国际经济与贸易学院知识库

  近年来，在高质量共建“一带一路”背景之下，中国与其他国家的联系日益密切。通过不断扩大与沿线国家的产业合作，中国对外直接投资额目前已居世界前三。但是，中国经济在快速发展的同时也出现了一系列的问题，传统工业体系在环境污染和生产要素配置不合理等问题的多重压力下，对经济增长的拉动作用正逐渐减弱，并且日益严重的产能过剩问题也急需找到合理有效的解决途径。中国经济正面临一个迫切转型的“拐点”，而要解决产业结构中存在的矛盾，OFDI（对外直接投资）则是有效的方法之一。对外直接投资一方面可以通过统筹中国和被投资国双边生产资源来提高生产效率，另一方面也可以将我国的优势产能转移到被投资国，同时还有机会引进更发达东道国的先进技术，从而对推进国内的产业结构优化升级产生积极影响。

  目前中国对外直接投资仍然缺乏成熟的经验，为保障投资的效益，国内企业应该慎重选择投资的区域和产业。东盟与中国在地理位置上相邻，资源互补，长期以来双边经贸合作十分紧密，特别是在“2021年中国—东盟建立对话关系30周年峰会”上，中国东盟正式宣布建立全面战略伙伴关系。由此可见，东盟将成为中国今后经济发展过程中最重要的合作伙伴之一，也是中国对外直接投资的重点目标区域。扩大中国对东盟国家的投资a合作，加强中国与东盟国家在产业链上的联系，对推进“一带一路”建设和促进双方的共同发展具有积极意义。同时研究中国对东盟直接投资是否会给国内产业结构带来正向影响，又或者中国对东盟直接投资应如何调整和优化才可以收获更多的积极效果，都是当下值得研究的重点课题。

  本文在梳理小岛清的边际产业扩张理论、斯蒂芬·海默的垄断优势理论、费农的产品生命周期理论以及威廉·配弟、亚当·斯密、大卫·李嘉图等前人研究成果的基础上，归纳总结对外直接投资对投资母国产业结构升级的影响机制。再从分析中国当下产业结构不合理、产能过剩以及经济由“高速发展”向“高质量发展”转变过程中所面临的问题出发,通过引用面板向量自回归模型进行实证分析，验证了中国对东盟直接投资与中国自身产业结构发展之间的关联性。实证分析结果表明：中国对东盟各国的直接投资与中国国内产业结构的优化调整之间，存在长期的稳定性和积极的正向作用。同时也反映出，中国对东盟直接投资短期内存在一定的制约，但从长期效果来看，可以拉动中国国内产业结构的优化并提升产业层次。基于此，本文进一步指出：中国扩大OFDI可以加快推动国内产业结构稳定升级，但需要采取因地制宜的对外投资政策，并且应注重提升投资风险防范意识。

  In recent years, China has become increasingly connected with other countries in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative. Through expanding industrial cooperation with countries along the Belt and Road, China's outbound direct investment now ranks among the top three in the world. However, while China's economy is developing steadily and rapidly, there are also a series of problems. Under the multiple pressures of environmental pollution and unreasonable allocation of production factors, the traditional industrial system's driving role in economic growth is gradually weakening, and the increasingly serious problem of overcapacity urgently needs to find a reasonable and effective solution. China's economy is facing an "inflection point" of urgent transformation, and OFDI is one of the effective ways to solve the contradictions existing in the industrial structure. On the one hand, OFDI can coordinate the bilateral production resources of China and the recipient countries to improve production efficiency. On the other hand, it can also transfer China's advantageous production capacity to the recipient countries. At the same time, it also has the opportunity to introduce advanced technologies from more developed host countries, thus having a positive impact on promoting the optimization and upgrading of domestic industrial structure.

  At present, China's foreign direct investment still lacks mature experience, in order to ensure investment benefits, domestic enterprises should carefully choose the region and industry of investment. ASEAN and China are geographically adjacent, complementary resources, and bilateral economic and trade cooperation has been very close for a long time, especially at the "China-Asean Dialogue Relations 30th Anniversary Summit in 2021", China and ASEAN officially announced the establishment of a comprehensive strategic partnership. It can be seen that ASEAN will become one of the most important partners of China in the process of economic development in the future, and it is also a key target region for China's foreign direct investment. Expanding China's investment cooperation with ASEAN countries and strengthening the links between China and ASEAN countries in the industrial chain are of positive significance to advancing the construction of the Belt and Road Initiative and promoting the common development of both sides. At the same time, whether China's direct investment in ASEAN will have a positive impact on the domestic industrial structure, or how China's direct investment in ASEAN should be adjusted and optimized to achieve more positive effects, are the key topics worth studying at present.

  Based on the marginal industrial expansion theory of Kojima Kiyoshi, the monopoly advantage theory of Stephen Hemmer, the product life cycle theory of Finon and the research achievements of William Pedy, Adam Smith and David Ricardo, this paper summarizes the influence mechanism of OFDI on the industrial structure upgrading of the home country. Then, starting from the analysis of China's current unreasonable industrial structure, excess capacity and the problems faced in the process of economic transformation from "high-speed development" to "high-quality development", this paper verifies the correlation between China's direct investment in ASEAN and the development of China's own industrial structure by using panel vector autoregressive model for empirical analysis. The empirical analysis results show that there is long-term stability and positive effect between China's direct investment in ASEAN countries and the optimization and adjustment of China's domestic industrial structure. At the same time, it also reflects that China's direct investment in ASEAN has certain constraints in the short term, but from the long-term effect, it can promote the optimization of China's domestic industrial structure and enhance the industrial level. Based on this, this paper further points out that China's expansion of OFDI can accelerate the stable upgrading of domestic industrial structure, but it needs to adopt foreign investment policies according to local conditions, and pay attention to improving the awareness of investment risk prevention.