会计学院知识库

当前，人工智能的浪潮正在涌来，并且随着我国政策的大力支持我国人工 智能产业的规模迅速扩张,市场当中有关于人工智能企业的各项融资以及投资活 动也变得越来越频繁，因此对于人工智能企业的价值评估日渐重要。与传统的 企业不同，人工智能企业的周期性特性比较明显，且企业内部各项专利的占比 也较大，对于高水平人才的需求也更大，因此除了资产负债表所列示的企业的 价值之外，还包括企业的成长能力以及未来的获利能力以及投资者的长远眼光 的价值。因此，本文的研究可以在某种程度上充实利用 Schwartz-Moon 模型的 理论研究，对于人工智能企业价值评估的发展也起到了添砖加瓦的作用，可能 会在一定程度上为企业的管理者提供决策的方向以及对于企业的管理方向。 当前国内在事务所对于人工智能企业的评估当中大多采取传统的评估方法， 但由于我国市场环境受到多种因素影响，并且传统的评估方法无法顾及到人工 智能企业存在的潜在成长价值，对于企业的现金流量也无法进行准确的预测， 因此本文决定采用实物期权的理论对人工智能企业进行估值。实物期权方法可 以从某种程度上改善企业现金流的不确定性，通过概率统计的办法对企业的现 金流进行描述，衡量了企业管理柔性的价值，适应于人工智能企业价值评估的 整体特点。本文在经过多番比较后选择了实物期权法当中 Schwartz-Moon 模型， 并结合在模拟法中比较普遍使用的蒙特卡洛模拟对其人工智能企业进行估值。 在案例评估中选取了一家典型的人工智能上市公司——中科创达，通过对中科 创达的一些主要财务指标进行了分析调整了模型的参数，并通过使用 wind 提供 的人工智能板块中于评估基准日五年前 19 家上市的企业作为参考样本，最终将 参数代入软件 MATLAB 当中得出评估结果。 在对案例企业进行评估之后，可以得出在使用 Schwartz-Moon 模型进行评 估的过程当中，一定要注重对于参数的选取以及相应的修正，并且对于人工智 能企业的价值和特点判断也要准确无误，最后要对案例公司进行深入研究，了 解其财务状况以及基本情况，这样对于整个的评估过程就提供了坚实的基础。

At present, the wave of artificial intelligence is coming, and with the strong support of China's policy, the scale of China's artificial intelligence industry is expanding rapidly, and the financing and investment activities of artificial intelligence enterprises in the market are becoming more and more frequent, so the value evaluation of artificial intelligence enterprises is becoming increasingly important. Unlike traditional enterprises, artificial intelligence enterprises have obvious cyclical characteristics, and the proportion of internal patents is also large, and the demand for high-level talents is also greater. Therefore, in addition to the value of the enterprise listed in the balance sheet, it also includes the growth ability of the enterprise and the future profitability and the long-term vision of investors. Therefore, the research in this paper can provide theoretical research using Schwartz-Moon model to some extent, and contribute to the development of AI enterprise value assessment. It may also provide decision-making direction and management direction for enterprise managers to some extent. At present, most domestic firms adopt traditional evaluation methods for the evaluation of AI enterprises. However, due to the influence of many factors on China's market environment, traditional evaluation methods cannot take into account the potential growth value of AI enterprises, and the cash flow of enterprises cannot be accurately  predicted. Therefore, this paper decides to use the theory of real options to evaluate artificial intelligence enterprises. The real option method can improve the uncertainty of enterprise cash flow to some extent, and describe the enterprise cash flow by probability and statistics method, measure the value of enterprise management flexibility, and adapt to the overall characteristics of artificial intelligence enterprise value assessment. After many comparisons, this paper selects the Schwartz-Moon model in the real option method, and combines it with Monte Carlo simulation, which is widely used in the simulation method, to evaluate its artificial intelligence enterprises. In the case evaluation, a typical listed company of artificial intelligence CKE Chuangda was selected, and the parameters of the model were adjusted by analyzing some major financial indicators of CKE Chuangda. Moreover, 19 listed enterprises in the artificial intelligence sector provided by wind five years before the base date of evaluation were used as reference samples. Finally, the parameters are substituted into the software MATLAB to get the evaluation results. After the evaluation of the case enterprise, it can be concluded that in the process of using the Schwartz-Moon model for evaluation, it is necessary to pay attention to the selection of parameters and corresponding corrections, and the value and characteristics of the artificial intelligence enterprise should be accurately judged. Finally, it is necessary to conduct in-depth research on the case company to  understand its financial status and basic information. This provides a solid foundation for the entire evaluation process.