国际经济与贸易学院知识库

RCEP 的签署生效对亚太地区乃至全球贸易发展带来了新的发展机遇。作为 全球最大货物出口国，我国以机电产品为主要出口类别，其出口贸易在RCEP框 架下占据重要地位，并对我国出口贸易的高质量发展具有深远的战略意义。 本文基于相关文献综述，分析了影响机电产品贸易流量的因素，描述了我国 机电产品对RCEP国家的出口现状，并基于时变随机前沿引力模型，探究了影响 机电产品出口贸易效率与潜力的主客观因素，测算了我国向RCEP国家出口机电 产品的贸易效率及潜力，结合国别年均贸易效率值与贸易可拓展潜力值，划分了 RCEP 国家市场类型，并提出了相应的政策建议。论文的研究结果表明：第一， 我国对RCEP国家机电产品的出口现状存在着出口规模逐年扩大但出口增长率稳 定性不足、出口产品结构不合理且以劳动密集型产品为主、出口国别分布不均的 特征，同时我国与RCEP国家之间，机电产品贸易呈现出较弱的竞争优势和较强 的贸易互补性；第二，双边经济规模、进口国人口数量、拥有共同边界以及拥有 共同语言显著促进了我国对RCEP国家机电产品的出口。同时，物流绩效指数、 政府支出水平及我国专利申请量也都是提升我国对RCEP国家机电产品出口贸易 效率的有利因素。但贸易自由度对我国对RCEP国家机电产品出口的影响不显著， 表明非关税壁垒可能在控制贸易流动方面有一定的影响；第三，我国机电产品对 RCEP 国家的年均出口贸易效率整体稳定在较低水平，且国别年均贸易效率值及 贸易潜力值均存在较大差异，其中日本、韩国、越南属于重点开拓市场，印度尼 西亚、马来西亚、缅甸、菲律宾属于潜力挖掘型市场，新加坡、澳大利亚、泰国 属于成熟市场，而文莱、柬埔寨、老挝、新西兰属于完全不成熟市场。基于上述 研究结论，论文提出了提高自身经济发展水平、完善与RCEP国家基础设施建设、 加强技术研发创新、降低贸易制度成本和“因国制宜”开展机电产品贸易的政策 建议，以谋求我国对RCEP国家机电产品出口潜力的最大释放。

The signing and entry into force of RCEP has brought new opportunities for trade in the Asia-Pacific region and even the world As the world's largest exporter of goods, China takes mechanical and electrical products as its main export category, and its export trade occupies an important position under the framework of RCEP, which has far-reaching strategic significance for China's export trade. Based on the review of relevant literature, this paper describes the factors affecting the trade flow of mechanical and electrical products, describes the current situation of China's export of mechanical and electrical products to RCEP countries, and explores the subjective and objective factors affecting the export trade efficiency and potential of mechanical and electrical products based on the time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model, and calculates the trade efficiency and potential of China's export of mechanical and electrical products to RCEP countries. By combining the average annual trade efficiency values with the potential for trade expansion, it categorizes the market types of RCEP countries and offers corresponding policy recommendations. The empirical results show: firstly, the present dynamics of China's trade in mechanical and electrical goods with RCEP member nations is characterized by an expanding export scale but insufficient stability in export growth rate, an unreasonable export product structure dominated by labor-intensive products, and an uneven distribution of export countries. Meanwhile, China's trade with RCEP countries in mechanical and electrical products is characterized by weak competitiveness and strong complementarity; secondly, bilateral economic scale, the population size of the importing country, having a common border, and sharing a common language significantly promote the exportation of mechanical and electrical goods from China to nations within the RCEP framework. Additionally, the logistics performance index, government spending level, and the number of patent applications in China are all favorable factors for enhancing the efficiency of China's export trade in mechanical and electrical products to RCEP countries. However, the insignificance of the trade freedom variable indicates that non-tariff barriers may play a more significant role in controlling trade flows; thirdly, the average annual export trade efficiency of China's mechanical and electrical products to RCEP countries is overall stable at a low level, with significant differences in average annual trade efficiency and trade potential values among countries. Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam are identified as potential markets that require key development, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, and the Philippines as potential markets for exploration, Singapore, Australia, and Thailand as mature markets, while Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, and New Zealand are considered completely immature markets. Based on these conclusions, the paper suggests policy recommendations to improve China's own economic development level, enhance infrastructure construction with RCEP countries, strengthen technological research and innovation, reduce trade system costs, and carry out mechanical and electrical product trade tailored to specific countries, aiming to maximize the release of the potential for exporting China's mechanical and electrical products to RCEP member states.