and communication infrastructure, optimizing the information network environment, actively participating in the formulation of international rules for digital trade, improving the discourse power of international governance, continuously promoting the high quality development of the service industry, and enhancing the export competitiveness of the service industry, so as to promote the high-level opening up of China's service trade.