耦合GMOP与FLUS模型的黄河流域甘肃段生态风险评估与预测

doi:10.13292/j.1000-4890.202405.040

	耦合GMOP与FLUS模型的黄河流域甘肃段生态风险评估与预测
其他题名	Assessment and prediction of ecological risk in Gansu section of the Yellow River Basin coupled with GMOP and FLUS models
	许静1 ; 廖星凯2 ; 甘崎旭2 ; 周茅先1
	2023
发表期刊	生态学杂志
卷号	43 期号:05 页码:1498-1508
摘要	黄河流域甘肃段生态地位关键，生态资源独特，生态系统脆弱，科学评估流域生态风险动态演变对于保障流域生态安全具有重要意义。本研究基于2000、2010和2020年土地覆被数据，耦合GMOP(灰色多目标决策)与GeoSOS-FLUS模型，揭示了2000—2020年黄河流域甘肃段生态风险变化趋势，预测了2030年多情景下土地利用格局与生态风险动态，并结合标准差椭圆、风险指数质心等方法探究了生态风险空间分异特征。结果表明：2000—2020年，研究区林地增加、草地萎缩、建设用地快速扩张，生态风险以较低与中等程度为主，生态风险指数由0.166升高到0.172;2020—2030年，自然发展情景下，建设用地面积显著增加，草地与耕地面积退缩，生态风险等级上升，低风险区面积减少8143.63 km2;生态保护情景下，林地面积增长，生态风险等级降低，低与较低风险区总面积增加10552.17 km2;经济发展与综合发展情景下，耕地扩张明显，低与较低风险区总面积分别增加7164.60与9708.15 km2;与自然发展情景相比，其他3种模拟情景下均呈高风险区质心向西北迁移，低风险区质心向西南迁移，且高风险区分布集聚的特征。研究结果可以为黄河流域甘肃段生态风险防范提供理论依据。
其他摘要	It is important to scientifically assess the ecological risk dynamics of Gansu section of the Yellow River Basin for ensuring ecological security,which has characteristics of critical ecological status,unique ecological re-sources,and fragile ecosystems.Based on land cover data in 2000,2010,and 2020,we coupled GMOP(Grey Multi-Objective Planning)and GeoSOS-FLUS models to examine the trend of ecological risk changes in this region from 2000 to 2020.We further predicted the land use pattern and ecological risk in 2030 under multiple scenarios.The standard deviation ellipse analysis and risk index centroid analysis were combined to explore the spatial varia-tions of ecological risks.The results showed that from 2000 to 2020,the area of woodland increased,that of grass-land shrank,and the construction land expanded rapidly.The ecological risk was mainly at low and moderate lev-els,with the ecological risk index increasing from 0.166 to 0.172.From 2020 to 2030,under the natural develop-ment scenario,the area of construction land will significantly increase,the area of grassland and cultivated land will decrease,the ecological risk level will increase,and the area of minor risk region will reduce by 8143.63 km2.Un-der the ecological protection scenario,the area of woodland will expand,the level of ecological risk will reduce,and the area of minor and low risk regions will increase by a total of 10552.17 km2.Under the economic develop-ment and comprehensive development scenarios,the total area of minor and low risk regions will increase by 7164.60 and 9708.15 km2,respectively.Compared with the natural development scenario,other three simulation scenarios exhibit the characteristics of extremely high risk region centroid migrating to the northwest,minor risk re-gion centroid migrating to the southwest,and extremely high risk regions gathering.The results can provide theoreti-cal basis for ecological risk prevention in Gansu section of the Yellow River Basin.
关键词	景观生态风险土地利用 GMOP模型 FLUS模型多情景黄河流域甘肃段
DOI	10.13292/j.1000-4890.202405.040
URL	查看原文
收录类别	北大核心 ; 中国科技核心期刊 ; CSCD
ISSN	1000-4890
语种	中文
原始文献类型	学术期刊
中图分类号	X826;P901
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.lzufe.edu.cn/handle/39EH0E1M/36238
专题	农林经济管理学院经济学院
通讯作者	许静
作者单位	1.兰州财经大学农林经济管理学院; 2.兰州财经大学经济学院
第一作者单位	农林经济管理学院
通讯作者单位	农林经济管理学院
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	许静,廖星凯,甘崎旭,等. 耦合GMOP与FLUS模型的黄河流域甘肃段生态风险评估与预测[J]. 生态学杂志,2023,43(05):1498-1508.
APA	许静,廖星凯,甘崎旭,&周茅先.(2023).耦合GMOP与FLUS模型的黄河流域甘肃段生态风险评估与预测.生态学杂志,43(05),1498-1508.
MLA	许静,et al."耦合GMOP与FLUS模型的黄河流域甘肃段生态风险评估与预测".生态学杂志 43.05(2023):1498-1508.