国际经济与贸易学院知识库

当前，世界百年未有之大变局加速演进，逆全球化思潮抬头，全球性问题的日益加剧使得中国出口企业面临的贸易政策不确定性大幅攀升。面对复杂多变的国际形势，出口企业如果不掌握关键核心技术，就容易陷入被“卡脖子”的窘境。然而，出口企业核心竞争力的形成并非一蹴而就，要突破经济发展和国家安全面临的重大瓶颈问题，改变关键核心技术受制于他人的被动局面，需要出口企业保持创新持续性，培养自身动态创新能力。

为探讨贸易政策不确定性与中国出口企业创新持续性的关系，本文首先在文献梳理的基础上从金融错配、经营收益和技术人员三个方面探究贸易政策不确定性上升影响出口企业创新持续性的机制。其次，运用文本分析法得到中国出口企业所面临的贸易政策不确定性，并将其与 2007—2021 年 A 股非金融类出口上市企业财务数据相结合，通过构建固定效应模型进行实证分析，同时以多种方法进行内生性检验和稳健性检验以验证结论可靠性。再次，以引入交互项的方式对出口企业所处生命周期阶段、产权性质、高新企业认定情况进行异质性分析，并通过“两步法”验证金融错配、经营收益和技术人员机制的有效性；最后，采用调节效应模型对企业政策不确定性感知能力的作用进行拓展性分析。

研究发现：贸易政策不确定性上升将显著抑制中国出口企业的创新持续性，在进行内生性分析和一系列稳健性检验后，该结论依然成立，且这种抑制作用在非国有、成长期及通过高新技术认定的出口企业中表现更为明显；机制检验表明，贸易政策不确定性上升会降低出口企业的经营收益，加剧出口企业面临的金融错配和技术人员流失，进而对出口企业创新持续性产生抑制作用；拓展性分析显示，出口企业较高的政策不确定性感知能力可以削弱贸易政策不确定性上升对其创新持续性产生的不利影响。基于以上结论，本文提出对策建议如下：第一，继续推进高水平对外开放，降低贸易政策不确定性；第二，加强信息服务保障，助力出口企业形成贸易政策变动预期；第三，强化政策支持，为出口企业持续创新提供资金和人才保障；第四，增强出口企业政策不确定性感知能力，提升其风险防范意识；第五，扩大国内外科技合作交流，提高出口企业持续创新能力。

At present, momentous changes of a like not seen in a century are accelerating across the world, anti-globalisation trend is on the rise, the intensification of global problems make China's export enterprises are facing the uncertainty of trade policy has risen sharply. In the face of the complex and changing international situation, if the export enterprises do not master the key core technology, it is easy to fall into the dilemma of being ‘necked’. However, the formation of core competitiveness of export enterprises cannot be achieved overnight. To break through the major bottlenecks faced by economic development and national security, and to change the passive situation of key core technologies being subjected to others, it is necessary for export enterprises to maintain the continuity of innovation and to cultivate their own dynamic innovation capability.

In order to explore the relationship between trade policy uncertainty and innovation persistence of Chinese export enterprises, this paper firstly explores the mechanism by which rising trade policy uncertainty affects the innovation persistence of export enterprises from the three aspects of financial mismatch, operating income and technicians based on literature combing. Secondly, we use textual analysis to obtain the trade policy uncertainty faced by Chinese export enterprises, and combine it with the financial data of A-share non-financial export listed enterprises from 2007-2021, and carry out empirical analyses by constructing a fixed-effect model, while endogeneity tests and robustness tests are conducted in various ways to verify the reliability of the conclusions. Thirdly, we analyze the heterogeneity of export enterprises in terms of their life cycle stage, property rights, and high-tech enterprise recognition by introducing interaction terms, and verify the effectiveness of financial mismatch, operating income and technician mechanism through the two-step method; Finally, we adopt the moderating effect model to expand the analysis of the role of enterprises' ability to perceive policy uncertainty.

The study finds that: rising trade policy uncertainty will significantly inhibit the innovation continuity of Chinese export enterprises, and the conclusion still holds after endogeneity analysis and a series of robustness tests, and this inhibition is more obvious in non-state-owned, growth stage and high-tech certified export enterprises. The mechanism test shows that rising trade policy uncertainty will reduce the operating income of export enterprises, aggravate the financial mismatch and technician loss faced by export enterprises, and then inhibit the innovation continuity of export enterprises. Expansion analysis shows that the higher policy uncertainty perception ability of export enterprises can weaken the negative impact of rising trade policy uncertainty on their innovation continuity. Based on the above conclusions, this paper proposes the following countermeasures: first, continue to promote the high level of opening up to the outside world to reduce trade policy uncertainty; second, strengthen the information service guarantee to help export enterprises to form the expectation of changes in trade policy; third, strengthen the policy support to provide financial and human resources for the continuous innovation of export enterprises; fourth, enhance the ability of export enterprises to perceive policy uncertainty, and improve their risk prevention awareness; fifth, expand the domestic and foreign scientific and technological cooperation capacity, and improve their risk prevention awareness.